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The Equilibrium Real Funds Rate: Past, Present and Future

James D. Hamilton, Ethan S. Harris, Jan Hatzius, Kenneth D. West

NBER Working Paper No. 21476
Issued in August 2015

---- Acknowledgments ----

This paper was written for the U.S. Monetary Policy Forum, New York City, February 27, 2015. We thank Jari Stehn and David Mericle for extensive help with the modeling work in Section 6. We also thank Chris Mischaikow, Alex Verbny, Alex Lin and Lisa Berlin for assistance with data and charts and for helpful comments and discussions. We also benefited from comments on an earlier draft of this paper by Mike Feroli, Peter Hooper, Anil Kashyap, Rick Mishkin, Kim Schoenholtz, and Amir Sufi. West thanks the National Science Foundation for financial support. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.

---- Disclosure of Financial Relationships for James D. Hamilton ----

OUTSIDE COMPENSATED ACTIVITIES

Jan 2007 – Dec 2014

Excludes honoraria of $1,000 or less and royalty income from books

Teaching:

Harvard University, Study Center Gerzensee, International Monetary Fund, University of Minho

Compensation for distinguished lectures and keynote speeches:

Princeton University, Stanford University, Yonsei University, St. Cloud State University, Flat Panel Display Association, James A. Baker Institute for Public Policy, American Association of Agricultural Economists, Indiana University, State University of New York at Albany, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Norwegian Business School

Consulting:

Goldman Sachs, Gerson Lehman Group, Meketa Investment Group, Federal Reserve Board, Bank of International Settlements, Research Affiliates, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, GJK Capital Advisors

Compensation for commissioned works:

Cato Institute: “Off-Balance-Sheet Federal Liabilities” and “Comment on The French Gold Sink and the Great Deflation of 1929-32”

US Monetary Policy Forum: “The Equilibrium Real Funds Rate: Past, Present and Future” and “Crunch Time: Fiscal Crises and the Role of Monetary Policy”

International Journal of Central Banking: “Commentary: Import Prices and Inflation”

Fuel Freedom Foundation: “Economic Costs of America’s Dependence on Oil”

Federal Reserve Bank of Boston: “The Effectiveness of Alternative Monetary Policy Tools in a Zero Lower Bound Environment”

Brookings Institution: “Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007-2008”

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