NBER Publications by Eduardo Morales

Contact and additional information for this authorAll NBER papers and publicationsNBER Working Papers only

Working Papers and Chapters

January 2015Accounting for Changes in Between-Group Inequality
with Ariel Burstein, Jonathan Vogel: w20855
We provide an assignment model to decompose changes in between-group wage inequality into changes in the composition of the workforce, the productivity/demand for tasks, computerization, and labor productivity. The model incorporates comparative advantage between many groups of workers, many types of equipment, and many tasks and yet may be parameterized and estimated in a transparent manner. Our identification of parameters, measurement of shocks, and the equilibrium equation determining wages are all very similar to what have been used in previous reduced-form analyses. We use U.S. data on the allocation of workers to occupations and computer usage as well as changes in average wages across worker groups between 1984 and 2003 to parameterize our model. We find that computerization and ch...
February 2014Gravity and Extended Gravity: Using Moment Inequalities to Estimate a Model of Export Entry
with Gloria Sheu, Andrés Zahler: w19916
Exporting firms continuously change export destinations. We present reduced-form evidence indicating firms are more likely to export to countries that are geographically close to their previous destinations. This evidence for path dependence in exports is robust to controlling for firm-country specific unobservable determinants of export choices that might be correlated over time and space. Accordingly, we develop a model of export dynamics in which firms' exports in each market may depend on: (a) how similar this market is to the firm's home country (gravity), and (b) how similar it is to other countries to which the firm has previously exported (extended gravity). Given the large number of possible export paths from which forward-looking firms may choose, estimation approaches based on d...
September 2013Accounting for Expectational and Structural Error in Binary Choice Problems: A Moment Inequality Approach
with Michael J. Dickstein: w19486
Many economic decisions involve a binary choice - for example, when consumers decide to purchase a good or when firms decide to enter a new market. In such settings, agents' choices often depend on imperfect expectations of the future payoffs from their decision (expectational error) as well as factors that the econometrician does not observe (structural error). In this paper, we show that expectational error, under an assumption of rational expectations, is a source of classical measurement error, and we propose a novel moment inequality estimator that accounts for both expectational error and structural error in a binary choice model. With simulated data and Chilean firm-level customs data, we illustrate the identifying power of our inequalities and show the biases that arise when one ig...

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