NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

NBER Publications by Brian K. Chen

Contact and additional information for this authorAll NBER papers and publicationsNBER Working Papers only

Working Papers and Chapters

January 2016Forecasting Trends in Disability in a Super-Aging Society: Adapting the Future Elderly Model to Japan
with Hawre Jalal, Hideki Hashimoto, Sze-Chuan Suen, Karen Eggleston, Michael Hurley, Lena Schoemaker, Jay Bhattacharya: w21870
Japan has experienced pronounced population aging, and now has the highest proportion of elderly adults in the world. Yet few projections of Japan’s future demography go beyond estimating population by age and sex to forecast the complex evolution of the health and functioning of the future elderly. This study adapts to the Japanese population the Future Elderly Model (FEM), a demographic and economic state-transition microsimulation model that projects the health conditions and functional status of Japan’s elderly population in order to estimate disability, health, and need for long term care. Our FEM simulation suggests that by 2040, over 27 percent of Japan’s elderly will exhibit 3 or more limitations in IADLs and social functioning; almost one in 4 will experience difficulties with 3 o...

Published: Brian K. Chen & Hawre Jalal & Hideki Hashimoto & Sze-chuan Suen & Karen Eggleston & Michael Hurley & Lena Schoemaker & Jay Bhattacharya, 2016. "Forecasting Trends in Disability in a Super-Aging Society: Adapting the Future Elderly Model to Japan," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, .

November 2013Moral Hazard and Economies of Scope in Physician Ownership of Complementary Medical Services
with Paul J. Gertler, Chuh-Yuh Yang: w19622
When physicians own complementary medical service facilities such as clinical laboratories and imaging centers, they gain financially by referring patients to these service entities. This situation creates an incentive for the physician to exploit the consumers' trust by recommending more services than they would demand under full information. This moral hazard cost, however, may be offset by gains in economies of scope if the complementary services are integrated into the physician's practice. We assess the extent of moral hazard and economies of scope using data from Taiwan, which introduced a "separating" policy, similar to the Stark Law in the US, that restricts physician ownership of pharmacies unless they are fully integrated into the physician's practice. We find that physicians who...

Contact and additional information for this authorAll NBER papers and publicationsNBER Working Papers only

 
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