NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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Mehmet Fatih Ulu

Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey
Fener Kalamis cad.
Atlihan Sok. No:30/A
Fenerbahce Kadikoy Istanbul
Turkey

E-Mail: fatih.ulu@tcmb.gov.tr
Institutional Affiliation: Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

NBER Working Papers and Publications

February 2017International Spillovers and Local Credit Cycles
with Julian di Giovanni, Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Yusuf Soner Baskaya: w23149
This paper studies the impact of the Global Financial Cycle (GFC) on domestic credit market conditions in a large emerging market, Turkey, over 2003-13. We use administrative data covering the universe of corporate loan transactions matched to firm and bank balance sheets to provide evidence on four facts that are critical in the transmission of the GFC to emerging markets: (1) uncovered interest parity (UIP) is violated at the firm-bank level - firms pay a lower interest rate when borrowing in foreign currency from their domestic banks; (2) the UIP risk premium, both at the firm-bank level and at the country level, strongly co-moves with the GFC over time; (3) during the boom phase of the GFC, the UIP risk premium falls and capital flows into Turkey, lowering domestic borrowing costs and ...
October 2016Capital Flows and the International Credit Channel
with Yusuf Soner Baskaya, Julian di Giovanni, Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, José-Luis Peydro
in NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2016, Richard Clarida, Lucrezia Reichlin, and Michael Devereux, organizers
 
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