Commodity-Price Comovement and Global Economic Activity
NBER Working Paper No. 20003
Guided by a macroeconomic model in which commodity prices are endogenously determined, we apply a new factor-based identification strategy to decompose the historical sources of changes in commodity prices and global economic activity. The model yields a factor structure for commodity prices and identification conditions that provide the factors with an economic interpretation: one factor captures the combined contribution of shocks that affect commodity markets only through general-equilibrium forces. Applied to a cross-section of commodity prices since 1968, the theoretical restrictions are consistent with the data and yield structural interpretations of the common factors in commodity prices. Commodity-related shocks have contributed modestly to global economic fluctuations.
Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w20003
Published: Ron Alquist & Saroj Bhattarai & Olivier Coibion, 2019. "Commodity-Price Comovement and Global Economic Activity," Journal of Monetary Economics, .
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