Emerging and Frontier Markets: Capital Flows, Resiliency, Risks, and Growth
During the last two decades, emerging and frontier markets have received substantial capital inflows and accumulated debts both in their own currency and in foreign currency. The canonical recipe for an emerging market crisis involves a large dose of public as well as private indebtedness, often with significant misallocation of capital into unproductive projects. These vulnerabilities, combined with weak banks, budget deficits, corruption, political constraints, and domestic and external misalignments, preceded many of the episodes of financial crises. The COVID-19 crisis exacerbated many of these vulnerabilities with a substantial increase in external and public leverage. Many emerging and frontier economies are now also particularly vulnerable to a two-speed recovery that may alter capital flows.
To promote academic research on growth dynamics, capital flows, resiliency, and associated risks in emerging and frontier markets, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and the Banco de la República Colombia will convene a conference in Cartagena, Colombia on May 9-10, 2022. If public health conditions do not permit an in-person meeting, the conference will be held virtually. The program committee consists of Mark Aguiar (Princeton and NBER), Cristina Arellano (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis), Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas (University of California, Berkeley and NBER), and Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan (University of Maryland and NBER).
The conference will include eight research papers and a panel discussion of policy issues facing emerging and frontier markets. The panelists will include Leonardo Villar, Governor of the Banco de la República Colombia, and José Darío Uribe, President of the Fondo Latinoamericano de Reservas. In addition, Gita Gopinath, the Chief Economist of the International Monetary Fund and a Professor of Economics at Harvard University, and Maurice Obstfeld, a Professor of Economics at the University of California, Berkeley, will deliver keynote speeches.
Papers on topics including, but not limited to, the following are welcome:
• The relation between foreign currency debt, investment, and productivity
• Capital flows and the failure of international arbitrage
• The role of capital flows and global financial cycle in boom-bust cycles
• Sovereign, bank, and corporate debt crises
• Policy responses to risks originating in domestic or global financial markets
• Resiliency and increased vulnerabilities in the face of the COVID-19 crisis
• Growth-volatility-capital flow nexus
• The interaction of monetary policy and capital flows
• The implications of the growing importance of emerging markets in the world economy
To submit a paper for potential presentation at the conference, please upload a PDF file no later than midnight (EST) on January 15, 2022 to:
Submissions from scholars who are early in their careers, researchers who are not NBER affiliates, and researchers from under-represented groups in the economics profession are encouraged. Authors chosen to present papers will be notified by mid-February, 2022. The NBER will pay the economy-class travel and hotel expenses for up to two authors per paper to attend the conference. Questions about this meeting may be addressed to email@example.com.