NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

NBER Publications by Ethan B. Kapstein

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Working Papers and Chapters

August 2013Predation, Taxation, Investment and Violence: Evidence from the Philippines
with Eli Berman, Joseph Felter, Erin Troland: w19266
This paper explores the relationship between investment and political violence through several possible mechanisms. Investment as a predictor of future violence implies that low private sector investment today provides a robust indicator of high violence tomorrow. "Rent-capture" or predation asserts that investment increases violence by motivating extortion by insurgents. A "hearts and minds" approach links investment to political violence in two possible ways: through an opportunity cost mechanism by which improved economic conditions raise the cost of rebel recruitment; and through a psychological "gratitude" effect which reduces cooperation of noncombatants with rebels. Finally, tax capture implies that government will increase coercive enforcement in an attempt to control areas where i...
September 2012Predation, Economic Activity and Violence: Evidence from the Philippines
with Eli Berman, Joseph Felter, Erin Troland: w18375
This paper explores the relationship between economic activity and political violence through the lenses provided by several different mechanisms. Investment as a predictor of future violence implies that low private sector investment today provides a robust indicator of high violence tomorrow. "Rent-capture" or predation asserts that economic programs and business investment will increase violence by increasing extortion by insurgents. "Hearts and minds" counterinsurgency has been asserted to link economic activity to political violence in three ways, through an opportunity cost mechanism by which improved economic conditions reduce the cost of rebel recruitment; through a "hope and gratitude" effect by which development assistance generates support for government, reducing cooperation wi...

Contact and additional information for this authorAll NBER papers and publicationsNBER Working Papers only

 
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