NBER Publications by Marcy Avrin

This paper develops a Social Security simulation model. Combining data from the 1975 Social Security Exact Match File, which merges individual records from the1975 Current Population Survey with OASI earnings and benefit records, with a model of income growth, retirement and labor force participation patterns, life expectancy, age-earnings profiles, etc., we present estimates of a variety of types of information concerning the long-run financial status of the OASI system. Estimates are developed for current legislation and a variety of possible reforms of the aggregate real present value of benefits, taxes and deficit; and expected benefits, taxes and net transfers for different population groups by age and income. Among the more important findings of the first in a series of analyses usin...