Table 1. Total population growth estimates and projections in OECD countries 1 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 United States 1.7 1.2 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 Japan 1.2 1.0 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 -0.3 -0.5 -0.6 -0.6 Germany 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 France 0.9 1.1 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 Italy 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.5 -0.7 -0.8 -1.0 United Kingdom 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 Canada 2.7 1.8 1.4 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.4 Australia 2.3 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.4 Austria 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.7 Belgium 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 Czech Republic 0.7 0.3 0.5 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 Denmark 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 Finland 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 Greece 1.0 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.4 -0.1 -0.4 -0.6 -0.7 -0.8 Hungary 0.7 0.3 0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 Iceland 2.1 1.5 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 Ireland -0.5 0.4 1.4 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.2 Korea 2.1 2.5 1.8 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.3 Luxembourg 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.5 1.2 0.6 0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 Mexico 2.9 3.2 2.9 2.1 1.7 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.3 Netherlands 1.3 1.3 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 New Zealand 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.8 1.4 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4 Norway 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 Poland 1.8 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 Portugal 0.5 0.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 Spain 0.8 1.0 1.1 0.5 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 Sweden 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 Switzerland 1.3 1.4 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 Turkey 2.8 2.5 2.3 2.4 1.7 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 OECD Total 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.1 Memorandum item: Total population, in millions OECD Total 774.3 872.5 962.2 1043.2 1117.7 1170.1 1207.7 1228.9 1231.9 1220.9 1. Average annual percent change over 10 years to date shown. Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 1998 Revision. Table 2. Total population estimates and projections in OECD countries In thousands 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 United States 186,158 210,111 230,406 254,076 278,357 297,989 317,124 332,619 342,612 349,318 Japan 94,096 104,331 116,807 123,537 126,714 127,315 123,893 118,145 111,691 104,921 Germany 72,673 77,709 78,304 79,365 82,220 82,032 80,996 79,252 76,531 73,303 France 45,684 50,772 53,880 56,718 59,080 60,597 61,500 61,632 60,998 59,883 Italy 50,200 53,822 56,434 57,023 57,298 55,782 52,913 49,533 45,642 41,197 United Kingdom 52,372 55,632 56,330 57,561 58,830 59,331 59,845 59,619 58,289 56,667 Canada 17,909 21,324 24,593 27,791 31,147 33,929 36,641 39,011 40,790 42,311 Australia 10,276 12,535 14,569 16,888 18,886 20,615 22,321 23,777 24,860 25,761 Austria 7,048 7,467 7,549 7,705 8,211 8,348 8,279 8,045 7,630 7,094 Belgium 9,153 9,656 9,852 9,951 10,161 10,136 10,017 9,780 9,383 8,918 Czech Republic 9,552 9,805 10,283 10,306 10,244 10,066 9,743 9,229 8,562 7,829 Denmark 4,581 4,929 5,123 5,140 5,293 5,327 5,283 5,176 4,991 4,793 Finland 4,430 4,606 4,780 4,986 5,176 5,235 5,266 5,209 5,054 4,898 Greece 8,327 8,793 9,643 10,220 10,645 10,554 10,141 9,571 8,949 8,233 Hungary 9,984 10,338 10,707 10,365 10,036 9,627 9,167 8,627 8,068 7,488 Iceland 176 204 228 255 281 304 321 334 340 341 Ireland 2,834 2,954 3,401 3,503 3,730 4,016 4,302 4,484 4,616 4,710 Korea 25,003 31,923 38,124 42,869 46,844 49,976 51,893 52,898 52,700 51,275 Luxembourg 314 339 364 381 431 457 464 460 448 430 Mexico 36,945 50,596 67,570 83,226 98,881 112,891 124,976 134,912 142,301 146,645 Netherlands 11,480 13,032 14,144 14,952 15,786 15,973 15,876 15,617 14,986 14,156 New Zealand 2,372 2,820 3,113 3,360 3,862 4,207 4,540 4,834 5,061 5,248 Norway 3,581 3,877 4,086 4,241 4,465 4,648 4,777 4,838 4,815 4,758 Poland 29,561 32,526 35,574 38,119 38,765 39,190 39,318 38,680 37,686 36,256 Portugal 8,826 9,044 9,766 9,869 9,875 9,777 9,515 9,163 8,716 8,137 Spain 30,455 33,779 37,542 39,303 39,630 39,089 37,627 35,611 33,200 30,226 Sweden 7,480 8,043 8,310 8,559 8,910 9,039 9,099 9,047 8,848 8,661 Switzerland 5,362 6,187 6,319 6,834 7,386 7,603 7,624 7,503 7,178 6,745 Turkey 27,509 35,321 44,438 56,098 66,591 76,054 84,187 91,295 96,908 100,664 OECD Total 774,342 872,474 962,240 1,043,201 1,117,734 1,170,107 1,207,651 1,228,905 1,231,854 1,220,865 Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 1998 Revision. Table 3. Elderly population growth estimates and projections in OECD countries 1 Population aged 65 and over 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 United States 2.7 1.9 2.2 2.0 1.0 1.2 3.0 2.7 0.7 0.3 Japan 2.7 3.2 3.7 3.4 3.9 2.4 1.7 -0.1 0.5 -0.1 Germany 2.3 2.4 1.4 -0.3 1.3 1.9 0.7 1.7 0.6 -0.6 France 1.1 2.1 1.4 0.5 1.7 0.7 2.1 1.4 0.8 -0.1 Italy 1.9 2.3 2.4 1.6 1.8 1.1 0.9 1.2 0.9 -0.9 United Kingdom 1.2 1.6 1.7 0.6 0.4 0.7 1.6 1.5 0.6 -0.3 Canada 2.5 2.2 3.3 3.0 2.5 2.0 3.2 2.8 0.9 0.4 Australia 2.7 1.9 2.9 3.0 1.9 1.9 3.1 2.4 1.4 0.6 Austria 1.7 2.2 1.0 -0.1 0.4 1.3 1.4 2.3 1.1 -0.3 Belgium 1.4 1.7 0.9 0.6 1.2 0.5 1.7 1.7 0.4 -0.5 Czech Republic 1.3 3.6 1.4 -0.6 0.8 1.2 2.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 Denmark 2.2 2.2 2.0 0.8 0.0 1.2 1.8 1.0 0.5 -0.8 Finland 1.8 2.8 3.1 1.5 1.4 1.4 2.9 1.2 -0.2 -0.3 Greece 2.9 3.6 2.6 1.0 3.2 1.1 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.2 Hungary 2.8 2.8 1.9 -0.4 0.6 0.4 1.5 0.1 0.8 0.8 Iceland 2.4 2.6 2.2 1.9 1.8 1.4 3.0 2.8 1.3 0.6 Ireland 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.8 0.6 1.5 2.8 2.2 1.4 1.7 Korea 3.0 2.4 3.3 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.2 4.2 2.3 0.5 Luxembourg 1.6 2.3 1.5 0.4 1.9 1.5 1.9 1.9 0.9 -0.1 Mexico 3.3 2.4 1.7 2.5 3.6 3.7 4.0 4.0 3.9 2.4 Netherlands 2.8 2.5 2.1 1.7 1.3 1.5 2.7 2.0 0.8 -0.8 New Zealand 1.8 1.6 2.6 1.9 1.9 1.7 2.9 2.6 1.3 0.6 Norway 2.3 2.3 1.9 1.4 0.0 0.8 2.4 1.6 1.0 -0.4 Poland 2.8 4.6 3.0 0.6 1.9 0.6 3.0 1.7 0.4 1.4 Portugal 1.8 1.7 2.1 2.8 1.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.5 0.4 Spain 2.0 2.8 2.0 3.1 2.2 0.7 1.0 1.7 1.6 0.1 Sweden 2.2 2.1 2.1 1.2 0.2 1.3 1.8 0.9 0.4 -0.4 Switzerland 1.8 2.7 2.2 1.1 1.0 1.6 2.0 2.3 0.9 -0.6 Turkey 3.6 4.8 3.1 1.4 4.9 2.6 3.5 4.0 3.4 2.6 OECD Total 2.2 2.4 2.2 1.6 1.8 1.6 2.2 2.0 1.1 0.4 Memorandum item: Total population aged 65 and over, in millions OECD Total 66.2 83.6 103.6 121.5 145.8 170.2 211.2 256.5 286.9 298.1 1. Average annual percent change over 10 years to date shown. Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 1998 Revision. Table 4. Elderly population estimates and projections in OECD countries Population aged 65 and over, in thousands 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 United States 17,101 20,667 25,793 31,478 34,834 39,321 52,705 68,673 73,692 75,899 Japan 5,397 7,371 10,560 14,809 21,614 27,389 32,491 32,239 33,809 33,323 Germany 8,370 10,641 12,213 11,872 13,444 16,247 17,468 20,721 22,027 20,794 France 5,317 6,535 7,525 7,932 9,413 10,087 12,389 14,275 15,402 15,285 Italy 4,674 5,863 7,420 8,738 10,412 11,609 12,733 14,415 15,745 14,377 United Kingdom 6,119 7,198 8,491 9,050 9,433 10,162 11,859 13,757 14,545 14,107 Canada 1,343 1,677 2,309 3,117 3,972 4,856 6,678 8,806 9,669 10,057 Australia 870 1,046 1,397 1,883 2,284 2,766 3,758 4,756 5,456 5,811 Austria 849 1,051 1,163 1,153 1,206 1,377 1,581 1,991 2,226 2,151 Belgium 1,095 1,292 1,413 1,499 1,695 1,775 2,093 2,476 2,582 2,464 Czech Republic 836 1,190 1,374 1,289 1,397 1,569 2,057 2,233 2,420 2,600 Denmark 485 605 738 802 804 908 1,083 1,198 1,260 1,157 Finland 319 422 572 667 771 888 1,176 1,319 1,289 1,253 Greece 687 980 1,267 1,399 1,908 2,124 2,299 2,504 2,765 2,820 Hungary 903 1,194 1,438 1,383 1,474 1,538 1,778 1,804 1,946 2,108 Iceland 14 18 23 27 32 37 50 66 75 79 Ireland 317 331 365 398 423 492 648 803 926 1,096 Korea 832 1,052 1,453 2,144 3,152 4,639 6,366 9,565 12,024 12,665 Luxembourg 34 43 49 51 62 72 87 105 114 114 Mexico 1,698 2,155 2,563 3,294 4,671 6,686 9,867 14,665 21,579 27,336 Netherlands 1,034 1,324 1,628 1,920 2,177 2,522 3,278 3,994 4,328 3,978 New Zealand 205 239 310 374 450 530 707 910 1,034 1,093 Norway 398 500 603 692 690 744 939 1,106 1,219 1,176 Poland 1,706 2,680 3,600 3,833 4,647 4,935 6,657 7,915 8,250 9,468 Portugal 705 832 1,021 1,343 1,553 1,670 1,853 2,100 2,430 2,536 Spain 2,499 3,305 4,010 5,430 6,745 7,210 7,945 9,414 11,029 11,154 Sweden 895 1,099 1,354 1,522 1,552 1,761 2,106 2,305 2,404 2,314 Switzerland 539 702 875 981 1,087 1,278 1,561 1,967 2,145 2,024 Turkey 972 1,550 2,099 2,403 3,876 5,000 7,021 10,386 14,494 18,825 OECD Total 66,213 83,563 103,626 121,482 145,778 170,193 211,233 256,468 286,885 298,062 Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 1998 Revision. Table 5. Population growth estimates and projections for the age group 15-64 in OECD countries 1 Population aged 15-64 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 United States 0.9 1.5 1.6 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.2 -0.1 0.3 0.2 Japan 1.9 1.8 0.9 0.9 0.0 -0.6 -0.9 -0.6 -1.2 -0.9 Germany 0.6 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -1.0 -0.7 -0.4 France 0.3 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 Italy 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.7 -0.1 -0.4 -0.8 -1.5 -1.8 -1.1 United Kingdom 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 -0.3 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 Canada 2.1 2.3 2.4 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.2 -0.1 0.3 0.3 Australia 1.6 2.2 1.9 1.8 1.2 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 Austria 0.0 -0.1 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.2 -0.4 -1.1 -1.1 -0.9 Belgium 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -0.7 -0.6 Czech Republic 0.3 0.5 -0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 -1.0 -0.9 -1.4 -1.8 Denmark 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.7 -0.2 Finland 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.2 -0.4 Greece 1.1 0.3 0.9 1.0 0.4 -0.2 -0.7 -1.0 -1.5 -1.5 Hungary 0.4 0.7 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.9 -0.8 -1.2 -1.4 Iceland 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.4 1.1 1.0 0.4 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 Ireland -0.9 0.4 1.6 0.7 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.0 -0.4 Korea 2.0 2.5 3.1 2.3 1.3 0.5 0.2 -0.5 -0.7 -0.5 Luxembourg 0.2 0.4 1.0 0.7 1.0 0.5 -0.2 -0.7 -0.6 -0.5 Mexico 2.3 3.0 3.3 3.3 2.5 1.9 1.3 0.7 0.1 -0.1 Netherlands 1.0 1.5 1.4 1.0 0.4 0.2 -0.6 -1.1 -1.0 -0.4 New Zealand 1.6 2.0 1.6 1.1 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.3 Norway 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 0.0 Poland 1.0 1.6 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.5 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 -1.1 Portugal 0.4 0.1 1.0 0.5 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.8 -1.3 -1.3 Spain 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.1 0.3 -0.2 -0.6 -1.2 -1.9 -1.7 Sweden 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 -0.5 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 Switzerland 1.3 1.2 0.4 1.1 0.6 0.3 -0.4 -1.1 -0.9 -0.6 Turkey 2.3 2.4 2.6 3.2 2.6 1.6 1.2 0.6 0.2 -0.1 OECD Total 1.1 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.3 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 Memorandum item: Total population aged 15-64, in millions OECD Total 152.5 176.8 209.0 247.6 282.5 307.8 318.8 317.1 306.6 294.4 1. Average annual percent change over 10 years to date shown. Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 1998 Revision. Table 6. Population estimates and projections for the age group 15-64 in OECD countries In thousands 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 United States 111,659 129,886 152,709 166,929 183,752 201,725 206,151 204,570 209,942 213,695 Japan 60,273 71,888 78,734 85,998 86,335 81,099 74,101 70,018 62,250 57,087 Germany 48,842 49,025 51,614 54,729 56,025 54,917 52,995 47,855 44,425 42,706 France 28,320 31,633 34,350 37,302 38,620 39,925 38,483 36,919 35,512 34,586 Italy 33,093 34,733 36,444 39,238 38,721 37,015 34,061 29,365 24,432 21,875 United Kingdom 34,072 34,943 36,068 37,489 38,328 39,237 38,062 35,914 34,418 33,406 Canada 10,559 13,209 16,700 18,911 21,276 23,442 23,812 23,592 24,313 25,074 Australia 6,313 7,874 9,488 11,306 12,704 13,996 14,499 14,787 15,123 15,515 Austria 4,640 4,597 4,845 5,211 5,609 5,745 5,540 4,942 4,404 4,009 Belgium 5,904 6,085 6,453 6,645 6,725 6,819 6,422 5,817 5,409 5,105 Czech Republic 6,229 6,533 6,496 6,806 7,150 7,156 6,459 5,925 5,150 4,289 Denmark 2,940 3,176 3,317 3,463 3,538 3,518 3,364 3,122 2,922 2,872 Finland 2,764 3,051 3,236 3,356 3,469 3,495 3,223 3,033 2,963 2,850 Greece 5,434 5,626 6,176 6,854 7,144 7,016 6,564 5,920 5,093 4,374 Hungary 6,553 6,992 6,921 6,884 6,855 6,696 6,120 5,664 5,044 4,374 Iceland 101 120 143 164 183 202 209 209 207 205 Ireland 1,636 1,703 1,995 2,148 2,515 2,698 2,768 2,839 2,851 2,743 Korea 13,684 17,440 23,710 29,648 33,623 35,455 36,314 34,506 32,083 30,401 Luxembourg 213 222 246 264 291 307 302 283 266 252 Mexico 18,618 24,921 34,511 47,843 61,434 74,099 84,388 90,482 91,637 91,015 Netherlands 7,003 8,152 9,358 10,305 10,750 10,970 10,341 9,281 8,421 8,102 New Zealand 1,387 1,685 1,971 2,201 2,537 2,807 2,938 2,997 3,085 3,188 Norway 2,256 2,429 2,577 2,746 2,898 3,063 3,015 2,891 2,784 2,787 Poland 17,963 21,075 23,346 24,711 26,593 27,834 26,231 24,927 23,674 21,139 Portugal 5,548 5,611 6,212 6,553 6,708 6,639 6,347 5,843 5,113 4,505 Spain 19,602 21,036 23,555 26,257 27,118 26,673 25,125 22,257 18,409 15,490 Sweden 4,939 5,267 5,328 5,502 5,736 5,934 5,619 5,308 5,079 4,975 Switzerland 3,556 4,014 4,197 4,700 5,010 5,163 4,974 4,441 4,041 3,802 Turkey 15,194 19,239 24,904 34,065 43,867 51,491 58,014 61,590 62,886 62,382 OECD Total 152,477 176,845 208,985 247,632 282,460 307,777 318,776 317,066 306,645 294,373 Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 1998 Revision. Table 7. Median age estimates and projections in OECD countries Years 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 United States 29.6 28.2 30.1 32.8 35.8 37.8 39.0 40.6 41.8 42.1 Japan 25.5 29.0 32.6 37.4 41.2 43.8 46.9 49.3 49.5 49.0 Germany 34.7 34.3 36.4 37.7 40.0 44.1 46.9 47.6 48.7 48.4 France 33.0 32.3 32.5 34.7 37.6 40.3 42.3 43.6 44.1 43.9 Italy 31.3 32.9 34.0 37.4 40.6 44.9 49.0 52.2 53.0 53.2 United Kingdom 35.4 33.7 34.6 36.1 38.2 41.2 42.7 43.6 44.8 44.5 Canada 26.4 26.0 29.2 32.8 36.8 40.0 41.6 42.8 43.4 42.6 Australia 29.6 27.6 29.4 32.2 35.3 38.0 39.8 41.2 42.1 42.2 Austria 35.4 33.9 34.7 35.6 37.8 41.8 45.1 47.4 49.4 50.2 Belgium 35.2 34.5 34.1 36.5 39.3 42.6 44.9 46.3 47.2 46.8 Czech Republic 32.8 33.5 33.0 35.2 37.5 40.4 44.7 49.1 51.8 53.3 Denmark 33.0 32.5 34.3 37.1 39.0 41.8 44.0 43.7 44.2 44.4 Finland 28.2 29.6 32.8 36.4 39.4 42.3 43.5 44.6 45.2 44.5 Greece 29.1 33.4 34.2 36.1 39.4 43.0 46.6 50.1 52.3 52.5 Hungary 32.1 34.1 34.4 36.4 38.1 39.8 43.3 46.3 48.2 49.2 Iceland 25.4 24.6 26.9 30.0 32.9 35.5 37.9 40.0 42.0 43.3 Ireland 29.8 27.6 26.4 29.1 32.3 34.7 38.0 40.4 40.7 41.2 Korea 19.2 19.0 21.8 26.9 31.5 36.0 39.8 42.3 43.6 44.4 Luxembourg 35.2 35.4 34.8 36.5 37.8 40.3 42.6 44.4 45.6 46.1 Mexico 17.5 16.7 17.2 19.7 23.3 27.0 30.7 34.3 37.3 39.5 Netherlands 28.8 28.6 31.3 34.5 37.8 42.1 45.7 46.7 47.6 47.8 New Zealand 27.4 25.6 28.3 31.1 34.0 36.3 37.8 39.3 40.3 40.6 Norway 34.4 33.0 33.3 35.4 37.4 40.3 42.2 42.7 43.6 43.8 Poland 26.5 28.2 29.6 32.3 35.1 37.3 40.6 44.3 46.3 46.0 Portugal 28.0 28.6 29.1 34.5 37.3 40.5 44.5 48.0 49.4 50.0 Spain 29.6 30.2 30.3 33.9 37.9 42.3 46.9 51.4 54.1 54.3 Sweden 36.2 35.4 36.3 38.3 40.0 42.7 44.9 45.3 46.8 46.3 Switzerland 32.5 32.0 34.8 36.4 38.4 42.3 45.6 47.3 48.7 49.4 Turkey 20.3 19.1 19.8 22.2 25.6 29.6 33.0 35.4 37.7 39.1 OECD average (unweighted) 29.7 29.6 30.9 33.6 36.5 39.6 42.4 44.5 45.8 46.2 Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 1998 Revision. Table 8. Female fertility rate estimates and projections in OECD countries Medium variant estimates and projections 1 1950 2 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 United States 3.4 3.7 2.5 1.8 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 Japan 2.7 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 Germany 2.2 2.3 2.3 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 France 2.7 2.7 2.6 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 Italy 2.3 2.4 2.5 1.9 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.7 United Kingdom 2.2 2.5 2.5 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 Canada 3.7 3.9 2.5 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 Australia 3.2 3.4 2.9 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 Austria 2.1 2.5 2.5 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 Belgium 2.3 2.5 2.3 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 Czech Republic 2.7 2.4 1.9 2.3 1.9 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 Denmark 2.5 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 Finland 3.0 2.8 2.1 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 Greece 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.3 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.8 Hungary 2.7 2.2 2.0 2.1 1.8 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 Iceland 3.7 4.0 3.2 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 Ireland 3.4 3.7 3.9 3.5 2.3 1.9 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 Korea 5.4 6.3 4.7 2.9 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 Luxembourg 2.0 2.2 2.2 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 Mexico 6.9 7.0 6.8 5.3 3.6 2.8 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 Netherlands 3.1 3.1 2.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 New Zealand 3.6 3.9 3.2 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 Norway 2.6 2.8 2.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 Poland 3.6 3.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.9 Portugal 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.4 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.8 Spain 2.6 2.8 2.9 2.6 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.7 Sweden 2.2 2.2 2.1 1.6 1.9 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.0 Switzerland 2.3 2.3 2.3 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 Turkey 6.8 6.5 5.6 4.5 3.8 2.5 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 1. Data refer to five year averages to date shown. 2. Data for 1950 refer to the period 1950-55. Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 1998 Revision. Table 9. UN net migration rate estimates and projections in OECD countries Medium variant estimates and projections 1 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 United States 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2 Japan 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Germany 2.9 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 France 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Italy 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 United Kingdom 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 Canada 5.6 5.1 4.7 4.4 4.2 4.1 Australia 4.3 4.0 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.1 Austria 4.9 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 Belgium 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Czech Republic 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Denmark 2.1 1.3 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 Finland 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Greece 3.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Hungary 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Iceland 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Ireland 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Korea -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Luxembourg 8.6 2.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 Mexico -3.3 -2.6 -2.2 -1.9 -1.6 -1.4 Netherlands 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 New Zealand 2.7 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 Norway 2.3 1.7 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 Poland -0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Portugal 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Spain 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Sweden 3.4 2.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 Switzerland 4.3 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 Turkey 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1. Net migration per 1000 persons. Data refer to five year averages to date shown. Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 1998 Revision. Table 10. Longevity estimates and projections in OECD countries Medium variant estimates and projections for the period shown Life expectancy, men Life expectancy, women Life expectancy, men and women 1960-65 1995-2000 2045-50 1960-65 1995-2000 2045-50 1960-65 1995-2000 2045-50 United States 66.7 73.4 79.0 73.4 80.1 84.6 70.0 76.7 81.8 Japan 66.5 76.8 80.8 71.6 82.9 86.9 69.0 80.0 83.8 Germany 67.4 73.9 79.1 72.9 80.2 84.7 70.3 77.2 81.9 France 67.6 74.2 79.1 74.5 82.0 86.2 71.0 78.1 82.6 Italy 67.4 75.0 79.8 72.6 81.2 85.5 69.9 78.2 82.6 United Kingdom 67.9 74.5 79.4 73.8 79.8 84.6 70.8 77.2 82.0 Canada 68.5 76.1 80.4 74.6 81.8 86.0 71.4 79.0 83.2 Australia 67.8 75.5 80.0 74.2 81.1 85.4 70.9 78.3 82.7 Austria 66.1 73.7 79.0 72.6 80.2 84.7 69.3 77.0 81.7 Belgium 67.9 73.8 79.1 73.9 80.6 85.0 70.8 77.2 82.0 Czech Republic 67.4 70.3 78.1 73.4 77.4 84.3 70.5 73.9 81.2 Denmark 70.3 73.0 77.9 74.4 78.3 83.1 72.3 75.7 80.5 Finland 65.4 73.0 79.6 72.5 80.6 86.0 68.9 76.8 82.7 Greece 67.9 75.6 80.0 71.2 80.7 85.1 69.5 78.1 82.5 Hungary 66.4 66.8 75.8 71.0 74.9 81.5 68.6 70.9 78.7 Iceland 70.8 76.8 81.2 76.1 81.3 85.6 73.4 79.0 83.4 Ireland 68.4 73.6 80.0 72.3 79.2 85.1 70.3 76.4 82.6 Korea 53.6 68.8 76.9 56.9 76.0 82.9 55.2 72.4 79.9 Luxembourg 65.7 73.3 78.9 72.1 79.9 84.7 68.8 76.7 81.8 Mexico 56.4 69.5 76.5 60.6 75.5 82.7 58.3 72.2 78.8 Netherlands 71.1 75.0 79.5 75.8 80.7 85.1 73.4 77.9 82.3 New Zealand 68.3 74.1 79.3 73.9 79.7 84.5 71.0 76.9 81.9 Norway 71.1 75.2 80.8 75.9 81.1 86.7 73.4 78.1 83.7 Poland 65.8 68.2 76.5 71.0 76.9 83.2 68.3 72.5 79.9 Portugal 61.4 71.8 78.1 67.1 78.8 84.1 64.2 75.3 81.1 Spain 67.9 74.5 79.4 72.7 81.5 85.7 70.2 78.0 82.5 Sweden 71.6 76.3 81.4 75.6 80.8 85.9 73.5 78.6 83.6 Switzerland 68.9 75.4 79.9 74.6 81.8 86.0 71.7 78.7 82.9 Turkey 50.5 66.5 76.0 53.7 71.7 81.3 52.1 69.0 78.6 Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 1998 Revision. Table 11. Disability-free and total life expectancy in selected OECD countries Years Life expectancy at Disability-free life Life expectancy at Disability-free life 65 expectancy 65 expectancy Males Females Moderate disability-free life expectancy 1 Australia 1981 13.9 7.9 18.1 10.1 1993 15.7 6.5 19.5 9.1 Canada 1986 14.9 8.5 19.2 9.4 1991 15.6 8.3 19.7 9.2 France 1981 14.1 8.8 18.3 9.8 1991 15.7 10.1 20.1 12.1 Netherlands 1983 14.0 8.0 18.6 7.4 1990 14.4 9.0 19.0 8.0 United States 1980 14.2 6.8 18.4 9.3 1990 15.1 7.4 18.9 9.8 New Zealand 1981 13.3 9.9 17.1 10.5 1993 14.8 10.0 18.4 10.2 Germany 1986 13.8 10.6 17.6 13.0 1995 14.9 12.2 18.7 14.9 Severe disability-free life expectancy 1 Australia 1981 13.9 11.9 18.1 13.8 1993 15.7 13.4 19.5 14.8 Canada 1986 14.9 12.8 19.2 14.9 1991 15.6 13.3 19.7 15.4 France 1981 14.1 13.1 18.3 16.5 1991 Japan 1980 14.6 13.2 17.7 15.8 1990 United Kingdom 1980 12.9 11.8 16.9 15.0 1991 Norway 1975 14.0 13.3 17.2 16.1 1985 14.4 13.3 18.2 16.9 1. Health expectancy concepts are not yet totally harmonised. The "severe disability" measures are more comparable than those for "moderate disability". Source: OECD (1999), A Caring World: The New Social Policy Agenda. Table 12. Employment rate of older workers in OECD countries 1 1980 1985 1990 1995 1999 United States 53.8 51.8 54.0 55.1 57.7 Japan 61.3 60.5 62.9 63.7 63.4 Germany 42.2 35.5 36.8 37.5 38.5 France 50.7 37.2 35.6 33.5 34.2 Italy .. 33.3 32.0 27.0 27.5 United Kingdom .. 47.0 49.2 47.5 49.4 Canada 50.2 46.2 46.3 43.4 46.9 Australia 43.5 37.3 41.8 41.4 44.2 Austria .. .. .. 29.0 29.2 Belgium .. 26.0 21.4 23.3 24.7 Czech Republic .. .. .. 34.8 37.5 Denmark .. 50.1 53.6 49.3 54.2 Finland 47.1 45.4 42.6 34.4 39.2 Greece 2 .. 45.1 40.8 40.5 39.1 Hungary .. .. .. 17.1 19.4 Iceland 3 .. .. 85.4 85.1 85.9 Ireland .. 40.9 38.6 39.2 43.7 Korea .. .. 61.9 63.5 58.1 Luxembourg .. 25.4 28.2 24.0 26.3 Mexico 3 .. .. 54.1 51.2 55.2 Netherlands 36.3 27.3 22.4 22.7 35.3 New Zealand .. .. 41.8 50.4 56.9 Norway 63.9 65.5 61.8 63.1 67.3 Poland .. .. 46.8 45.5 51.3 Portugal 51.3 47.0 47.0 44.7 50.8 Spain 44.7 38.2 36.8 32.1 34.9 Sweden 65.7 65.0 69.4 61.9 64.0 Switzerland .. .. .. 69.8 71.7 Turkey .. .. 42.7 42.4 42.6 Total OECD 4 .. .. 48.0 46.8 48.8 1. Employment of workers aged 55-64 as a percentage of the population aged 55-64. 2. The year 1999 refers to 1998. 3. The year 1990 refers to 1991. 4. For above countries with available data. Source: OECD Labour Force Statistics . Table 13. Unemployment rates and the incidence of long-term unemployment, 1999 Unemployment rate (percentage Unemployed for 12 months or of labour force) more (percentage of unemployed) 15 to 64 years 45 to 64 years 15 to 64 years 45 to 64 years United States 4.3 2.6 6.6 9.9 Japan 4.9 4.0 20.8 25.5 Germany 8.9 10.6 50.8 61.7 France 12.1 8.5 38.6 58.3 Italy 11.8 4.7 60.6 61.6 United Kingdom 6.2 4.6 29.7 43.4 Canada 1 7.6 5.5 11.2 18.1 Australia 7.0 4.6 29.3 47.0 Austria 4.7 4.7 31.7 46.4 Belgium 8.7 6.5 60.5 75.3 Czech Republic 8.7 6.0 36.0 43.9 Denmark 5.2 4.4 20.2 33.4 Finland 10.3 8.3 28.4 45.6 Greece 2 11.0 4.8 54.4 56.4 Hungary 7.0 4.4 49.3 58.0 Iceland 1.9 1.2 9.0 13.0 Ireland 5.9 5.1 .. .. Korea 6.5 4.9 3.8 5.1 Luxembourg 2.4 1.0 31.3 66.9 Mexico 2.1 1.0 1.3 8.7 Netherlands 3.6 2.6 37.7 58.5 New Zealand 6.9 4.6 18.7 32.8 Norway 3.2 1.3 6.8 9.1 Poland 12.6 7.9 41.6 47.4 Portugal 4.9 7.9 40.8 7.2 Spain 15.9 9.8 49.9 60.4 Sweden 7.1 5.5 30.1 47.1 Switzerland 3.2 2.4 34.4 54.5 Turkey 7.7 3.2 32.7 38.9 Unweighted averages: North America 3 4.6 3.0 6.4 12.2 European Union 7.2 5.4 37.7 49.2 OECD Europe 6.9 4.8 35.0 44.8 Total OECD 6.7 4.6 30.8 40.7 1. For Canada, data refer to age groups 15 and over, and 45 and over. 2. Data refer to the year 1998. 3. North America comprises Canada, Mexico and the United States. Source: OECD Unemployment Duration and Labour Force Databases. Table 14. Implicit tax rates on continued work embedded in benefits for the elderly in OECD countries, 1995 Old-age pensions Old age pensions plus: Unemployment related benefits 1 Disability benefits 1 Special early-retirement 2 United States 12 .. .. .. Japan 28 .. .. .. Germany 14 37 46 .. France 14 49 .. 57 Italy 79 ..3 ..3 ..3 United Kingdom 5 15 .. .. Canada 6 .. .. .. Australia 0 20 21 .. Austria 34 34 64 .. Belgium 23 37 44 56 Denmark 0 51 37 22 Finland 22 42 71 .. Ireland 14 32 32 .. Luxembourg 29 65 63 51 Netherlands 8 57 41 .. 4 New Zealand 9 27 .. .. Norway 15 .. 65 17 Portugal 4 33 66 .. Spain 18 33 53 .. Sweden 18 .. 76 .. Switzerland 0 .. .. .. 1. ".." denotes that early retirement into the non-employment benefit system is not an option because of entitlement conditions. 2. ".." denotes that there are no public schemes or that such schemes are not used much. 3. These schemes are not relevant for a worker with a long contribution history as he can benefit from a full old age pension and retire before the standard retirement age. 4. Special early retirement schemes in the Netherlands are not mandatory. Source: Blöndal and Scarpetta (1999), "Early retirement in OECD countries: the role of social security systems," OECD Economic Studies No. 29, 1997/II. Table 15. Expected increase in old-age pensions for a 55 year-old male by working for 10 more years 1 Percentage point increase in the summary replacement rate 2 1967 1995 United States 0 0 Japan 5 3 Germany 13 11 France 25 17 Italy 24 10 United Kingdom 0 10 Canada 23 0 Australia 0 0 Austria 13 12 Belgium 32 15 Czech Republic n.a. 1 Denmark 2 1 Finland 10 4 Greece n.a. 25 Hungary n.a. 1 Iceland n.a. 10 Ireland 0 0 Luxembourg n.a. 19 Netherlands 0 0 New Zealand 0 0 Norway 17 9 Poland n.a. 9 Portugal 15 10 Spain 0 0 Sweden 21 0 Switzerland 12 11 1. It is assumed that the individual started work at the age of 20 so that he has a potential contribution period of 35 years at the age of 55. 2. The pension replacement rate is the ratio of pension benefits to economy-wide average earnings. There is no single pension replacement rate. It can differ according to previous earnings, household composition, other household income, length of contribution periods, annual accrual rates, the age at which pensions are accessed and minimum and maximum levels of pension. Likewise, the denominator depends on the assumptions made to calculate average earnings. The summary replacement rates shown in the table are simple averages of four cases: two earnings levels - economy-wide and 2/3 of average - and two household compositions - a single worker and a worker with a dependent spouse. Source: Blöndal and Scarpetta (1999), "Early retirement in OECD countries: the role of social security systems," OECD Economic Studies No. 29, 1997/II. Table 16. Social expenditures as a per cent of GDP in OECD countries 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 United States 12.8 12.9 13.4 13.6 12.6 12.5 12.7 12.6 12.5 12.6 13.0 14.1 14.7 14.9 14.9 15.0 14.9 14.5 Japan 10.6 11.0 11.4 11.7 11.5 11.5 11.9 12.1 11.8 11.7 11.5 11.5 12.0 12.6 13.2 14.1 14.1 14.3 Germany 22.7 23.5 23.7 23.2 22.9 23.6 23.5 23.8 23.8 22.9 22.2 24.3 25.8 26.3 26.2 26.6 26.7 26.2 France 22.9 24.6 25.5 26.0 26.3 26.6 26.4 26.2 26.0 25.2 26.5 27.0 27.8 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.4 Italy 18.3 19.8 20.3 21.4 20.9 21.3 21.3 21.5 21.6 21.8 23.8 25.7 26.8 27.1 26.8 25.8 26.0 26.4 United Kingdom 19.0 20.5 20.9 21.5 21.8 21.7 22.0 21.3 19.9 19.3 19.6 21.1 23.3 24.0 23.3 23.0 22.6 21.4 Canada 13.6 13.9 16.4 16.6 16.3 16.6 16.7 16.5 16.2 16.4 17.6 19.5 20.2 20.2 19.1 18.1 17.3 16.6 Australia 1 12.0 12.1 12.7 13.9 13.9 14.0 14.1 14.0 13.2 13.3 14.5 15.7 16.8 16.9 16.6 18.3 18.3 17.9 Austria 22.2 .. .. .. .. 23.8 .. .. .. .. 23.6 23.8 24.4 25.9 26.5 26.3 26.2 25.3 Belgium 24.3 25.9 26.6 26.9 26.2 27.1 26.9 26.6 26.2 25.2 25.5 26.3 26.3 27.5 26.9 27.0 27.5 23.5 Czech Republic .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 16.8 17.3 18.7 19.0 18.6 18.5 19.4 Denmark 29.4 29.8 30.0 30.4 28.9 28.1 27.2 27.9 29.1 29.4 28.5 29.5 30.0 31.6 32.4 31.8 31.7 30.8 Finland 18.5 19.0 20.3 20.9 21.8 22.8 23.4 23.8 23.3 23.1 24.8 29.9 33.9 34.0 33.1 31.2 31.0 28.7 Greece 11.4 13.3 15.6 16.2 16.7 17.5 17.3 17.6 17.3 18.1 21.7 21.0 20.7 21.1 21.1 21.3 21.9 22.0 Iceland .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 18.2 18.6 18.2 17.8 Ireland 17.0 17.1 17.8 17.9 17.3 22.1 22.3 21.5 20.1 18.4 18.7 19.5 19.9 19.9 20.0 19.3 18.5 17.6 Korea .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 3.6 3.5 3.7 3.8 3.8 4.0 4.3 4.8 Luxembourg 23.3 25.0 24.2 24.4 23.0 22.8 22.3 23.1 22.2 21.5 21.7 22.3 22.6 23.2 22.6 23.4 23.6 22.4 Mexico 2 .. .. .. .. .. 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.8 3.3 3.7 4.0 4.2 4.7 7.3 7.4 7.9 Netherlands 27.4 28.4 30.0 30.2 29.0 27.5 27.2 27.3 26.9 26.5 28.0 28.1 28.6 28.8 26.9 26.0 25.3 24.2 New Zealand 20.0 18.8 19.4 19.7 18.6 19.5 20.4 20.6 21.1 22.2 22.4 22.7 22.7 21.5 20.2 19.5 19.7 20.9 Norway 18.5 .. .. .. .. 19.7 .. .. 24.9 25.9 26.0 27.2 28.4 28.1 28.0 27.6 26.2 25.1 Poland .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 16.2 23.1 27.4 26.7 25.6 25.1 25.2 24.5 Portugal 11.1 12.0 11.2 11.3 11.2 11.4 12.2 12.5 12.9 12.4 14.1 15.1 15.8 17.3 17.3 17.8 18.3 18.7 Spain 15.7 16.9 16.8 17.5 17.2 18.0 17.8 17.6 18.2 18.4 19.1 19.9 20.7 21.7 21.3 20.6 20.6 19.9 Sweden 28.8 29.7 29.9 30.2 29.0 30.0 30.1 30.3 30.9 30.3 31.1 33.1 36.2 36.7 35.3 33.0 32.5 31.9 Switzerland 14.8 14.5 15.5 15.9 16.1 15.9 16.1 16.3 16.4 16.1 16.3 17.4 18.9 20.4 20.6 20.9 21.7 22.4 Turkey 5.3 4.7 4.8 5.1 4.7 4.4 4.6 4.9 5.4 6.4 7.6 8.1 8.6 8.6 8.0 7.7 6.7 6.5 1. Prior to 1995, data on "superannuation pensions" and "superannuation lump sum" are not available. 2. Prior to 1995, social expenditure were underestimated, particularly with regard to old age cash benefits. Sources: OECD Social Expenditure Database, OECD Economic Outlook no. 67 (June 2000). Table 17. Real growth in expenditure on old age cash benefits in OECD countries 1 Annual percent change, based on 1995 prices and national currencies 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 United States 4.2 3.2 4.4 0.9 2.3 2.9 1.2 2.2 2.6 2.1 3.8 3.2 3.0 2.6 3.1 3.3 4.7 Japan 10.4 8.8 6.1 4.8 6.9 8.6 6.1 4.4 4.5 4.1 3.4 5.3 5.5 6.6 8.7 5.7 4.0 Germany 1.3 1.4 0.9 2.2 1.4 1.2 2.6 3.0 1.7 1.5 10.7 4.4 2.0 3.5 4.9 1.9 2.4 France 4.3 5.1 3.3 3.7 3.5 2.0 2.3 5.5 -0.8 9.0 3.3 4.5 3.1 1.6 2.9 2.7 2.0 Italy 11.1 4.9 8.5 1.2 6.6 4.9 3.0 3.8 4.8 15.3 4.7 8.8 1.0 3.6 1.4 2.3 4.7 United Kingdom 5.7 3.9 1.9 2.2 0.1 4.8 0.5 -2.3 -0.7 11.4 5.9 1.3 3.3 2.2 1.8 -0.9 1.6 Canada 5.8 5.8 5.8 8.5 8.9 7.0 6.9 4.1 3.5 4.9 6.1 5.4 3.8 3.6 1.7 2.4 3.5 Australia 2 3.6 0.7 4.1 1.8 -0.3 -0.4 3.1 -6.9 2.5 7.5 3.9 3.5 7.1 0.8 42.9 4.8 2.1 Austria .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 4.1 1.9 4.4 3.6 2.2 2.1 -0.6 Belgium 5.5 1.1 2.5 0.6 1.1 2.0 1.1 4.4 0.1 2.8 5.6 2.5 1.5 1.9 2.6 1.9 3.1 Czech Republic .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. -3.8 1.2 -7.2 -1.3 4.1 7.1 13.7 Denmark -1.7 2.0 0.8 2.7 2.8 1.7 2.0 6.3 5.1 1.1 3.6 0.7 1.1 21.3 0.9 -0.2 -0.3 Finland 6.0 6.9 10.6 16.4 5.8 2.8 7.1 -0.6 3.0 4.1 8.9 7.7 -2.3 1.0 0.2 6.0 -0.5 Greece 10.5 27.7 1.1 11.1 9.1 2.5 2.8 2.7 8.0 7.6 -2.6 0.5 1.3 0.5 3.5 7.3 3.1 Iceland .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 2.6 4.9 5.4 Ireland 7.2 9.8 1.3 1.7 0.7 0.2 3.4 0.8 -1.5 12.3 4.9 3.4 0.6 1.9 1.2 2.2 -0.4 Korea .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 16.1 4.6 15.7 15.3 19.7 4.9 13.3 Luxembourg 4.7 -2.5 1.6 0.3 2.3 5.5 3.6 6.2 7.1 2.6 13.9 4.7 8.7 1.7 6.6 1.5 2.7 Mexico 3 .. .. .. .. .. 12.3 56.2 7.3 21.1 -6.9 16.4 12.6 -1.0 11.6 385.2 21.0 28.4 Netherlands -0.6 2.2 0.6 0.4 3.1 4.3 4.0 2.6 3.1 12.7 1.2 2.1 0.3 -3.2 -1.7 2.5 1.3 New Zealand 5.0 14.6 -3.7 0.6 6.6 -7.9 -2.5 -0.1 4.9 5.1 3.5 -7.9 -3.1 -1.5 -1.6 0.5 0.0 Norway .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 2.0 2.8 3.6 5.2 2.4 4.5 1.5 1.2 2.5 Poland .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 42.9 22.5 6.6 4.8 4.9 5.4 9.9 Portugal 9.3 -3.7 13.0 -5.1 1.4 8.7 13.6 5.2 3.5 10.8 10.8 10.2 8.3 3.8 8.7 7.9 7.1 Spain 8.7 3.4 6.1 3.5 5.5 1.9 4.2 4.7 5.9 8.5 5.0 5.3 4.1 2.7 3.4 4.8 3.0 Sweden 7.6 1.1 3.9 -0.3 4.2 3.7 2.9 3.2 2.9 0.8 3.9 6.2 -0.1 1.9 -0.4 1.0 -0.1 Switzerland -4.3 7.2 -1.1 9.1 -0.3 3.2 0.6 3.0 -1.1 4.0 1.8 5.3 5.7 -0.2 3.5 -0.1 4.0 Turkey 4.8 14.1 16.5 -1.7 -1.8 4.3 10.9 18.0 18.9 43.9 4.1 14.9 9.3 -3.7 8.1 22.7 33.2 1. Includes old age cash benefits plus survivors benefits. 2. Prior to 1995, data on "superannuation pensions" and "superannuation lump sum" are not available. 3. Prior to 1995, social expenditure were underestimated, particularly with regard to old age cash benefits. Source: OECD Social Expenditure Database Table 18. Social expenditures on the elderly as a per cent of GDP in OECD countries 1 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 United States 5.9 6.1 6.4 6.4 6.1 6.0 6.0 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.9 6.1 6.1 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.0 6.0 Japan 4.0 4.3 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.2 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.3 5.6 5.9 6.3 6.4 6.5 Germany 10.5 10.6 10.8 10.7 10.6 10.5 10.4 10.5 10.4 10.2 9.8 9.7 9.9 10.2 10.4 10.7 10.8 10.9 France 9.5 9.8 10.1 10.3 10.5 10.7 10.7 10.7 10.8 10.3 10.9 11.2 11.5 12.0 12.0 12.1 12.3 12.3 Italy 9.0 10.0 10.4 11.2 11.0 11.4 11.7 11.7 11.6 11.8 13.4 13.8 14.9 15.2 15.4 15.2 15.4 15.8 United Kingdom 7.1 7.6 7.7 7.6 7.6 7.3 7.3 7.1 6.6 6.4 7.1 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.6 7.5 7.3 7.1 Canada 3.1 3.2 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.1 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.6 4.8 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 Australia 2 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.1 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.4 4.7 4.7 4.6 Austria 11.5 .. .. .. .. 12.4 .. .. .. .. 12.3 12.4 12.4 12.9 13.1 13.1 13.1 12.9 Belgium 9.3 9.8 9.9 10.1 9.9 9.8 9.9 9.7 9.7 9.4 9.4 9.7 9.8 10.1 10.0 10.0 10.1 10.0 Czech Republic .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 6.4 6.6 6.4 6.3 6.2 6.4 7.3 Denmark 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.8 6.0 6.3 6.3 6.5 6.5 6.6 7.6 7.4 7.2 7.0 Finland 5.5 5.8 6.0 6.4 7.2 7.4 7.4 7.6 7.3 7.1 7.4 8.6 9.6 9.5 9.2 8.9 9.1 8.5 Greece 6.0 6.6 8.4 8.5 9.1 9.7 9.8 10.1 9.9 10.3 11.1 10.5 10.5 10.8 10.6 10.8 11.3 11.3 Iceland .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.2 Ireland 5.3 5.4 5.8 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.4 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.0 4.8 4.5 4.2 3.8 Korea .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.1 Luxembourg 10.2 10.8 10.4 10.2 9.7 9.6 9.4 9.5 9.2 9.0 9.0 9.6 9.7 9.7 9.4 9.7 9.6 9.2 Mexico 3 .. .. .. .. .. 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 3.3 3.8 4.6 Netherlands 7.6 7.6 7.9 7.8 7.6 7.6 7.7 7.9 7.9 7.8 8.4 8.3 8.3 8.3 7.8 7.5 7.4 7.3 New Zealand 7.6 7.6 8.3 8.1 7.6 7.9 7.4 7.1 6.9 7.2 7.5 8.0 7.3 6.7 6.2 5.9 5.7 5.6 Norway 5.1 .. .. .. .. 5.2 .. .. 6.2 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.2 6.0 5.9 Poland .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 5.6 8.7 10.3 10.6 10.6 10.4 10.3 10.6 Portugal 4.1 4.5 4.2 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.7 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.3 5.7 6.1 6.7 6.8 7.3 7.7 8.0 Spain 6.3 6.8 7.0 7.2 7.4 7.6 7.5 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.8 8.0 8.4 8.8 8.8 8.9 9.1 9.0 Sweden 7.2 7.7 7.8 7.9 7.6 7.8 7.9 7.8 7.9 8.0 7.9 8.3 9.0 9.2 9.0 8.6 8.6 8.4 Switzerland 6.1 5.7 6.2 6.1 6.5 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.0 6.0 6.2 6.5 6.9 6.9 7.1 7.0 7.2 Turkey 1.7 1.7 1.9 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.4 3.2 3.3 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 4.3 5.3 1. Includes old age cash benefits plus survivors benefits. 2. Prior to 1995, data on "superannuation pensions" and "superannuation lump sum" are not available. 3. Prior to 1995, social expenditure were underestimated, particularly with regard to old age cash benefits. Sources: OECD Social Expenditure Database, OECD Economic Outlook no. 67 (June 2000). Table 19. Replacement ratios and their composition for persons aged 65-75 years in selected OECD countries 1 Capital and General Total Earnings self- government employment transfers Australia 75.0 10.9 24.7 39.5 Denmark 69.4 9.6 22.3 37.6 Finland 75.5 4.4 54.0 17.1 Germany 84.4 10.4 14.4 59.6 Greece 79.9 10.0 21.6 48.3 Italy 78.7 15.3 7.2 56.2 Mexico 75.6 40.3 25.6 9.7 Netherlands 80.8 7.2 35.0 38.6 Norway 72.3 11.7 24.5 36.1 Sweden 76.1 5.5 6.0 64.6 United States 79.9 21.7 30.2 28.0 1. For 1995, or closest available year. The values compare total disposable income of people aged 65-75 with total disposable income of people aged 55-64. Aggregates are calculated net of taxes. Source: OECD Questionnaire on income distribution and poverty indicators, 1999. Table 20. Replacement rates for older workers from non-employment benefit schemes in OECD countries, 1995 1 Yearly average from age 55 to the standard entitlement age for old-age pension Disability Unemployment Special ER schemes 2 schemes 3 schemes 4 United States .. .. .. Japan .. .. .. Germany 44.1 29.1 .. France 50.0 34.4 52.0 Italy 60.0 50.0 70.0 United Kingdom .. 8.2 .. Canada .. .. .. Australia 27.3 27.6 .. Austria 68.1 34.0 .. Belgium 58.3 40.0 52.9 Czech Republic 44.7 5.6 .. Denmark 38.8 71.5 20.0 Finland 60.0 30.0 .. Hungary 55.8 18.6 .. Iceland .. .. .. Ireland 32.2 24.0 .. Luxembourg 52.9 77.6 64.8 Netherlands 70.0 52.5 .. Norway 57.0 .. 14.7 New Zealand 31.5 30.0 .. Poland 46.9 16.2 .. Portugal 71.7 35.9 .. Spain 71.5 37.1 .. Sweden 69.6 .. .. Switzerland .. .. .. 1. For derivation of the summary replacement rates, see Blöndal and Scarpetta (1998). 2. ".." denotes that disability benefits are granted, in principle, on medical criteria only. 3. ".." denotes that unemployment pensions are not available, or that job-search requirements are not relaxed for older workers. 4. ".." denotes that there are no special early retirement systems. Source: Blöndal and Scarpetta (1998), The retirement decision in OECD countries , OECD Economics Department Working Paper no. 202. Table 21. Expected old-age replacement rates in OECD countries 1 Per cent 1961 1975 1995 United States 39.1 49.1 56.0 Japan 24.6 54.1 52.1 Germany 60.2 59.6 55.0 France 50.0 62.5 64.8 Italy 60.0 62.0 80.0 United Kingdom 33.4 33.8 49.8 Canada 31.3 45.1 51.6 Australia 19.1 32.8 40.9 Austria 79.5 79.5 79.5 Belgium 72.6 70.5 67.5 Czech Republic .. .. 53.2 Denmark 35.9 42.3 56.2 Finland 34.9 58.6 60.0 Greece .. .. 120.0 Hungary .. .. 54.6 Iceland .. .. 93.0 Ireland 38.6 28.9 39.7 Luxembourg .. .. 93.2 Netherlands 32.2 48.0 45.8 New Zealand 32.0 43.0 61.3 Norway 25.3 61.2 60.0 Poland .. .. 53.7 Portugal 85.0 77.0 82.6 Spain .. 50.0 100.0 Sweden 53.8 77.1 74.4 Switzerland 28.4 51.7 49.3 Average of above countries 2 44.0 54.6 59.3 1. The figures refer to theoretical replacement rates and are based on assumptions detailed in Blöndal and Scarpetta (1998). 2. The average for 1995 refers only to countries for which data are available for the whole period covered in the table. Source: Blöndal and Scarpetta (1998), The retirement decision in OECD countries , OECD Economics Department Working Paper no. 202. Table 22. Pension contribution rates in OECD countries Per cent of average earnings 1967 1995 United States 7.1 12.4 Japan 5.5 16.5 Germany 14.0 18.6 France 8.5 19.8 Italy 15.8 29.6 United Kingdom 6.5 13.9 Canada 5.9 5.4 Austria 16.5 22.8 Belgium 12.5 16.4 Denmark 1.0 1.0 Finland 6.5 17.9 Ireland 5.2 15.7 Netherlands 10.2 14.5 Norway 12.8 22.0 Portugal 13.5 13.9 Spain 16.0 28.3 Sweden 6.4 19.8 Switzerland 4.0 8.4 Source: Blöndal and Scarpetta (1998), The retirement decision in OECD countries , OECD Economics Department Working Paper no. 202. Table 23. Standard age of entitlement to public old-age pensions in OECD countries Males Females 1961 1975 1999 1961 1975 1999 United States 65 65 65 65 65 65 Japan 60 60 65 55 55 65 Germany 65 65 65 65 65 65 France 65 65 60 65 65 60 Italy 60 60 64 55 55 59 United Kingdom 65 65 65 60 60 60 Canada 70 65 65 70 65 65 Australia 65 65 65 60 60 61.5 Austria 65 65 65 60 60 60 Belgium 65 65 65 60 60 61 Denmark 67 67 67 67 67 67 Finland 65 65 65 65 65 65 Greece 65 62 62 60 57 57 Iceland 67 67 67 67 67 67 Ireland 70 68 66 70 68 66 Luxembourg 65 65 65 65 60 65 Netherlands 65 65 65 65 65 65 New Zealand 65 65 64 65 65 64 Norway 70 67 67 70 67 67 Portugal 65 65 65 65 62 65 Spain 65 65 65 65 65 65 Sweden 67 67 65 67 67 65 Switzerland 65 65 65 63 62 62 Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Social Security Programs Throughout The World , various issues.