NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

NBER Publications by Fernando Parro

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Working Papers and Chapters

May 2014The Impact of Regional and Sectoral Productivity Changes on the U.S. Economy
with Lorenzo Caliendo, Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, Pierre-Daniel Sarte: w20168
We study the impact of regional and sectoral productivity changes on the U.S. economy. To that end, we consider an environment that captures the effects of interregional and intersectoral trade in propagating disaggregated productivity changes at the level of a sector in a given U.S. state to the rest of the economy. The quantitative model we develop features pairwise interregional trade across all 50 U.S. states, 26 traded and non-traded industries, labor as a mobile factor, and structures and land as an immobile factor. We allow for sectoral linkages in the form of an intermediate input structure that matches the U.S. input-output matrix. Using data on trade flows by industry between states, as well as other regional and industry data, we obtain the aggregate, regional and sectoral elast...
November 2012Estimates of the Trade and Welfare Effects of NAFTA
with Lorenzo Caliendo: w18508
We build into a Ricardian model sectoral linkages and differing productivity levels across sectors to understand how the gains from tariff reductions in a given sector spread to the rest of the economy. We also propose a new method to estimate sectoral trade elasticities consistent with any trade model that delivers a gravity trade equation. We apply our model and use our estimated elasticities to identify the impact of NAFTA's tariff reductions on exports and imports of all members. We find that the trade and welfare effects of tariff reductions are reduced by more than 40% when the structure of production does not take into account intermediate goods in production and input-output linkages. We then decompose the effects of tariff changes for NAFTA members and find that 93% of Mexico's, 5...

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