NBER Publications by Antonio Ciccone

Two different models - one based on local geographical externalities and the other on the variety of only locally available intermediate services - are shown to give rise to a simple, estimable relation between employment density and productivity. Using data on gross state output for the U.S., we find that agglomeration more than offsets congestion effects in denser areas. While our estimate of the elasticity of productivity with respect to density is small, it explains more than 50% of the observed state productivity differences, given the large differences in density.

One critical aspect of economic development is that productivity growth and a rising standard of living are realized through more roundabout methods of production and increasing specialization of intermediate inputs and producer services. We use an extended version of the Judd-Grossman-Helpman model of dynamic monopolistic competition to show that an economy that inherits a small range of specialized inputs can be trapped into a lower stage of development. The limited availability of specialized inputs forces the final goods producers to use a labor intensive technology, which in turns implies a small inducement to introduce new intermediate products. The start-up costs, which make the intermediate goods producers subject to dynamic increasing returns, and pecuniary externalities that resu...