02050cam a22003257 4500001000700000003000500007005001700012006001900029007001500048008004100063100002000104245010600124260006600230300005700296490004200353500001700395520077700412530006001189538007201249538003601321588002501357690005601382690005601438700001801494700001801512710004201530830007701572856003801649856003701687w15220NBER20200812175553.0m o d cr cnu||||||||200812s2009 mau fo 000 0 eng d1 aGelman, Andrew.10aWhat is the probability your vote will make a difference? /cAndrew Gelman, Nate Silver, Aaron Edlin. aCambridge, Mass.bNational Bureau of Economic Researchc2009. a1 online resource:billustrations (black and white);1 aNBER working paper seriesvno. w15220 aAugust 2009.3 aOne of the motivations for voting is that one vote can make a difference. In a presidential election, the probability that your vote is decisive is equal to the probability that your state is necessary for an electoral college win, times the probability the vote in your state is tied in that event. We computed these probabilities a week before the 2008 presidential election, using state-by-state election forecasts based on the latest polls. The states where a single vote was most likely to matter are New Mexico, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Colorado, where your vote had an approximate 1 in 10 million chance of determining the national election outcome. On average, a voter in America had a 1 in 60 million chance of being decisive in the presidential election. aHardcopy version available to institutional subscribers aSystem requirements: Adobe [Acrobat] Reader required for PDF files. aMode of access: World Wide Web.0 aPrint version record 7aH0 - General2Journal of Economic Literature class. 7aK0 - General2Journal of Economic Literature class.1 aSilver, Nate.1 aEdlin, Aaron.2 aNational Bureau of Economic Research. 0aWorking Paper Series (National Bureau of Economic Research)vno. w15220.40uhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w1522040uhttp://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w15220