NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

NBER Publications by Ajay Mahal

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Working Papers and Chapters

March 2009Needle Sharing and HIV Transmission: A Model with Markets and Purposive Behavior
with Brendan O'Flaherty, David E. Bloom: w14823
Without well designed empirical studies, mathematical models are an important way to use data on needle infection for inferences about human infection. We develop a model with explicit behavioral foundations to explore an array of policy interventions related to HIV transmission among IDU. In our model, needle exchanges affect the spread of HIV in three ways: more HIV-negative IDUs use new needles instead of old ones; needles are retired after fewer uses; and the proportion of HIV-positive IDUs among users of both old and new needles rises owing to sorting effects. The first and second effects reduce the long-run incidence of HIV, while the third effect works in the opposite direction. We compare the results of our model with those of Kaplan and O'Keefe (1993) that is the foundation of man...
June 1995Does the AIDS Epidemic Really Threaten Economic Growth?
with David E. Bloom: w5148
This study examines the claim that the AIDS epidemic will slow the pace of economic growth. We do this by examining the association, across fifty-one developing and industrial countries for which we were able to assemble data, between changes in the prevalence of AIDS and the rate of growth of GDP per capita. Our analysis uses well- established empirical growth models to control for a variety of factors possibly correlated with AIDS prevalence that might also influence growth. We also account for possible simultaneity in the relationship between AIDS and economic growth. Our main finding is that the AIDS epidemic has had an insignificant effect on the growth rate of per capita income, with no evidence of reverse causality. We also find evidence that the insignificant effect of AIDS on ...

Contact and additional information for this authorAll papers and publicationsWorking Papers onlyWorking Papers with publication info

 
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