Mehmet Fatih Ulu
Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey
Fener Kalamis cad.
Atlihan Sok. No:30/A
Fenerbahce Kadikoy Istanbul
Institutional Affiliation: Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|February 2017||International Spillovers and Local Credit Cycles|
with Julian di Giovanni, Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Yusuf Soner Baskaya: w23149
This paper studies the transmission of the Global Financial Cycle (GFC) to domestic credit market conditions in a large emerging market, Turkey, over the years 2003-13. Matching administrative data covering the universe of corporate loan transactions to bank balance sheets, we document four facts: (1) an easing in global financial conditions leads to lower borrowing costs and an increase in local lending; (2) domestic banks that are more exposed to international capital markets transmit the GFC locally; (3) the fall in borrowing costs is driven by a failure in uncovered interest rate parity (UIP), where the UIP risk premium comoves with the GFC over time; (4) data on posted collateral for new loan issuances show that collateral constraints do not relax during the boom phase of the GFC.
|October 2016||Capital Flows and the International Credit Channel|
with Yusuf Soner Baskaya, Julian di Giovanni, Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, José-Luis Peydro
in NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2016, Richard Clarida, Lucrezia Reichlin, and Michael Devereux, organizers