NBER Working Papers and Publications by Fernando Parro

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Working Papers and Chapters and Reporter Articles

April 2017Distortions and the Structure of the World Economy
with Lorenzo Caliendo, Aleh Tsyvinski: w23332
We develop a model of the world economy as input-output relationships subject to distortions. We then propose a methodology to solve the identification problem, common to the literature on misallocation in input-output relationships, of separating sectoral TFPs from the sectoral distortions. Using both the input shares and the consumption shares within the CES production and CES consumption structure we derive simple closed-form sufficient statistics for the sectoral distortions and for the sectoral TFPs. We then derive a closed-form solution of the elasticities of each entry in the world input-output matrix to distortions. We compute a total of more than half a million internal distortions and TFPs and document significant heterogeneity of those across countries and sectors. We then calc...
May 2015The Impact of Trade on Labor Market Dynamics
with Lorenzo Caliendo, Maximiliano Dvorkin: w21149
We develop a dynamic labor search model where production and consumption take place in spatially distinct labor markets with varying exposure to domestic and international trade. The model recognizes the role of labor mobility frictions, goods mobility frictions, geographic factors, and input-output linkages in determining equilibrium allocations. We show how to solve the equilibrium of the model without estimating productivities, reallocation frictions, or trade frictions, which are usually difficult to identify. We use the model to study the dynamic labor market outcomes of aggregate trade shocks. We calibrate the model to 38 countries, 50 U.S. states and 22 sectors and use the rise in China's import competition to quantify the aggregate and disaggregate employment and welfare effects on...
May 2014The Impact of Regional and Sectoral Productivity Changes on the U.S. Economy
with Lorenzo Caliendo, Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, Pierre-Daniel Sarte: w20168
We study the impact of intersectoral and interregional trade linkages in propagating disaggregated productivity changes to the rest of the economy. Using regional and industry data we obtain the aggregate, regional and sectoral elasticities of measured TFP, GDP, and employment to regional and sectoral productivity changes. We find that the elasticities vary significantly depending on the sectors and regions affected and are importantly determined by the spatial structure of the economy. We use these elasticities to perform a variety of counterfactual exercises including a detailed study of the effects of the boom in the Computers and Electronics industry in California.
November 2012Estimates of the Trade and Welfare Effects of NAFTA
with Lorenzo Caliendo: w18508
We build into a Ricardian model sectoral linkages, trade in intermediate goods, and sectoral heterogeneity in production to quantify the trade and welfare effects from tariff changes. We also propose a new method to estimate sectoral trade elasticities consistent with any trade model that delivers a multiplicative gravity equation. We apply our model and use our estimated elasticities to identify the impact of NAFTA's tariff reductions. We find that Mexico's welfare increases by 1.31%, U.S.'s welfare increases by 0.08%, and Canada's welfare declines by 0.06%. We find that intra-bloc trade increases by 118% for Mexico, 11% for Canada and 41% for the U.S. We show that welfare effects from tariff reductions are reduced when the structure of production does not take into account intermediate g...

Published: “Estimates of the Trade and Welfare Effects of NAFTA” (with F. Parro) NBER Working Paper No. 18508, 2012 The Review of Economic Studies (2015) 82(1): 1-44 citation courtesy of

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