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NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

NBER Publications by Alexis Diamond

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Working Papers and Chapters

January 2007Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California's Tobacco Control Program
with Alberto Abadie, Jens Hainmueller: w12831
Building on an idea in Abadie and Gardeazabal (2003), this article investigates the application of synthetic control methods to comparative case studies. We discuss the advantages of these methods and apply them to study the effects of Proposition 99, a large-scale tobacco control program that California implemented in 1988. We demonstrate that following Proposition 99 tobacco consumption fell markedly in California relative to a comparable synthetic control region. We estimate that by the year 2000 annual per-capita cigarette sales in California were about 26 packs lower than what they would have been in the absence of Proposition 99. Given that many policy interventions and events of interest in social sciences take place at an aggregate level (countries, regions, cities, etc.) and affec...

Published: Abadie, A., A. Diamond, and J. Hainmueller. “Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies:Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program." Journal of the American Statistical Association 105 (2010): 493-505.

Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California's Tobacco Control Program
with Alberto Abadie, Jens Hainmueller: t0335
Building on an idea in Abadie and Gardeazabal (2003), this article investigates the application of synthetic control methods to comparative case studies. We discuss the advantages of these methods and apply them to study the effects of Proposition 99, a large-scale tobacco control program that California implemented in 1988. We demonstrate that following Proposition 99 tobacco consumption fell markedly in California relative to a comparable synthetic control region. We estimate that by the year 2000 annual per-capita cigarette sales in California were about 26 packs lower than what they would have been in the absence of Proposition 99. Given that many policy interventions and events of interest in social sciences take place at an aggregate level (countries, regions, cities, etc.) and affec...

Contact and additional information for this authorAll NBER papers and publicationsNBER Working Papers only

 
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