NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

NBER Publications by Chadwick C. Curtis

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Working Papers and Chapters and Reporter Articles

September 2015Demographics and Aggregate Household Saving in Japan, China, and India
with Steven Lugauer, Nelson C. Mark: w21555
We present a model of household life-cycle saving decisions in order to quantify the impact of demographic changes on aggregate household saving rates in Japan, China, and India. The observed age distributions help explain the contrasting saving patterns over time across the three countries. In the model simulations, the growing number of retirees suppresses Japanese saving rates, while decreasing family size increases saving for both China and India. Projecting forward, the model predicts lower household saving rates in Japan and China.
February 2011Demographic Patterns and Household Saving in China
with Steven Lugauer, Nelson C. Mark: w16828
This paper studies the effect that changing demographic patterns have had on the household saving rate in China. We undertake a quantitative investigation using an overlapping generations (OLG) model where agents live for 85 years. Consumers begin to exercise decision making when they are 18. From age 18 to 60, they work and raise children. Dependent children's utility enter into parent's utility where parents choose the consumption level of the young until they leave the household. Working agents give a portion of their labor income to their retired parents and save for their own retirement while the aged live on their accumulated assets and support from their children. Remaining assets are bequeathed to the living upon death. We parameterize the model and take future demographic changes,...

Published: Chadwick C. Curtis & Steven Lugauer & Nelson C. Mark, 2015. "Demographic Patterns and Household Saving in China," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 58-94, April. citation courtesy of

July 2010Business Cycles, Consumption and Risk-Sharing: How Different Is China?
with Nelson Mark: w16154
Can standard business-cycle methodology be applied to China? In this chapter, we address this question by examining the macroeconomic time series and identifying dimensions in which China differs from economies (such as Canada and the U.S.) that are typically the subject of business-cycle research. We show that naively applying the standard business-cycle tools to China is no more ridiculous than applying it to Canada, although the dimensions along which the model struggles is different. For China, the model cannot account for the low level of consumption (or high saving) as a proportion of income observed in the data. An examination of provincial level consumption data suggests that the absence of channels for intranational consumption risk sharing may be an important reason why the busin...

Business Cycles, Consumption and Risk-Sharing: How Different is Chinaā€¯ (with C. Curtis), in Yin-Wong Cheung, Vikas Kakkar, and Guonan Ma, eds., The Evolving Role of Asia in Global Finance, forthcoming.

Contact and additional information for this authorAll NBER papers and publicationsNBER Working Papers only

 
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