NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

NBER Publications by Bruce Russett

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Working Papers and Chapters

March 1992Diminished Expectations of Nuclear War and Increased Personal Savings: Evidence From Individual Survey Data
with Joel Slemrod: w4031
At the end of 1983 Gallup polls showed that 52 percent of Americans thought that the probability of a world war in the next 10 years was 50% or higher; by 1989 the percentage had dropped to 29%. Fear of war of this pervasiveness is bound to have an effect on decisions about present versus uncertain future consumption. This paper investigates the cross-sectional relationship between saving and fear of war using responses to telephone surveys conducted during April and October of 1990. The analysis shows that an individual's professed level of fear about the likelihood of nuclear war was significantly negatively related to the probability of being a saver rather than a dissaver, to changes in actual saving, and to saving plans relative to actual savings. Fear of war had an independent effect...

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