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NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

NBER Publications by Ingrid Woolard

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June 2007Why Has Unemployment Risen in the New South Africa
with Abhijit Banerjee, Sebastian Galiani, Jim Levinsohn, Zoƫ McLaren: w13167
We document the rise in unemployment in South Africa since the transition in 1994. We describe the likely causes of this increase and analyze whether the increase in unemployment is due to structural changes in the economy (resulting in a new equilibrium unemployment rate) or to negative shocks (that temporarily have increased unemployment). We conclude the former are more important. Our analysis includes a multinomial logit approach to understanding transitions in individual-level changes in labor market status using the first nationally representative panel in South Africa. Our analysis highlights several key constraints to addressing unemployment in South Africa.

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