-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- name: log: C:\Users\320491\Desktop\Final NBER\replicate_figures.log log type: text opened on: 26 May 2019, 01:23:04 . local path_folder "C:\Users\320491\Desktop\Final NBER" . local fig_folder "\Figures" . local dataset "\mergedData.dta" . . *Load dataset and drop repeat MSAs . clear all . cd "`path_folder'" C:\Users\320491\Desktop\Final NBER . use "`path_folder'`dataset'" . drop if area_id==6 | area_id==7 | area_id==27 (210 observations deleted) . /* Washington-Baltimore | LA-Riverside | Riverside */ . . *Generate seasonal dummies . tabulate area_id if halfyear==2, gen(seas) MSA ID | Freq. Percent Cum. ------------+----------------------------------- 1 | 35 3.57 3.57 2 | 35 3.57 7.14 3 | 35 3.57 10.71 4 | 35 3.57 14.29 5 | 35 3.57 17.86 8 | 35 3.57 21.43 9 | 35 3.57 25.00 10 | 35 3.57 28.57 11 | 35 3.57 32.14 12 | 35 3.57 35.71 13 | 35 3.57 39.29 14 | 35 3.57 42.86 15 | 35 3.57 46.43 16 | 35 3.57 50.00 17 | 35 3.57 53.57 18 | 35 3.57 57.14 19 | 35 3.57 60.71 20 | 35 3.57 64.29 21 | 35 3.57 67.86 22 | 35 3.57 71.43 23 | 35 3.57 75.00 24 | 35 3.57 78.57 25 | 35 3.57 82.14 26 | 35 3.57 85.71 28 | 35 3.57 89.29 29 | 35 3.57 92.86 30 | 35 3.57 96.43 31 | 35 3.57 100.00 ------------+----------------------------------- Total | 980 100.00 . foreach var of varlist seas* { 2. replace `var'=0 if `var'==. 3. } (980 real changes made) (980 real changes made) (980 real changes made) (980 real changes made) (980 real changes made) (980 real changes made) (980 real changes made) (980 real changes made) (980 real changes made) (980 real changes made) (980 real changes made) (980 real changes made) (980 real changes made) (980 real changes made) (980 real changes made) (980 real changes made) (980 real changes made) (980 real changes made) (980 real changes made) (980 real changes made) (980 real changes made) (980 real changes made) (980 real changes made) (980 real changes made) (980 real changes made) (980 real changes made) (980 real changes made) (980 real changes made) . . g bartik_mp5y=(bartik_mp+l.bartik_mp+l2.bartik_mp+l3.bartik_mp /// > +l4.bartik_mp+l5.bartik_mp+l6.bartik_mp+l7.bartik_mp /// > +l8.bartik_mp+l9.bartik_mp)/10 (280 missing values generated) . . g bartik_mp3y=(bartik_mp+l.bartik_mp+l2.bartik_mp+l3.bartik_mp /// > +l4.bartik_mp+l5.bartik_mp)/6 (168 missing values generated) . . g bartik_3y=(bartik+l.bartik+l2.bartik+l3.bartik /// > +l4.bartik+l5.bartik)/6 (168 missing values generated) . . g bartik_defmp3y=(bartik_defmp+l.bartik_defmp+l2.bartik_defmp+ /// > l3.bartik_defmp+l4.bartik_defmp+l5.bartik_defmp)/6 (168 missing values generated) . end of do-file . ivregress 2sls pic (ur = bartik_defmp) l.pic epi seas1-seas28 i.area_id if year<2018, vce(cl area_id) Instrumental variables (2SLS) regression Number of obs = 1525 Wald chi2(58) = 6.53 Prob > chi2 = 1.0000 R-squared = . Root MSE = 7.1882 (Std. Err. adjusted for 28 clusters in area_id) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Robust pic | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- ur | 4.175841 6.139314 0.68 0.496 -7.856994 16.20868 | pic | L1. | 1.71669 1.894741 0.91 0.365 -1.996935 5.430315 | epi | -1.157671 2.564088 -0.45 0.652 -6.183191 3.867849 seas1 | 2.297059 3.537407 0.65 0.516 -4.636131 9.230249 seas2 | 1.041243 2.720766 0.38 0.702 -4.291361 6.373847 seas3 | .5484223 2.130065 0.26 0.797 -3.626429 4.723274 seas4 | 2.097843 2.67811 0.78 0.433 -3.151157 7.346843 seas5 | -.28488 .7663247 -0.37 0.710 -1.786849 1.217089 seas6 | 2.378242 3.154696 0.75 0.451 -3.804849 8.561333 seas7 | 1.186859 1.690039 0.70 0.483 -2.125556 4.499274 seas8 | .0826468 .8519797 0.10 0.923 -1.587203 1.752496 seas9 | 2.183258 2.226747 0.98 0.327 -2.181086 6.547602 seas10 | 1.536628 2.791507 0.55 0.582 -3.934627 7.007882 seas11 | .1992445 .8726663 0.23 0.819 -1.51115 1.909639 seas12 | .8121897 2.086493 0.39 0.697 -3.277261 4.90164 seas13 | -.5973669 .7730032 -0.77 0.440 -2.112425 .9176915 seas14 | -.1943137 .3959987 -0.49 0.624 -.9704569 .5818295 seas15 | -4.588423 3.733075 -1.23 0.219 -11.90512 2.728269 seas16 | -3.439728 2.155298 -1.60 0.111 -7.664036 .7845792 seas17 | -2.752076 1.850652 -1.49 0.137 -6.379287 .8751345 seas18 | .2318744 .8590465 0.27 0.787 -1.451826 1.915575 seas19 | -.5796879 .0977433 -5.93 0.000 -.7712613 -.3881144 seas20 | -3.103133 2.053061 -1.51 0.131 -7.127059 .920792 seas21 | -4.80194 3.733489 -1.29 0.198 -12.11944 2.515563 seas22 | -.0438549 1.124534 -0.04 0.969 -2.247901 2.160191 seas23 | -2.480951 1.910991 -1.30 0.194 -6.226424 1.264522 seas24 | -1.545171 .9851014 -1.57 0.117 -3.475935 .385592 seas25 | .3678808 .6825345 0.54 0.590 -.9698623 1.705624 seas26 | -2.377234 1.739729 -1.37 0.172 -5.78704 1.032571 seas27 | -.623755 .2165657 -2.88 0.004 -1.048216 -.1992941 seas28 | 2.195329 3.995045 0.55 0.583 -5.634816 10.02547 | area_id | 2 | 1.661353 2.382369 0.70 0.486 -3.008004 6.33071 3 | 3.280127 4.518188 0.73 0.468 -5.575359 12.13561 4 | 1.530187 2.815932 0.54 0.587 -3.988937 7.049312 5 | 3.744311 5.461199 0.69 0.493 -6.959443 14.44807 8 | -1.59604 2.295499 -0.70 0.487 -6.095136 2.903055 9 | 3.425874 5.155561 0.66 0.506 -6.678839 13.53059 10 | -1.484783 2.523901 -0.59 0.556 -6.431537 3.461971 11 | -.0834476 .5573826 -0.15 0.881 -1.175898 1.009002 12 | -2.59253 3.624715 -0.72 0.474 -9.696842 4.511781 13 | -4.90088 7.076506 -0.69 0.489 -18.77058 8.968816 14 | 7.658036 11.11323 0.69 0.491 -14.12349 29.43956 15 | 1.932105 2.543318 0.76 0.447 -3.052706 6.916916 16 | 7.986058 11.65972 0.68 0.493 -14.86658 30.8387 17 | 1.237121 .3316749 3.73 0.000 .5870501 1.887192 18 | 4.280898 5.38884 0.79 0.427 -6.281034 14.84283 19 | 2.388953 2.708308 0.88 0.378 -2.919234 7.697139 20 | 2.388215 3.551329 0.67 0.501 -4.572261 9.348692 21 | 3.977984 5.824888 0.68 0.495 -7.438586 15.39455 22 | 3.028781 3.453876 0.88 0.381 -3.740692 9.798254 23 | 4.081018 5.036911 0.81 0.418 -5.791147 13.95318 24 | 5.071117 6.595306 0.77 0.442 -7.855445 17.99768 25 | -2.770082 4.715112 -0.59 0.557 -12.01153 6.471369 26 | 3.359704 4.175237 0.80 0.421 -4.823609 11.54302 28 | 2.257472 3.140188 0.72 0.472 -3.897183 8.412127 29 | 1.652133 1.498538 1.10 0.270 -1.284947 4.589214 30 | 8.9006 12.84325 0.69 0.488 -16.2717 34.0729 31 | -1.497073 2.351464 -0.64 0.524 -6.105858 3.111712 | _cons | -23.73506 34.64006 -0.69 0.493 -91.62834 44.15821 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Instrumented: ur Instruments: L.pic epi seas1 seas2 seas3 seas4 seas5 seas6 seas7 seas8 seas9 seas10 seas11 seas12 seas13 seas14 seas15 seas16 seas17 seas18 seas19 seas20 seas21 seas22 seas23 seas24 seas25 seas26 seas27 seas28 2.area_id 3.area_id 4.area_id 5.area_id 8.area_id 9.area_id 10.area_id 11.area_id 12.area_id 13.area_id 14.area_id 15.area_id 16.area_id 17.area_id 18.area_id 19.area_id 20.area_id 21.area_id 22.area_id 23.area_id 24.area_id 25.area_id 26.area_id 28.area_id 29.area_id 30.area_id 31.area_id bartik_defmp . ivregress 2sls pic (ur = l(0/6).bartik_defmp) l.pic epi seas1-seas28 i.area_id if year<2018, vce(cl area_id) Instrumental variables (2SLS) regression Number of obs = 1525 Wald chi2(58) = 219.87 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 R-squared = 0.3500 Root MSE = 1.1682 (Std. Err. adjusted for 28 clusters in area_id) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Robust pic | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- ur | -.1676503 .0392326 -4.27 0.000 -.2445448 -.0907558 | pic | L1. | .3697635 .0364009 10.16 0.000 .2984189 .441108 | epi | .5910937 .0601039 9.83 0.000 .4732922 .7088952 seas1 | -.20621 .0225392 -9.15 0.000 -.250386 -.1620341 seas2 | -.8725117 .0229897 -37.95 0.000 -.9175707 -.8274526 seas3 | -.9447485 .0225233 -41.95 0.000 -.9888934 -.9006037 seas4 | .199839 .0200799 9.95 0.000 .1604832 .2391948 seas5 | -.8120137 .0163103 -49.79 0.000 -.8439814 -.7800461 seas6 | .1426269 .0215588 6.62 0.000 .1003725 .1848813 seas7 | -.0104319 .0112073 -0.93 0.352 -.0323977 .0115339 seas8 | -.5149159 .0090192 -57.09 0.000 -.5325933 -.4972386 seas9 | .6007379 .0237643 25.28 0.000 .5541607 .647315 seas10 | -.43523 .0182141 -23.90 0.000 -.470929 -.399531 seas11 | -.4130179 .0085778 -48.15 0.000 -.4298302 -.3962057 seas12 | -.6568645 .0163762 -40.11 0.000 -.6889612 -.6247678 seas13 | -1.120349 .0222375 -50.38 0.000 -1.163933 -1.076764 seas14 | -.4686178 .0068126 -68.79 0.000 -.4819704 -.4552653 seas15 | -1.932703 .0529341 -36.51 0.000 -2.036452 -1.828954 seas16 | -1.907873 .0488653 -39.04 0.000 -2.003647 -1.812098 seas17 | -1.436868 .0401351 -35.80 0.000 -1.515531 -1.358204 seas18 | -.3716523 .0076281 -48.72 0.000 -.386603 -.3567015 seas19 | -.5454424 .0129758 -42.04 0.000 -.5708745 -.5200103 seas20 | -1.642667 .041351 -39.72 0.000 -1.723713 -1.56162 seas21 | -2.146721 .0644512 -33.31 0.000 -2.273043 -2.020399 seas22 | -.8227132 .0203108 -40.51 0.000 -.8625217 -.7829046 seas23 | -1.122752 .0296041 -37.93 0.000 -1.180775 -1.064729 seas24 | -.8463421 .0216507 -39.09 0.000 -.8887767 -.8039075 seas25 | -.1149712 .004284 -26.84 0.000 -.1233678 -.1065747 seas26 | -1.140837 .0279992 -40.75 0.000 -1.195714 -1.085959 seas27 | -.4722364 .0071722 -65.84 0.000 -.4862936 -.4581792 seas28 | -.6257433 .0264212 -23.68 0.000 -.6775278 -.5739588 | area_id | 2 | -.0285824 .0313205 -0.91 0.361 -.0899694 .0328045 3 | .0778616 .0376957 2.07 0.039 .0039793 .1517439 4 | -.4618453 .0207897 -22.22 0.000 -.5025924 -.4210983 5 | -.1272182 .0457015 -2.78 0.005 -.2167916 -.0376449 8 | .0351562 .0186749 1.88 0.060 -.001446 .0717583 9 | -.2222325 .0330769 -6.72 0.000 -.287062 -.1574029 10 | .3003334 .016066 18.69 0.000 .2688445 .3318222 11 | -.4754538 .0048141 -98.76 0.000 -.4848893 -.4660183 12 | -.0341375 .0254283 -1.34 0.179 -.083976 .015701 13 | .0991653 .0457795 2.17 0.030 .0094392 .1888914 14 | -.207295 .0739802 -2.80 0.005 -.3522935 -.0622964 15 | .1278668 .0322907 3.96 0.000 .0645782 .1911554 16 | -.2622081 .0766696 -3.42 0.001 -.4124778 -.1119384 17 | 1.022852 .0183233 55.82 0.000 .9869394 1.058765 18 | .4569539 .0580189 7.88 0.000 .343239 .5706688 19 | .4679796 .0310727 15.06 0.000 .4070783 .528881 20 | -.1243654 .0268076 -4.64 0.000 -.1769075 -.0718234 21 | -.148006 .045085 -3.28 0.001 -.2363709 -.0596411 22 | .5800613 .0361947 16.03 0.000 .509121 .6510016 23 | .50386 .0723947 6.96 0.000 .3619691 .645751 24 | .4078666 .0430333 9.48 0.000 .3235229 .4922104 25 | .5565281 .033455 16.64 0.000 .4909576 .6220986 26 | .4064451 .0282883 14.37 0.000 .351001 .4618892 28 | .0420594 .0216697 1.94 0.052 -.0004124 .0845311 29 | .5924874 .0124467 47.60 0.000 .5680923 .6168825 30 | -.1839865 .0830535 -2.22 0.027 -.3467684 -.0212047 31 | .1617501 .0174487 9.27 0.000 .1275513 .1959489 | _cons | .8943769 .2625753 3.41 0.001 .3797388 1.409015 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Instrumented: ur Instruments: L.pic epi seas1 seas2 seas3 seas4 seas5 seas6 seas7 seas8 seas9 seas10 seas11 seas12 seas13 seas14 seas15 seas16 seas17 seas18 seas19 seas20 seas21 seas22 seas23 seas24 seas25 seas26 seas27 seas28 2.area_id 3.area_id 4.area_id 5.area_id 8.area_id 9.area_id 10.area_id 11.area_id 12.area_id 13.area_id 14.area_id 15.area_id 16.area_id 17.area_id 18.area_id 19.area_id 20.area_id 21.area_id 22.area_id 23.area_id 24.area_id 25.area_id 26.area_id 28.area_id 29.area_id 30.area_id 31.area_id bartik_defmp L.bartik_defmp L2.bartik_defmp L3.bartik_defmp L4.bartik_defmp L5.bartik_defmp L6.bartik_defmp . ivregress 2sls pic ur l.pic epi seas1-seas28 i.area_id if year<2018, vce(cl area_id) Instrumental variables (2SLS) regression Number of obs = 1525 Wald chi2(58) = 232.84 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 R-squared = 0.3500 Root MSE = 1.1682 (Std. Err. adjusted for 28 clusters in area_id) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Robust pic | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- ur | -.1623695 .0185609 -8.75 0.000 -.1987483 -.1259908 | pic | L1. | .3714011 .0347675 10.68 0.000 .303258 .4395441 | epi | .5889676 .0566265 10.40 0.000 .4779818 .6999534 seas1 | -.2031666 .0107004 -18.99 0.000 -.2241389 -.1821942 seas2 | -.870185 .0171259 -50.81 0.000 -.9037511 -.8366188 seas3 | -.9429332 .0190725 -49.44 0.000 -.9803146 -.9055518 seas4 | .2021465 .0130303 15.51 0.000 .1766076 .2276855 seas5 | -.8113729 .0157359 -51.56 0.000 -.8422146 -.7805311 seas6 | .1453449 .0123457 11.77 0.000 .1211479 .169542 seas7 | -.0089762 .0060265 -1.49 0.136 -.020788 .0028355 seas8 | -.5141894 .0077276 -66.54 0.000 -.5293352 -.4990437 seas9 | .6026618 .0201823 29.86 0.000 .5631054 .6422183 seas10 | -.4328327 .0090036 -48.07 0.000 -.4504793 -.415186 seas11 | -.4122736 .0069676 -59.17 0.000 -.4259299 -.3986172 seas12 | -.6550785 .01134 -57.77 0.000 -.6773044 -.6328525 seas13 | -1.119713 .0218313 -51.29 0.000 -1.162501 -1.076924 seas14 | -.4682843 .0063915 -73.27 0.000 -.4808115 -.4557572 seas15 | -1.935932 .0485857 -39.85 0.000 -2.031158 -1.840706 seas16 | -1.909735 .047356 -40.33 0.000 -2.002551 -1.816919 seas17 | -1.438467 .0387523 -37.12 0.000 -1.51442 -1.362514 seas18 | -.3709185 .0057684 -64.30 0.000 -.3822243 -.3596127 seas19 | -.545484 .0129818 -42.02 0.000 -.5709279 -.5200401 seas20 | -1.644442 .0397274 -41.39 0.000 -1.722307 -1.566578 seas21 | -2.149949 .0608716 -35.32 0.000 -2.269255 -2.030643 seas22 | -.8217663 .0194007 -42.36 0.000 -.859791 -.7837415 seas23 | -1.124403 .0274871 -40.91 0.000 -1.178277 -1.070529 seas24 | -.8471917 .0208781 -40.58 0.000 -.8881121 -.8062714 seas25 | -.1143842 .0021469 -53.28 0.000 -.118592 -.1101763 seas26 | -1.14234 .0261442 -43.69 0.000 -1.193582 -1.091098 seas27 | -.4724206 .0070444 -67.06 0.000 -.4862275 -.4586138 seas28 | -.6223135 .0141804 -43.89 0.000 -.6501066 -.5945204 | area_id | 2 | -.0265278 .0279484 -0.95 0.343 -.0813056 .0282499 3 | .0817549 .0271362 3.01 0.003 .0285689 .1349408 4 | -.4594235 .0126555 -36.30 0.000 -.4842278 -.4346191 5 | -.1225113 .0331086 -3.70 0.000 -.1874029 -.0576197 8 | .033173 .0139321 2.38 0.017 .0058666 .0604794 9 | -.2177972 .0158474 -13.74 0.000 -.2488576 -.1867368 10 | .2981631 .0075092 39.71 0.000 .2834452 .3128809 11 | -.4749772 .0036747 -129.26 0.000 -.4821795 -.467775 12 | -.0372479 .0161048 -2.31 0.021 -.0688128 -.0056831 13 | .0930864 .023798 3.91 0.000 .0464432 .1397295 14 | -.1977325 .0383671 -5.15 0.000 -.2729306 -.1225343 15 | .1300604 .0285698 4.55 0.000 .0740646 .1860562 16 | -.25218 .0381749 -6.61 0.000 -.3270014 -.1773586 17 | 1.023113 .0181548 56.35 0.000 .9875302 1.058696 18 | .461603 .0488086 9.46 0.000 .3659399 .5572661 19 | .4703151 .0266543 17.64 0.000 .4180736 .5225566 20 | -.1213107 .0168573 -7.20 0.000 -.1543504 -.088271 21 | -.1429897 .0299301 -4.78 0.000 -.2016517 -.0843277 22 | .5830384 .0299128 19.49 0.000 .5244105 .6416664 23 | .5082091 .066173 7.68 0.000 .3785125 .6379057 24 | .4135361 .0208363 19.85 0.000 .3726978 .4543745 25 | .5524837 .0212101 26.05 0.000 .5109127 .5940546 26 | .4100356 .0148871 27.54 0.000 .3808575 .4392138 28 | .0447528 .0118365 3.78 0.000 .0215537 .0679519 29 | .5937757 .0086197 68.89 0.000 .5768814 .61067 30 | -.1729417 .0398968 -4.33 0.000 -.2511379 -.0947454 31 | .1597333 .0120556 13.25 0.000 .1361047 .1833619 | _cons | .864433 .1987963 4.35 0.000 .4747993 1.254067 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (no endogenous regressors) . ivregress 2sls pic (ur = l(0/6).bartik_defmp) l.pic epi seas1-seas28 i.year i.area_id if year<2018, vce(cl area_id) note: 1984.year identifies no observations in the sample note: 1985.year identifies no observations in the sample note: 1986.year identifies no observations in the sample note: 1987.year identifies no observations in the sample note: 1988.year identifies no observations in the sample note: 1989.year identifies no observations in the sample note: 2017.year omitted because of collinearity note: 2018.year identifies no observations in the sample Instrumental variables (2SLS) regression Number of obs = 1525 Wald chi2(85) =18954.76 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 R-squared = 0.4779 Root MSE = 1.047 (Std. Err. adjusted for 28 clusters in area_id) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Robust pic | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- ur | -.5545957 .359717 -1.54 0.123 -1.259628 .1504367 | pic | L1. | .0664921 .0846239 0.79 0.432 -.0993677 .232352 | epi | .2116986 .1468466 1.44 0.149 -.0761154 .4995126 seas1 | -.4375856 .2088853 -2.09 0.036 -.8469933 -.028178 seas2 | -.9412126 .1719125 -5.47 0.000 -1.278155 -.6042704 seas3 | -.961657 .140124 -6.86 0.000 -1.236295 -.687019 seas4 | -.0058277 .145227 -0.04 0.968 -.2904673 .278812 seas5 | -.7603145 .0578542 -13.14 0.000 -.8737065 -.6469224 seas6 | -.1009113 .1820572 -0.55 0.579 -.4577369 .2559143 seas7 | -.1366693 .0987453 -1.38 0.166 -.3302065 .0568679 seas8 | -.5310387 .0597088 -8.89 0.000 -.6480657 -.4140116 seas9 | .3555508 .1166208 3.05 0.002 .1269782 .5841234 seas10 | -.5757773 .1640703 -3.51 0.000 -.8973492 -.2542054 seas11 | -.4193084 .054216 -7.73 0.000 -.5255699 -.313047 seas12 | -.719082 .128802 -5.58 0.000 -.9715292 -.4666347 seas13 | -1.034328 .0650636 -15.90 0.000 -1.16185 -.9068054 seas14 | -.4436986 .0249457 -17.79 0.000 -.4925912 -.3948059 seas15 | -1.432021 .1851608 -7.73 0.000 -1.79493 -1.069113 seas16 | -1.504585 .0968329 -15.54 0.000 -1.694374 -1.314796 seas17 | -1.080566 .111021 -9.73 0.000 -1.298163 -.8629687 seas18 | -.3814119 .0506192 -7.53 0.000 -.4806236 -.2822002 seas19 | -.4566766 .0137104 -33.31 0.000 -.4835486 -.4298047 seas20 | -1.287697 .0953491 -13.51 0.000 -1.474578 -1.100816 seas21 | -1.587452 .1729192 -9.18 0.000 -1.926367 -1.248536 seas22 | -.7923472 .0892244 -8.88 0.000 -.9672238 -.6174707 seas23 | -.8688595 .0872817 -9.95 0.000 -1.039929 -.6977905 seas24 | -.6825537 .0397126 -17.19 0.000 -.760389 -.6047185 seas25 | -.1617736 .0441541 -3.66 0.000 -.2483139 -.0752332 seas26 | -.9042353 .0784156 -11.53 0.000 -1.057927 -.7505436 seas27 | -.4302831 .0073122 -58.84 0.000 -.4446148 -.4159515 seas28 | -.8297699 .2471185 -3.36 0.001 -1.314113 -.3454265 | year | 1984 | 0 (empty) 1985 | 0 (empty) 1986 | 0 (empty) 1987 | 0 (empty) 1988 | 0 (empty) 1989 | 0 (empty) 1990 | 3.267831 .7449481 4.39 0.000 1.80776 4.727903 1991 | 3.322784 1.054799 3.15 0.002 1.255416 5.390153 1992 | 2.803667 1.15724 2.42 0.015 .5355185 5.071817 1993 | 2.298429 .9211068 2.50 0.013 .4930925 4.103765 1994 | 1.679349 .6439552 2.61 0.009 .4172202 2.941478 1995 | 1.297057 .4451368 2.91 0.004 .424605 2.169509 1996 | .9329547 .3744366 2.49 0.013 .1990724 1.666837 1997 | .430503 .2612683 1.65 0.099 -.0815734 .9425794 1998 | .4637649 .1965639 2.36 0.018 .0785066 .8490231 1999 | .1061887 .2170881 0.49 0.625 -.3192962 .5316735 2000 | .5666886 .2418478 2.34 0.019 .0926755 1.040702 2001 | 1.117702 .2362818 4.73 0.000 .6545978 1.580806 2002 | 1.29623 .6356633 2.04 0.041 .050353 2.542107 2003 | .4188268 .6281319 0.67 0.505 -.8122891 1.649943 2004 | .5167103 .4360823 1.18 0.236 -.3379953 1.371416 2005 | .5645729 .3892233 1.45 0.147 -.1982908 1.327437 2006 | 1.007862 .3014426 3.34 0.001 .4170449 1.598678 2007 | .3843839 .2916749 1.32 0.188 -.1872884 .9560561 2008 | .8753118 .6924437 1.26 0.206 -.481853 2.232477 2009 | 2.398 1.672099 1.43 0.152 -.8792531 5.675254 2010 | 1.861247 1.685383 1.10 0.269 -1.442043 5.164537 2011 | 2.365785 1.536683 1.54 0.124 -.6460579 5.377627 2012 | 2.052746 1.239549 1.66 0.098 -.3767267 4.482218 2013 | 1.502975 .9993089 1.50 0.133 -.455635 3.461584 2014 | .7717981 .5978118 1.29 0.197 -.3998915 1.943488 2015 | .637395 .2842518 2.24 0.025 .0802717 1.194518 2016 | .7345391 .1937406 3.79 0.000 .3548146 1.114264 2017 | 0 (omitted) 2018 | 0 (empty) | area_id | 2 | -.272746 .103107 -2.65 0.008 -.4748319 -.07066 3 | -.2735619 .2309796 -1.18 0.236 -.7262736 .1791499 4 | -.6272607 .1443222 -4.35 0.000 -.9101271 -.3443944 5 | -.564895 .2817682 -2.00 0.045 -1.117151 -.0126395 8 | .2776672 .1384622 2.01 0.045 .0062862 .5490481 9 | -.5536559 .3009726 -1.84 0.066 -1.143551 .0362396 10 | .4540636 .148795 3.05 0.002 .1624307 .7456965 11 | -.4905403 .036194 -13.55 0.000 -.5614792 -.4196014 12 | .1617295 .2416346 0.67 0.503 -.3118657 .6353247 13 | .5022141 .4454785 1.13 0.260 -.3709077 1.375336 14 | -.9253971 .6250741 -1.48 0.139 -2.15052 .2997256 15 | -.1287977 .1119685 -1.15 0.250 -.3482519 .0906566 16 | -.9687953 .6574913 -1.47 0.141 -2.257455 .3198639 17 | .9696451 .0290625 33.36 0.000 .9126836 1.026607 18 | -.0577462 .2580157 -0.22 0.823 -.5634476 .4479553 19 | .4781575 .1231936 3.88 0.000 .2367025 .7196125 20 | -.33721 .1799926 -1.87 0.061 -.689989 .015569 21 | -.5644673 .3029539 -1.86 0.062 -1.158246 .0293114 22 | .2826317 .1600982 1.77 0.078 -.031155 .5964184 23 | .1026833 .3387376 0.30 0.762 -.5612302 .7665969 24 | .0355187 .3739496 0.09 0.924 -.6974091 .7684465 25 | .7880213 .3079588 2.56 0.011 .1844331 1.39161 26 | .161984 .2280376 0.71 0.477 -.2849615 .6089295 28 | -.0790555 .1774587 -0.45 0.656 -.4268682 .2687572 29 | .5094212 .0704958 7.23 0.000 .3712519 .6475904 30 | -.9604184 .7382135 -1.30 0.193 -2.40729 .4864535 31 | .2879819 .1620011 1.78 0.075 -.0295343 .6054982 | _cons | 3.845705 1.981512 1.94 0.052 -.0379864 7.729397 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Instrumented: ur Instruments: L.pic epi seas1 seas2 seas3 seas4 seas5 seas6 seas7 seas8 seas9 seas10 seas11 seas12 seas13 seas14 seas15 seas16 seas17 seas18 seas19 seas20 seas21 seas22 seas23 seas24 seas25 seas26 seas27 seas28 1990.year 1991.year 1992.year 1993.year 1994.year 1995.year 1996.year 1997.year 1998.year 1999.year 2000.year 2001.year 2002.year 2003.year 2004.year 2005.year 2006.year 2007.year 2008.year 2009.year 2010.year 2011.year 2012.year 2013.year 2014.year 2015.year 2016.year 2.area_id 3.area_id 4.area_id 5.area_id 8.area_id 9.area_id 10.area_id 11.area_id 12.area_id 13.area_id 14.area_id 15.area_id 16.area_id 17.area_id 18.area_id 19.area_id 20.area_id 21.area_id 22.area_id 23.area_id 24.area_id 25.area_id 26.area_id 28.area_id 29.area_id 30.area_id 31.area_id bartik_defmp L.bartik_defmp L2.bartik_defmp L3.bartik_defmp L4.bartik_defmp L5.bartik_defmp L6.bartik_defmp . regress ur l(0/6).bartik_defmp l.pic epi seas1-seas28 i.year i.area_id if year<2018, vce(cl area_id) Linear regression Number of obs = 1525 F( 26, 27) = . Prob > F = . R-squared = 0.8222 Root MSE = .81074 (Std. Err. adjusted for 28 clusters in area_id) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Robust ur | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- bartik_defmp | --. | -.6038653 .4909335 -1.23 0.229 -1.611178 .403447 L1. | .3611914 .4645681 0.78 0.444 -.5920237 1.314407 L2. | .9740599 .2853512 3.41 0.002 .3885676 1.559552 L3. | .3024308 .2155519 1.40 0.172 -.1398452 .7447068 L4. | .7743263 .3721394 2.08 0.047 .0107593 1.537893 L5. | .7578311 .5438544 1.39 0.175 -.358066 1.873728 L6. | .0231931 .4114293 0.06 0.955 -.82099 .8673762 | pic | L1. | -.2187157 .0383841 -5.70 0.000 -.2974733 -.1399581 | epi | -.0230994 .1621321 -0.14 0.888 -.355767 .3095683 seas1 | -.5763863 .0022953 -251.12 0.000 -.5810959 -.5716767 seas2 | -.4718768 .0196252 -24.04 0.000 -.5121444 -.4316092 seas3 | -.3845943 .0222443 -17.29 0.000 -.4302358 -.3389529 seas4 | -.3981174 .0121204 -32.85 0.000 -.4229864 -.3732484 seas5 | -.1519103 .0188742 -8.05 0.000 -.1906369 -.1131837 seas6 | -.5010293 .0077551 -64.61 0.000 -.5169414 -.4851172 seas7 | -.2706368 .0034478 -78.50 0.000 -.2777111 -.2635625 seas8 | -.1615943 .0092688 -17.43 0.000 -.1806122 -.1425764 seas9 | -.3171554 .0206094 -15.39 0.000 -.3594424 -.2748684 seas10 | -.4548242 .0064689 -70.31 0.000 -.4680973 -.4415511 seas11 | -.1473149 .008973 -16.42 0.000 -.1657259 -.1289038 seas12 | -.3543257 .0128625 -27.55 0.000 -.3807173 -.327934 seas13 | -.1633698 .0263913 -6.19 0.000 -.2175203 -.1092193 seas14 | -.0681221 .0083329 -8.18 0.000 -.0852198 -.0510243 seas15 | .5002044 .0521264 9.60 0.000 .3932498 .6071589 seas16 | .241448 .0527288 4.58 0.000 .1332575 .3496384 seas17 | .2846172 .0409472 6.95 0.000 .2006004 .368634 seas18 | -.1393611 .0078662 -17.72 0.000 -.1555012 -.123221 seas19 | -.0088691 .0163258 -0.54 0.591 -.0423668 .0246286 seas20 | .2444421 .0439497 5.56 0.000 .1542648 .3346194 seas21 | .4630687 .0659027 7.03 0.000 .3278476 .5982898 seas22 | -.236738 .0231396 -10.23 0.000 -.2842166 -.1892595 seas23 | .242946 .0302577 8.03 0.000 .1808623 .3050297 seas24 | .1002433 .0234848 4.27 0.000 .0520565 .14843 seas25 | -.1063043 .0092149 -11.54 0.000 -.1252118 -.0873968 seas26 | .2190078 .0290145 7.55 0.000 .159475 .2785406 seas27 | .0095351 .0084741 1.13 0.270 -.0078522 .0269224 seas28 | -.6843695 .0122937 -55.67 0.000 -.709594 -.6591449 | year | 1991 | 1.319666 .1846829 7.15 0.000 .9407284 1.698604 1992 | 1.738942 .2404984 7.23 0.000 1.24548 2.232404 1993 | 1.125952 .1869063 6.02 0.000 .742452 1.509452 1994 | .4662062 .2237192 2.08 0.047 .0071724 .9252401 1995 | -.1009993 .2358271 -0.43 0.672 -.5848766 .382878 1996 | -.2706372 .2628293 -1.03 0.312 -.8099184 .268644 1997 | -.8696724 .2701123 -3.22 0.003 -1.423897 -.3154478 1998 | -1.363813 .2806979 -4.86 0.000 -1.939758 -.7878689 1999 | -1.63622 .2497283 -6.55 0.000 -2.148621 -1.12382 2000 | -1.635299 .2313835 -7.07 0.000 -2.110059 -1.160539 2001 | -.7916295 .2238958 -3.54 0.001 -1.251026 -.3322332 2002 | .290093 .2378506 1.22 0.233 -.1979362 .7781222 2003 | .1521939 .2770992 0.55 0.587 -.4163667 .7207545 2004 | -.5285072 .2236088 -2.36 0.026 -.9873146 -.0696999 2005 | -.8140111 .224044 -3.63 0.001 -1.273711 -.3543108 2006 | -1.080409 .2116978 -5.10 0.000 -1.514777 -.646041 2007 | -.924258 .2017215 -4.58 0.000 -1.338156 -.5103596 2008 | .1157554 .2171284 0.53 0.598 -.3297551 .561266 2009 | 3.205458 .3434334 9.33 0.000 2.500791 3.910125 2010 | 3.283164 .3224052 10.18 0.000 2.621643 3.944684 2011 | 2.677933 .269045 9.95 0.000 2.125898 3.229968 2012 | 2.066065 .2103227 9.82 0.000 1.634519 2.497612 2013 | 1.47572 .1965448 7.51 0.000 1.072444 1.878997 2014 | .5354702 .1930065 2.77 0.010 .1394535 .9314868 2015 | -.3825523 .2567439 -1.49 0.148 -.9093474 .1442427 2016 | -.7079346 .3029035 -2.34 0.027 -1.329441 -.086428 2017 | -1.261209 .301242 -4.19 0.000 -1.879307 -.6431119 | area_id | 2 | -.2970609 .0337726 -8.80 0.000 -.3663566 -.2277652 3 | -.6489663 .0275879 -23.52 0.000 -.705572 -.5923606 4 | -.4240205 .0183801 -23.07 0.000 -.4617332 -.3863077 5 | -.7962856 .0331712 -24.01 0.000 -.8643473 -.7282238 8 | .3761298 .0161292 23.32 0.000 .3430353 .4092242 9 | -.8345711 .0016959 -492.12 0.000 -.8380507 -.8310915 10 | .4189356 .0029213 143.41 0.000 .4129415 .4249297 11 | -.0979069 .0043743 -22.38 0.000 -.1068823 -.0889315 12 | .6619964 .0214862 30.81 0.000 .6179104 .7060823 13 | 1.224979 .0235841 51.94 0.000 1.176589 1.27337 14 | -1.751208 .0197662 -88.60 0.000 -1.791765 -1.710651 15 | -.337471 .0371346 -9.09 0.000 -.4136649 -.2612771 16 | -1.829753 .0189235 -96.69 0.000 -1.86858 -1.790925 17 | .0475912 .0268792 1.77 0.088 -.0075603 .1027427 18 | -.7192921 .0530154 -13.57 0.000 -.8280708 -.6105135 19 | -.3397697 .0561203 -6.05 0.000 -.4549191 -.2246203 20 | -.5084742 .0206957 -24.57 0.000 -.5509383 -.4660101 21 | -.8685354 .0319591 -27.18 0.000 -.9341101 -.8029607 22 | -.44374 .0346586 -12.80 0.000 -.5148536 -.3726264 23 | -1.01882 .0789415 -12.91 0.000 -1.180795 -.8568454 24 | -1.049239 .0116234 -90.27 0.000 -1.073088 -1.02539 25 | .8266902 .0282911 29.22 0.000 .7686416 .8847387 26 | -.6336656 .0123964 -51.12 0.000 -.6591009 -.6082303 28 | -.5463913 .0288292 -18.95 0.000 -.6055439 -.4872386 29 | -.2248492 .0192721 -11.67 0.000 -.2643923 -.1853061 30 | -2.04766 .0122441 -167.24 0.000 -2.072783 -2.022538 31 | .4534819 .0178892 25.35 0.000 .4167764 .4901874 | _cons | 6.446611 .5921376 10.89 0.000 5.231645 7.661577 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . do "C:\Users\320491\AppData\Local\Temp\STD0e000000.tmp" . g bartik_defmp3y=(bartik_defmp+l.bartik_defmp+l2.bartik_defmp+ /// > l3.bartik_defmp)/4 bartik_defmp3y already defined r(110); end of do-file r(110); . do "C:\Users\320491\AppData\Local\Temp\STD0e000000.tmp" . g bartik_defmp2y=(bartik_defmp+l.bartik_defmp+l2.bartik_defmp+ /// > l3.bartik_defmp)/4 (112 missing values generated) . end of do-file . ivregress 2sls pic (ur = bartik_mp2y) l.pic epi seas1-seas28 i.area_id if year<2018, vce(cl area_id) variable bartik_mp2y not found r(111); . ivregress 2sls pic (ur = bartik_defmp2y) l.pic epi seas1-seas28 i.area_id if year<2018, vce(cl area_id) Instrumental variables (2SLS) regression Number of obs = 1525 Wald chi2(58) = 228.64 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 R-squared = 0.1637 Root MSE = 1.3251 (Std. Err. adjusted for 28 clusters in area_id) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Robust pic | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- ur | -.5449452 .1567052 -3.48 0.001 -.8520817 -.2378087 | pic | L1. | .2527635 .0702505 3.60 0.000 .1150751 .3904518 | epi | .7429992 .096921 7.67 0.000 .5530376 .9329608 seas1 | -.423655 .0903799 -4.69 0.000 -.6007964 -.2465137 seas2 | -1.038749 .0664409 -15.63 0.000 -1.168971 -.9085272 seas3 | -1.074452 .0523661 -20.52 0.000 -1.177088 -.9718163 seas4 | .03497 .0721203 0.48 0.628 -.1063832 .1763231 seas5 | -.8578029 .022618 -37.93 0.000 -.9021335 -.8134723 seas6 | -.0515686 .0829022 -0.62 0.534 -.2140538 .1109167 seas7 | -.1144339 .0440043 -2.60 0.009 -.2006807 -.028187 seas8 | -.5668229 .020966 -27.04 0.000 -.6079156 -.5257302 seas9 | .4632731 .0659059 7.03 0.000 .3341 .5924463 seas10 | -.6065143 .0700305 -8.66 0.000 -.7437716 -.4692571 seas11 | -.4662018 .0213948 -21.79 0.000 -.5081347 -.4242688 seas12 | -.7844731 .0510914 -15.35 0.000 -.8846104 -.6843358 seas13 | -1.165777 .0274019 -42.54 0.000 -1.219484 -1.11207 seas14 | -.4924451 .010634 -46.31 0.000 -.5132873 -.4716029 seas15 | -1.702015 .121392 -14.02 0.000 -1.939939 -1.464091 seas16 | -1.774809 .0866951 -20.47 0.000 -1.944728 -1.604889 seas17 | -1.322623 .0728181 -18.16 0.000 -1.465344 -1.179902 seas18 | -.4240773 .0210919 -20.11 0.000 -.4654166 -.382738 seas19 | -.5424677 .0151896 -35.71 0.000 -.5722387 -.5126967 seas20 | -1.515804 .0776473 -19.52 0.000 -1.66799 -1.363618 seas21 | -1.916077 .1317006 -14.55 0.000 -2.174205 -1.657948 seas22 | -.8903683 .0312065 -28.53 0.000 -.9515319 -.8292046 seas23 | -1.004773 .064546 -15.57 0.000 -1.131281 -.8782649 seas24 | -.7856387 .0392473 -20.02 0.000 -.8625619 -.7087154 seas25 | -.1569139 .0170601 -9.20 0.000 -.1903511 -.1234767 seas26 | -1.033438 .0597035 -17.31 0.000 -1.150454 -.9164211 seas27 | -.4590749 .011182 -41.05 0.000 -.4809913 -.4371584 seas28 | -.8707942 .0990381 -8.79 0.000 -1.064905 -.6766831 | area_id | 2 | -.1753777 .0758953 -2.31 0.021 -.3241297 -.0266257 3 | -.2003014 .1250952 -1.60 0.109 -.4454834 .0448806 4 | -.6348821 .0750151 -8.46 0.000 -.7819091 -.4878552 5 | -.4635164 .151359 -3.06 0.002 -.7601745 -.1668583 8 | .1768491 .0628901 2.81 0.005 .0535867 .3001115 9 | -.5391232 .1320018 -4.08 0.000 -.797842 -.2804044 10 | .4553965 .064101 7.10 0.000 .3297608 .5810322 11 | -.5095052 .0135965 -37.47 0.000 -.5361538 -.4828567 12 | .1880959 .0889157 2.12 0.034 .0138244 .3623673 13 | .5334915 .1757353 3.04 0.002 .1890566 .8779263 14 | -.8905125 .2884381 -3.09 0.002 -1.455841 -.3251843 15 | -.0288573 .0800046 -0.36 0.718 -.1856634 .1279488 16 | -.9786891 .3004167 -3.26 0.001 -1.567495 -.3898831 17 | 1.00424 .0258515 38.85 0.000 .9535721 1.054908 18 | .1247891 .1604225 0.78 0.437 -.1896332 .4392114 19 | .3011154 .0823174 3.66 0.000 .1397762 .4624545 20 | -.3426194 .0952438 -3.60 0.000 -.5292937 -.155945 21 | -.5064078 .1579774 -3.21 0.001 -.8160378 -.1967779 22 | .3673547 .1020305 3.60 0.000 .1673787 .5673307 23 | .1931322 .1655109 1.17 0.243 -.1312631 .5175276 24 | .002796 .1685778 0.02 0.987 -.3276104 .3332025 25 | .8454922 .1156169 7.31 0.000 .6188873 1.072097 26 | .1499119 .1084741 1.38 0.167 -.0626934 .3625172 28 | -.1503812 .0786685 -1.91 0.056 -.3045687 .0038062 29 | .5004419 .041145 12.16 0.000 .4197992 .5810846 30 | -.973114 .3286707 -2.96 0.003 -1.617297 -.3289313 31 | .3058428 .0574981 5.32 0.000 .1931487 .418537 | _cons | 3.033799 .9113244 3.33 0.001 1.247636 4.819962 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Instrumented: ur Instruments: L.pic epi seas1 seas2 seas3 seas4 seas5 seas6 seas7 seas8 seas9 seas10 seas11 seas12 seas13 seas14 seas15 seas16 seas17 seas18 seas19 seas20 seas21 seas22 seas23 seas24 seas25 seas26 seas27 seas28 2.area_id 3.area_id 4.area_id 5.area_id 8.area_id 9.area_id 10.area_id 11.area_id 12.area_id 13.area_id 14.area_id 15.area_id 16.area_id 17.area_id 18.area_id 19.area_id 20.area_id 21.area_id 22.area_id 23.area_id 24.area_id 25.area_id 26.area_id 28.area_id 29.area_id 30.area_id 31.area_id bartik_defmp2y . ivregress 2sls pic (ur = bartik_defmp2y) l.pic epi seas1-seas28 i.area_id i.year if year<2018, vce(cl area_id) note: 1984.year identifies no observations in the sample note: 1985.year identifies no observations in the sample note: 1986.year identifies no observations in the sample note: 1987.year identifies no observations in the sample note: 1988.year identifies no observations in the sample note: 1989.year identifies no observations in the sample note: 2017.year omitted because of collinearity note: 2018.year identifies no observations in the sample Instrumental variables (2SLS) regression Number of obs = 1525 Wald chi2(85) =49796.60 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 R-squared = 0.4840 Root MSE = 1.0408 (Std. Err. adjusted for 28 clusters in area_id) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Robust pic | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- ur | -.4804812 .5113867 -0.94 0.347 -1.482781 .5218183 | pic | L1. | .0829115 .117957 0.70 0.482 -.14828 .314103 | epi | .2172331 .1463371 1.48 0.138 -.0695823 .5040485 seas1 | -.3945868 .2968432 -1.33 0.184 -.9763888 .1872153 seas2 | -.9059835 .2432574 -3.72 0.000 -1.382759 -.4292076 seas3 | -.9330915 .1976114 -4.72 0.000 -1.320403 -.5457802 seas4 | .0241773 .2069946 0.12 0.907 -.3815247 .4298792 seas5 | -.7488578 .0802487 -9.33 0.000 -.9061424 -.5915733 seas6 | -.0634444 .2588728 -0.25 0.806 -.5708257 .4439369 seas7 | -.1163562 .1403506 -0.83 0.407 -.3914383 .1587259 seas8 | -.5189288 .0840031 -6.18 0.000 -.6835719 -.3542857 seas9 | .3794064 .1657692 2.29 0.022 .0545048 .704308 seas10 | -.5419445 .2332062 -2.32 0.020 -.9990202 -.0848687 seas11 | -.4082044 .0766474 -5.33 0.000 -.5584305 -.2579783 seas12 | -.6926276 .1825108 -3.79 0.000 -1.050342 -.334913 seas13 | -1.021726 .0892168 -11.45 0.000 -1.196588 -.8468643 seas14 | -.4387114 .0347689 -12.62 0.000 -.5068572 -.3705655 seas15 | -1.46934 .2618678 -5.61 0.000 -1.982591 -.9560883 seas16 | -1.522629 .1328322 -11.46 0.000 -1.782975 -1.262283 seas17 | -1.102404 .1552635 -7.10 0.000 -1.406715 -.7980935 seas18 | -.3709986 .0717426 -5.17 0.000 -.5116114 -.2303858 seas19 | -.4556522 .0147168 -30.96 0.000 -.4844967 -.4268077 seas20 | -1.306026 .1323968 -9.86 0.000 -1.565519 -1.046533 seas21 | -1.621625 .2427751 -6.68 0.000 -2.097456 -1.145795 seas22 | -.7745759 .1242125 -6.24 0.000 -1.018028 -.5311238 seas23 | -.8863666 .1232684 -7.19 0.000 -1.127968 -.6447649 seas24 | -.6899329 .0544013 -12.68 0.000 -.7965574 -.5833084 seas25 | -.1527611 .0624552 -2.45 0.014 -.275171 -.0303512 seas26 | -.9198946 .1105582 -8.32 0.000 -1.136585 -.7032046 seas27 | -.4309405 .0081387 -52.95 0.000 -.446892 -.4149889 seas28 | -.7790302 .3504119 -2.22 0.026 -1.465825 -.0922355 | area_id | 2 | -.2517103 .1465498 -1.72 0.086 -.5389426 .035522 3 | -.225737 .3297274 -0.68 0.494 -.8719909 .4205168 4 | -.5972862 .2061105 -2.90 0.004 -1.001255 -.1933171 5 | -.506604 .4020878 -1.26 0.208 -1.294682 .2814735 8 | .2494834 .1960217 1.27 0.203 -.1347121 .633679 9 | -.4916372 .4279349 -1.15 0.251 -1.330374 .3470999 10 | .4234138 .2114787 2.00 0.045 .0089231 .8379044 11 | -.483141 .0511517 -9.45 0.000 -.5833964 -.3828855 12 | .1124792 .3412858 0.33 0.742 -.5564286 .781387 13 | .4109308 .6311426 0.65 0.515 -.826086 1.647948 14 | -.7962592 .8901264 -0.89 0.371 -2.540875 .9483565 15 | -.1058946 .1593066 -0.66 0.506 -.4181298 .2063406 16 | -.8329176 .9362354 -0.89 0.374 -2.667905 1.00207 17 | .9662032 .0330797 29.21 0.000 .9013682 1.031038 18 | -.0046058 .3679477 -0.01 0.990 -.72577 .7165584 19 | .5056133 .1811518 2.79 0.005 .1505623 .8606642 20 | -.2998194 .257111 -1.17 0.244 -.8037476 .2041088 21 | -.5016911 .4324329 -1.16 0.246 -1.349244 .3458618 22 | .3156996 .2285435 1.38 0.167 -.1322374 .7636366 23 | .1747842 .4892866 0.36 0.721 -.7841998 1.133768 24 | .1128015 .5323689 0.21 0.832 -.9306223 1.156225 25 | .7251044 .4354379 1.67 0.096 -.1283381 1.578547 26 | .209213 .3250941 0.64 0.520 -.4279598 .8463857 28 | -.0423533 .2525216 -0.17 0.867 -.5372865 .45258 29 | .5240773 .1007477 5.20 0.000 .3266156 .7215391 30 | -.8080581 1.050366 -0.77 0.442 -2.866738 1.250622 31 | .2550743 .2283826 1.12 0.264 -.1925474 .7026961 | year | 1984 | 0 (empty) 1985 | 0 (empty) 1986 | 0 (empty) 1987 | 0 (empty) 1988 | 0 (empty) 1989 | 0 (empty) 1990 | 3.158389 .9448449 3.34 0.001 1.306528 5.010251 1991 | 3.122084 1.462097 2.14 0.033 .2564266 5.987741 1992 | 2.574892 1.632585 1.58 0.115 -.6249155 5.774699 1993 | 2.114841 1.287262 1.64 0.100 -.4081463 4.637829 1994 | 1.557158 .8768861 1.78 0.076 -.1615071 3.275823 1995 | 1.216074 .5936821 2.05 0.041 .0524787 2.37967 1996 | .8701409 .4916112 1.77 0.077 -.0933993 1.833681 1997 | .4039191 .295696 1.37 0.172 -.1756345 .9834727 1998 | .4732172 .1973835 2.40 0.017 .0863526 .8600819 1999 | .1356336 .248355 0.55 0.585 -.3511333 .6224005 2000 | .5876637 .2553588 2.30 0.021 .0871696 1.088158 2001 | 1.08057 .3039178 3.56 0.000 .4849024 1.676239 2002 | 1.176391 .8646946 1.36 0.174 -.518379 2.871161 2003 | .2998157 .8677692 0.35 0.730 -1.400981 2.000612 2004 | .4344584 .570581 0.76 0.446 -.6838599 1.552777 2005 | .5037308 .5050011 1.00 0.319 -.4860531 1.493515 2006 | .9763932 .358539 2.72 0.006 .2736697 1.679117 2007 | .3501392 .349374 1.00 0.316 -.3346213 1.0349 2008 | .758299 .9166094 0.83 0.408 -1.038222 2.55482 2009 | 2.051701 2.391107 0.86 0.391 -2.634783 6.738186 2010 | 1.501934 2.418606 0.62 0.535 -3.238447 6.242315 2011 | 2.052669 2.181337 0.94 0.347 -2.222672 6.328011 2012 | 1.795155 1.771076 1.01 0.311 -1.676089 5.2664 2013 | 1.296753 1.430516 0.91 0.365 -1.507006 4.100513 2014 | .6480229 .8600568 0.75 0.451 -1.037657 2.333703 2015 | .582926 .3931277 1.48 0.138 -.1875901 1.353442 2016 | .6997064 .2533609 2.76 0.006 .2031281 1.196285 2017 | 0 (omitted) 2018 | 0 (empty) | _cons | 3.455311 2.750856 1.26 0.209 -1.936267 8.84689 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Instrumented: ur Instruments: L.pic epi seas1 seas2 seas3 seas4 seas5 seas6 seas7 seas8 seas9 seas10 seas11 seas12 seas13 seas14 seas15 seas16 seas17 seas18 seas19 seas20 seas21 seas22 seas23 seas24 seas25 seas26 seas27 seas28 2.area_id 3.area_id 4.area_id 5.area_id 8.area_id 9.area_id 10.area_id 11.area_id 12.area_id 13.area_id 14.area_id 15.area_id 16.area_id 17.area_id 18.area_id 19.area_id 20.area_id 21.area_id 22.area_id 23.area_id 24.area_id 25.area_id 26.area_id 28.area_id 29.area_id 30.area_id 31.area_id 1990.year 1991.year 1992.year 1993.year 1994.year 1995.year 1996.year 1997.year 1998.year 1999.year 2000.year 2001.year 2002.year 2003.year 2004.year 2005.year 2006.year 2007.year 2008.year 2009.year 2010.year 2011.year 2012.year 2013.year 2014.year 2015.year 2016.year bartik_defmp2y . regress ur bartik_defmp2y l.pic epi seas1-seas28 i.area_id if year<2018, vce(cl area_id) Linear regression Number of obs = 1525 F( 2, 27) = . Prob > F = . R-squared = 0.2455 Root MSE = 1.6512 (Std. Err. adjusted for 28 clusters in area_id) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | Robust ur | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] ---------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- bartik_defmp2y | 3.491968 .8628884 4.05 0.000 1.721467 5.262468 | pic | L1. | -.2894416 .0603331 -4.80 0.000 -.4132349 -.1656484 | epi | .3912437 .1144698 3.42 0.002 .1563711 .6261163 seas1 | -.5747938 .0013616 -422.13 0.000 -.5775877 -.5719999 seas2 | -.4481666 .0288923 -15.51 0.000 -.5074488 -.3888845 seas3 | -.3539751 .0337103 -10.50 0.000 -.423143 -.2848073 seas4 | -.428457 .0168718 -25.39 0.000 -.463075 -.393839 seas5 | -.1289283 .0279032 -4.62 0.000 -.1861808 -.0716757 seas6 | -.5095808 .0111629 -45.65 0.000 -.5324851 -.4866765 seas7 | -.2730743 .0043397 -62.93 0.000 -.2819786 -.26417 seas8 | -.1417161 .0145861 -9.72 0.000 -.1716442 -.111788 seas9 | -.3522363 .0320409 -10.99 0.000 -.4179788 -.2864938 seas10 | -.4552262 .0072731 -62.59 0.000 -.4701494 -.4403029 seas11 | -.143245 .0114485 -12.51 0.000 -.1667355 -.1197546 seas12 | -.3426246 .0180853 -18.94 0.000 -.3797326 -.3055165 seas13 | -.1298776 .0388562 -3.34 0.002 -.2096039 -.0501513 seas14 | -.066332 .0105448 -6.29 0.000 -.0879681 -.0446959 seas15 | .5843887 .0808806 7.23 0.000 .4184354 .7503421 seas16 | .3259095 .0817155 3.99 0.000 .1582431 .4935758 seas17 | .2819254 .0670496 4.20 0.000 .1443509 .4194998 seas18 | -.1407207 .0087548 -16.07 0.000 -.1586841 -.1227574 seas19 | .0033085 .0220158 0.15 0.882 -.0418641 .0484812 seas20 | .3135684 .0679813 4.61 0.000 .1740824 .4530545 seas21 | .584027 .1036007 5.64 0.000 .3714559 .796598 seas22 | -.1901126 .0364557 -5.21 0.000 -.2649135 -.1153117 seas23 | .2999519 .0471765 6.36 0.000 .2031537 .3967502 seas24 | .1488983 .0371405 4.01 0.000 .0726923 .2251043 seas25 | -.105753 .0032087 -32.96 0.000 -.1123367 -.0991693 seas26 | .2730158 .0450215 6.06 0.000 .1806393 .3653924 seas27 | .0306441 .0132081 2.32 0.028 .0035433 .0577449 seas28 | -.6559146 .0193776 -33.85 0.000 -.6956741 -.6161551 | area_id | 2 | -.3834038 .0489652 -7.83 0.000 -.4838721 -.2829354 3 | -.7250784 .0408751 -17.74 0.000 -.8089473 -.6412096 4 | -.4694148 .0164172 -28.59 0.000 -.5031002 -.4357295 5 | -.8824335 .0489563 -18.02 0.000 -.9828835 -.7819835 8 | .3700129 .0177326 20.87 0.000 .3336286 .4063971 9 | -.83713 .002377 -352.18 0.000 -.8420071 -.8322528 10 | .4166944 .0025546 163.11 0.000 .4114527 .421936 11 | -.0903351 .0063201 -14.29 0.000 -.1033028 -.0773674 12 | .5989787 .0301147 19.89 0.000 .5371884 .660769 13 | 1.158133 .0330798 35.01 0.000 1.090258 1.226007 14 | -1.808351 .0251535 -71.89 0.000 -1.859962 -1.756741 15 | -.4241443 .0487033 -8.71 0.000 -.5240751 -.3242135 16 | -1.886076 .0189776 -99.38 0.000 -1.925014 -1.847137 17 | -.0326619 .0375359 -0.87 0.392 -.1096792 .0443553 18 | -.8533325 .0822206 -10.38 0.000 -1.022035 -.6846297 19 | -.4336344 .0459284 -9.44 0.000 -.5278716 -.3393971 20 | -.5711554 .0234554 -24.35 0.000 -.6192819 -.523029 21 | -.9536424 .0407007 -23.43 0.000 -1.037153 -.8701315 22 | -.541443 .0520053 -10.41 0.000 -.6481492 -.4347369 23 | -.8893026 .1081664 -8.22 0.000 -1.111242 -.6673635 24 | -1.076119 .0076705 -140.29 0.000 -1.091858 -1.06038 25 | .7587983 .0364441 20.82 0.000 .6840213 .8335753 26 | -.6703391 .0123757 -54.17 0.000 -.6957318 -.6449463 28 | -.558839 .0204051 -27.39 0.000 -.6007069 -.5169711 29 | -.2632008 .0142568 -18.46 0.000 -.2924534 -.2339482 30 | -2.079011 .0090349 -230.11 0.000 -2.097549 -2.060473 31 | .401108 .0250011 16.04 0.000 .34981 .452406 | _cons | 5.637809 .3041171 18.54 0.000 5.013812 6.261805 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- . regress ur bartik_defmp2y l.pic epi5 seas1-seas28 i.area_id if year<2018, vce(cl area_id) Linear regression Number of obs = 1525 F( 2, 27) = . Prob > F = . R-squared = 0.2703 Root MSE = 1.6238 (Std. Err. adjusted for 28 clusters in area_id) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | Robust ur | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] ---------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- bartik_defmp2y | 3.836459 .850104 4.51 0.000 2.09219 5.580729 | pic | L1. | -.4115907 .067522 -6.10 0.000 -.5501344 -.273047 | epi5 | .9300687 .167643 5.55 0.000 .5860937 1.274044 seas1 | -.5307826 .0082926 -64.01 0.000 -.5477976 -.5137675 seas2 | -.3323454 .0397191 -8.37 0.000 -.4138421 -.2508486 seas3 | -.2287084 .0450326 -5.08 0.000 -.3211076 -.1363091 seas4 | -.4048061 .0133566 -30.31 0.000 -.4322115 -.3774007 seas5 | -.0152272 .0386132 -0.39 0.696 -.094455 .0640005 seas6 | -.5174573 .0108477 -47.70 0.000 -.5397148 -.4951997 seas7 | -.2365533 .0066151 -35.76 0.000 -.2501263 -.2229803 seas8 | -.0674474 .0228483 -2.95 0.006 -.1143282 -.0205665 seas9 | -.3721201 .0308999 -12.04 0.000 -.4355215 -.3087188 seas10 | -.3839566 .0160251 -23.96 0.000 -.4168373 -.3510758 seas11 | -.0631773 .0205376 -3.08 0.005 -.1053171 -.0210376 seas12 | -.2489424 .0277799 -8.96 0.000 -.305942 -.1919428 seas13 | .0066407 .0508215 0.13 0.897 -.0976364 .1109177 seas14 | -.003125 .0169437 -0.18 0.855 -.0378906 .0316406 seas15 | .7907455 .0956566 8.27 0.000 .5944744 .9870167 seas16 | .5341404 .0966047 5.53 0.000 .3359241 .7323568 seas17 | .4304873 .0765162 5.63 0.000 .2734889 .5874856 seas18 | -.0809996 .014962 -5.41 0.000 -.111699 -.0503002 seas19 | .0910142 .0298958 3.04 0.005 .0296731 .1523552 seas20 | .4937728 .0812229 6.08 0.000 .3271171 .6604285 seas21 | .8281259 .1200629 6.90 0.000 .5817772 1.074475 seas22 | -.101901 .0427272 -2.38 0.024 -.18957 -.0142319 seas23 | .4104292 .0547455 7.50 0.000 .2981007 .5227577 seas24 | .2381985 .0434767 5.48 0.000 .1489916 .3274054 seas25 | -.0860985 .0052416 -16.43 0.000 -.0968534 -.0753435 seas26 | .3792385 .0523412 7.25 0.000 .2718432 .4866337 seas27 | .0711929 .0167567 4.25 0.000 .0368111 .1055748 seas28 | -.602817 .0236279 -25.51 0.000 -.6512975 -.5543365 | area_id | 2 | -.4124785 .045809 -9.00 0.000 -.5064707 -.3184862 3 | -.7348991 .0366457 -20.05 0.000 -.8100898 -.6597084 4 | -.4285188 .0079827 -53.68 0.000 -.4448979 -.4121397 5 | -.9106218 .045805 -19.88 0.000 -1.004606 -.8166376 8 | .4090203 .0187766 21.78 0.000 .3704938 .4475467 9 | -.8412116 .0026101 -322.29 0.000 -.846567 -.8358561 10 | .4136669 .0027073 152.80 0.000 .4081119 .4192218 11 | -.0769028 .0071114 -10.81 0.000 -.0914941 -.0623114 12 | .6120416 .024369 25.12 0.000 .5620405 .6620428 13 | 1.163897 .0277187 41.99 0.000 1.107023 1.220771 14 | -1.786106 .0185162 -96.46 0.000 -1.824098 -1.748114 15 | -.4562128 .0454697 -10.03 0.000 -.5495088 -.3629167 16 | -1.891506 .0157625 -120.00 0.000 -1.923848 -1.859164 17 | -.0799626 .0380817 -2.10 0.045 -.1580997 -.0018254 18 | -.9944169 .0889882 -11.17 0.000 -1.177005 -.8118282 19 | -.3002802 .033355 -9.00 0.000 -.368719 -.2318414 20 | -.5888123 .0211845 -27.79 0.000 -.6322793 -.5453454 21 | -1.012964 .041542 -24.38 0.000 -1.098202 -.9277272 22 | -.6187879 .0547201 -11.31 0.000 -.7310643 -.5065116 23 | -.8944601 .0952103 -9.39 0.000 -1.089815 -.6991048 24 | -1.073476 .0039963 -268.61 0.000 -1.081676 -1.065277 25 | .687846 .0397905 17.29 0.000 .6062026 .7694894 26 | -.6830708 .0117794 -57.99 0.000 -.7072401 -.6589015 28 | -.5382908 .0188391 -28.57 0.000 -.5769453 -.4996362 29 | -.2837229 .0127824 -22.20 0.000 -.3099501 -.2574956 30 | -2.081799 .0076084 -273.62 0.000 -2.097411 -2.066188 31 | .3620987 .0267926 13.51 0.000 .3071248 .4170725 | _cons | 4.242238 .4133061 10.26 0.000 3.394204 5.090272 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- . regress ur drfed l.pic epi seas1-seas28 i.area_id if year<2018, vce(cl area_id) Linear regression Number of obs = 1525 F( 2, 27) = . Prob > F = . R-squared = 0.2311 Root MSE = 1.6668 (Std. Err. adjusted for 28 clusters in area_id) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Robust ur | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- drfed | -.0122413 .010874 -1.13 0.270 -.0345529 .0100703 | pic | L1. | -.3110617 .0575277 -5.41 0.000 -.4290987 -.1930246 | epi | .3915856 .1177271 3.33 0.003 .1500297 .6331416 seas1 | -.5795121 .0032872 -176.30 0.000 -.5862568 -.5727674 seas2 | -.4429621 .0280401 -15.80 0.000 -.5004955 -.3854286 seas3 | -.3460563 .032517 -10.64 0.000 -.4127757 -.2793368 seas4 | -.44006 .0157768 -27.89 0.000 -.4724313 -.4076887 seas5 | -.1237374 .027063 -4.57 0.000 -.1792661 -.0682086 seas6 | -.5181278 .0107564 -48.17 0.000 -.5401981 -.4960575 seas7 | -.2788961 .0048738 -57.22 0.000 -.2888963 -.2688959 seas8 | -.1405242 .0145691 -9.65 0.000 -.1704175 -.1106309 seas9 | -.3680302 .0303419 -12.13 0.000 -.4302865 -.3057738 seas10 | -.456688 .0075094 -60.82 0.000 -.4720961 -.4412799 seas11 | -.1436003 .0114415 -12.55 0.000 -.1670764 -.1201242 seas12 | -.3407523 .0177215 -19.23 0.000 -.3771139 -.3043908 seas13 | -.1226037 .0376793 -3.25 0.003 -.1999152 -.0452922 seas14 | -.0657278 .0103901 -6.33 0.000 -.0870465 -.0444091 seas15 | .6099743 .0773602 7.88 0.000 .4512443 .7687043 seas16 | .3512418 .0782154 4.49 0.000 .1907571 .5117266 seas17 | .290685 .0660625 4.40 0.000 .1551359 .426234 seas18 | -.1415525 .0088062 -16.07 0.000 -.1596214 -.1234837 seas19 | .0054998 .0215407 0.26 0.800 -.0386981 .0496976 seas20 | .3345864 .0650585 5.14 0.000 .2010974 .4680753 seas21 | .5978784 .1015514 5.89 0.000 .3895122 .8062447 seas22 | -.1819849 .0353445 -5.15 0.000 -.2545058 -.1094639 seas23 | .3102023 .045703 6.79 0.000 .2164275 .4039771 seas24 | .1582317 .0359004 4.41 0.000 .0845702 .2318932 seas25 | -.1143775 .0045704 -25.03 0.000 -.1237552 -.1049998 seas26 | .2821263 .0436886 6.46 0.000 .1924847 .3717678 seas27 | .0318421 .0133012 2.39 0.024 .0045503 .0591339 seas28 | -.6524375 .0190494 -34.25 0.000 -.6915237 -.6133514 | area_id | 2 | -.3888918 .0478941 -8.12 0.000 -.4871623 -.2906214 3 | -.7369312 .0394478 -18.68 0.000 -.8178715 -.6559909 4 | -.4578905 .0164339 -27.86 0.000 -.4916102 -.4241709 5 | -.8911548 .0476358 -18.71 0.000 -.9888954 -.7934142 8 | .3766364 .0170034 22.15 0.000 .3417482 .4115246 9 | -.8399355 .0020174 -416.35 0.000 -.8440749 -.8357962 10 | .4109588 .0016633 247.08 0.000 .407546 .4143715 11 | -.0901476 .0062261 -14.48 0.000 -.1029225 -.0773727 12 | .5895209 .0291073 20.25 0.000 .5297976 .6492442 13 | 1.151607 .0322172 35.75 0.000 1.085503 1.217712 14 | -1.810251 .0247611 -73.11 0.000 -1.861057 -1.759446 15 | -.4152199 .0486097 -8.54 0.000 -.5149587 -.315481 16 | -1.89796 .0185526 -102.30 0.000 -1.936027 -1.859893 17 | -.0486228 .0360008 -1.35 0.188 -.1224904 .0252448 18 | -.8804092 .0788713 -11.16 0.000 -1.04224 -.7185787 19 | -.4253109 .0491153 -8.66 0.000 -.5260872 -.3245347 20 | -.5775261 .0230367 -25.07 0.000 -.6247934 -.5302587 21 | -.949294 .0404211 -23.49 0.000 -1.032231 -.8663567 22 | -.5632958 .0496387 -11.35 0.000 -.6651461 -.4614455 23 | -.8121771 .1124122 -7.22 0.000 -1.042828 -.5815264 24 | -1.072814 .0077094 -139.16 0.000 -1.088633 -1.056996 25 | .7661223 .0363963 21.05 0.000 .6914433 .8408013 26 | -.6792519 .012037 -56.43 0.000 -.7039498 -.6545539 28 | -.5090763 .0114791 -44.35 0.000 -.5326295 -.485523 29 | -.2433243 .0139011 -17.50 0.000 -.271847 -.2148017 30 | -2.09079 .0089876 -232.63 0.000 -2.109231 -2.072349 31 | .3823754 .0232631 16.44 0.000 .3346435 .4301072 | _cons | 5.719511 .3166398 18.06 0.000 5.06982 6.369202 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . regress ur l(0/4).drdef l.pic epi seas1-seas28 i.area_id if year<2018, vce(cl area_id) Linear regression Number of obs = 1525 F( 6, 27) = . Prob > F = . R-squared = 0.3431 Root MSE = 1.5427 (Std. Err. adjusted for 28 clusters in area_id) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Robust ur | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- drdef | --. | -.077294 .006177 -12.51 0.000 -.0899682 -.0646197 L1. | -.0441089 .0057778 -7.63 0.000 -.055964 -.0322538 L2. | .0462991 .0039486 11.73 0.000 .0381972 .054401 L3. | .0879124 .0058728 14.97 0.000 .0758624 .0999623 L4. | .0720417 .0055052 13.09 0.000 .0607459 .0833374 | pic | L1. | -.2471615 .0533946 -4.63 0.000 -.3567181 -.1376048 | epi | .1622439 .1013131 1.60 0.121 -.0456335 .3701212 seas1 | -.5791051 .0031956 -181.22 0.000 -.5856619 -.5725483 seas2 | -.4683348 .0254551 -18.40 0.000 -.5205643 -.4161054 seas3 | -.3764231 .0295822 -12.72 0.000 -.4371207 -.3157256 seas4 | -.4171904 .0157158 -26.55 0.000 -.4494365 -.3849442 seas5 | -.1480193 .0245557 -6.03 0.000 -.1984034 -.0976352 seas6 | -.5076428 .0108849 -46.64 0.000 -.5299768 -.4853089 seas7 | -.274582 .0052973 -51.83 0.000 -.2854512 -.2637127 seas8 | -.1559741 .0125134 -12.46 0.000 -.1816495 -.1302986 seas9 | -.3342094 .0291763 -11.45 0.000 -.3940742 -.2743446 seas10 | -.4588162 .0070036 -65.51 0.000 -.4731864 -.4444459 seas11 | -.1503082 .0103618 -14.51 0.000 -.1715688 -.1290476 seas12 | -.3545731 .0160003 -22.16 0.000 -.3874029 -.3217433 seas13 | -.1587229 .0343496 -4.62 0.000 -.2292023 -.0882434 seas14 | -.069849 .0096153 -7.26 0.000 -.0895781 -.05012 seas15 | .5309848 .0711792 7.46 0.000 .3849371 .6770325 seas16 | .2713015 .0719721 3.77 0.001 .123627 .418976 seas17 | .2203448 .0589878 3.74 0.001 .0993118 .3413778 seas18 | -.1438086 .0082745 -17.38 0.000 -.1607866 -.1268307 seas19 | -.011298 .0196008 -0.58 0.569 -.0515155 .0289194 seas20 | .2692749 .0597776 4.50 0.000 .1466213 .3919285 seas21 | .5335541 .0927579 5.75 0.000 .3432307 .7238775 seas22 | -.2217499 .0316961 -7.00 0.000 -.286785 -.1567148 seas23 | .2588816 .0413171 6.27 0.000 .174106 .3436572 seas24 | .1178459 .0322125 3.66 0.001 .0517513 .1839405 seas25 | -.1180438 .0033707 -35.02 0.000 -.1249598 -.1111277 seas26 | .233051 .0394463 5.91 0.000 .1521139 .3139881 seas27 | .0169347 .0112058 1.51 0.142 -.0060577 .039927 seas28 | -.6739126 .0165517 -40.72 0.000 -.7078739 -.6399513 | area_id | 2 | -.322335 .0436998 -7.38 0.000 -.4119996 -.2326703 3 | -.679951 .0358499 -18.97 0.000 -.753509 -.606393 4 | -.4281724 .0144499 -29.63 0.000 -.457821 -.3985237 5 | -.8248897 .0434598 -18.98 0.000 -.9140619 -.7357174 8 | .3719642 .0161701 23.00 0.000 .338786 .4051425 9 | -.8376947 .0018725 -447.38 0.000 -.8415366 -.8338527 10 | .4128063 .0015438 267.40 0.000 .4096387 .4159739 11 | -.0970634 .0057788 -16.80 0.000 -.1089205 -.0852063 12 | .6346139 .0262346 24.19 0.000 .580785 .6884427 13 | 1.200304 .029127 41.21 0.000 1.14054 1.260068 14 | -1.770263 .0221914 -79.77 0.000 -1.815796 -1.72473 15 | -.3478548 .0443648 -7.84 0.000 -.4388838 -.2568257 16 | -1.862987 .0161682 -115.23 0.000 -1.896161 -1.829813 17 | .0080847 .0323767 0.25 0.805 -.0583468 .0745163 18 | -.7749184 .0722236 -10.73 0.000 -.9231089 -.6267279 19 | -.4297372 .0428566 -10.03 0.000 -.5176716 -.3418027 20 | -.5365464 .02032 -26.40 0.000 -.5782395 -.4948533 21 | -.8874358 .0364884 -24.32 0.000 -.9623038 -.8125677 22 | -.4908419 .0450597 -10.89 0.000 -.5832968 -.398387 23 | -.8840147 .1032911 -8.56 0.000 -1.095951 -.6720788 24 | -1.058621 .0066964 -158.09 0.000 -1.072361 -1.044881 25 | .817951 .0331268 24.69 0.000 .7499803 .8859216 26 | -.6565341 .0104871 -62.60 0.000 -.6780519 -.6350163 28 | -.5064457 .010893 -46.49 0.000 -.5287963 -.4840951 29 | -.2180613 .0122106 -17.86 0.000 -.2431155 -.1930072 30 | -2.073039 .0077258 -268.33 0.000 -2.088891 -2.057187 31 | .419102 .0209148 20.04 0.000 .3761884 .4620157 | _cons | 6.169631 .2776465 22.22 0.000 5.599948 6.739315 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . regress ur l(0/4).bartik_defmp l.pic epi seas1-seas28 i.area_id if year<2018, vce(cl area_id) Linear regression Number of obs = 1525 F( 6, 27) = . Prob > F = . R-squared = 0.3155 Root MSE = 1.5748 (Std. Err. adjusted for 28 clusters in area_id) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Robust ur | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- bartik_defmp | --. | -3.603659 .8327021 -4.33 0.000 -5.312222 -1.895095 L1. | -2.055694 .5699149 -3.61 0.001 -3.225063 -.8863254 L2. | 2.34356 .4207528 5.57 0.000 1.480247 3.206874 L3. | 4.349427 .8191371 5.31 0.000 2.668697 6.030158 L4. | 3.601953 .7538656 4.78 0.000 2.055149 5.148758 | pic | L1. | -.2539142 .0575424 -4.41 0.000 -.3719814 -.1358469 | epi | .2353036 .1031699 2.28 0.031 .0236165 .4469907 seas1 | -.5788652 .0026291 -220.17 0.000 -.5842597 -.5734707 seas2 | -.4681632 .0267072 -17.53 0.000 -.5229619 -.4133645 seas3 | -.3745509 .0315446 -11.87 0.000 -.4392751 -.3098266 seas4 | -.4226722 .0182976 -23.10 0.000 -.4602157 -.3851287 seas5 | -.147556 .0258517 -5.71 0.000 -.2005994 -.0945127 seas6 | -.5081305 .011419 -44.50 0.000 -.5315603 -.4847008 seas7 | -.2745049 .00496 -55.34 0.000 -.284682 -.2643279 seas8 | -.1534344 .0135648 -11.31 0.000 -.1812671 -.1256018 seas9 | -.3372377 .0311483 -10.83 0.000 -.4011487 -.2733267 seas10 | -.4597294 .0067513 -68.09 0.000 -.473582 -.4458768 seas11 | -.1512444 .010554 -14.33 0.000 -.1728994 -.1295895 seas12 | -.3549627 .0166731 -21.29 0.000 -.3891731 -.3207522 seas13 | -.1592089 .035782 -4.45 0.000 -.2326275 -.0857904 seas14 | -.0699388 .0098528 -7.10 0.000 -.0901551 -.0497225 seas15 | .5384065 .0767545 7.01 0.000 .3809193 .6958937 seas16 | .2781656 .0772996 3.60 0.001 .1195599 .4367714 seas17 | .2391439 .0640119 3.74 0.001 .1078024 .3704854 seas18 | -.145017 .008098 -17.91 0.000 -.1616327 -.1284013 seas19 | -.0131412 .0202556 -0.65 0.522 -.0547022 .0284197 seas20 | .2753201 .0644809 4.27 0.000 .1430162 .4076241 seas21 | .5525276 .1001178 5.52 0.000 .3471028 .7579524 seas22 | -.2173015 .0340583 -6.38 0.000 -.2871833 -.1474197 seas23 | .2625054 .0436683 6.01 0.000 .1729055 .3521053 seas24 | .1234995 .0351141 3.52 0.002 .0514513 .1955478 seas25 | -.1226056 .010376 -11.82 0.000 -.1438953 -.1013158 seas26 | .2360023 .0415347 5.68 0.000 .1507801 .3212244 seas27 | .0204511 .012504 1.64 0.114 -.0052051 .0461073 seas28 | -.669637 .018421 -36.35 0.000 -.7074338 -.6318402 | area_id | 2 | -.3514341 .0462581 -7.60 0.000 -.4463479 -.2565202 3 | -.6918516 .038839 -17.81 0.000 -.7715427 -.6121605 4 | -.4610436 .0153137 -30.11 0.000 -.4924647 -.4296225 5 | -.8483429 .0463426 -18.31 0.000 -.94343 -.7532557 8 | .3696747 .0167037 22.13 0.000 .3354016 .4039479 9 | -.8344812 .0024079 -346.55 0.000 -.8394219 -.8295405 10 | .4212235 .0029467 142.95 0.000 .4151774 .4272696 11 | -.0927053 .0059704 -15.53 0.000 -.1049556 -.0804549 12 | .6267113 .0286051 21.91 0.000 .5680184 .6854041 13 | 1.185024 .0312834 37.88 0.000 1.120835 1.249212 14 | -1.787452 .0236334 -75.63 0.000 -1.835944 -1.738961 15 | -.4017886 .0458126 -8.77 0.000 -.4957882 -.3077889 16 | -1.857829 .0182014 -102.07 0.000 -1.895176 -1.820483 17 | .0054226 .035851 0.15 0.881 -.0681376 .0789828 18 | -.7918183 .0783249 -10.11 0.000 -.9525278 -.6311088 19 | -.3875292 .0442334 -8.76 0.000 -.4782886 -.2967698 20 | -.5447405 .0220847 -24.67 0.000 -.5900545 -.4994265 21 | -.9278049 .0381836 -24.30 0.000 -1.006151 -.8494586 22 | -.4942172 .049727 -9.94 0.000 -.5962486 -.3921858 23 | -.960633 .1108342 -8.67 0.000 -1.188046 -.7332201 24 | -1.068068 .0068385 -156.18 0.000 -1.082099 -1.054036 25 | .7762944 .0342547 22.66 0.000 .7060095 .8465793 26 | -.6511529 .0119652 -54.42 0.000 -.6757035 -.6266022 28 | -.5863705 .0235603 -24.89 0.000 -.6347122 -.5380289 29 | -.2629171 .0139348 -18.87 0.000 -.291509 -.2343252 30 | -2.059471 .009218 -223.42 0.000 -2.078385 -2.040557 31 | .431564 .0244278 17.67 0.000 .3814422 .4816857 | _cons | 5.992587 .2702924 22.17 0.000 5.437993 6.547181 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . ivregress 2sls pic (ur = i.area_id*drdef) l.pic epi seas1-seas28 i.area_id i.year if year<2018, vce(cl area_id) variable area_id*drdef not found r(111); . xi: ivregress 2sls pic (ur = i.area_id*drdef) l.pic epi seas1-seas28 i.area_id i.year if year<2018, vce(cl area_id) i.area_id _Iarea_id_1-31 (naturally coded; _Iarea_id_1 omitted) i.area_id*drdef _IareXdrde_# (coded as above) i.year _Iyear_1984-2018 (naturally coded; _Iyear_1984 omitted) note: _Iyear_1985 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_1986 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_1987 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_1988 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_1989 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_2017 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_2018 omitted because of collinearity Instrumental variables (2SLS) regression Number of obs = 1525 Wald chi2(85) =52123.04 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 R-squared = 0.4864 Root MSE = 1.0384 (Std. Err. adjusted for 28 clusters in area_id) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Robust pic | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- ur | -.3321227 .1222327 -2.72 0.007 -.5716943 -.092551 | pic | L1. | .1157788 .0404917 2.86 0.004 .0364165 .1951411 | epi | .2283116 .133235 1.71 0.087 -.0328242 .4894474 seas1 | -.3085141 .0708077 -4.36 0.000 -.4472946 -.1697336 seas2 | -.8354638 .0630268 -13.26 0.000 -.9589941 -.7119335 seas3 | -.8759106 .0538131 -16.28 0.000 -.9813823 -.770439 seas4 | .0842395 .0491484 1.71 0.087 -.0120895 .1805685 seas5 | -.7259245 .0270824 -26.80 0.000 -.779005 -.6728441 seas6 | .0115548 .0611794 0.19 0.850 -.1083546 .1314642 seas7 | -.0756945 .0332182 -2.28 0.023 -.1408009 -.010588 seas8 | -.4946879 .0224939 -21.99 0.000 -.5387752 -.4506006 seas9 | .4271591 .041018 10.41 0.000 .3467654 .5075528 seas10 | -.4742197 .0568093 -8.35 0.000 -.5855638 -.3628755 seas11 | -.385977 .0208606 -18.50 0.000 -.4268629 -.345091 seas12 | -.6396726 .046646 -13.71 0.000 -.731097 -.5482481 seas13 | -.9965007 .0332583 -29.96 0.000 -1.061686 -.9313156 seas14 | -.4287282 .0120212 -35.66 0.000 -.4522894 -.405167 seas15 | -1.544042 .0718973 -21.48 0.000 -1.684958 -1.403126 seas16 | -1.558748 .0523384 -29.78 0.000 -1.661329 -1.456167 seas17 | -1.14612 .0483622 -23.70 0.000 -1.240908 -1.051332 seas18 | -.3501539 .0193219 -18.12 0.000 -.388024 -.3122837 seas19 | -.4536015 .0144142 -31.47 0.000 -.4818529 -.4253501 seas20 | -1.342715 .0463402 -28.98 0.000 -1.43354 -1.251889 seas21 | -1.690032 .0759261 -22.26 0.000 -1.838844 -1.541219 seas22 | -.7390021 .037827 -19.54 0.000 -.8131416 -.6648626 seas23 | -.9214112 .0362874 -25.39 0.000 -.9925331 -.8502892 seas24 | -.7047041 .0223784 -31.49 0.000 -.748565 -.6608433 seas25 | -.1347204 .0150972 -8.92 0.000 -.1643103 -.1051305 seas26 | -.9512406 .03346 -28.43 0.000 -1.016821 -.8856603 seas27 | -.4322563 .0070813 -61.04 0.000 -.4461355 -.4183771 seas28 | -.6774623 .0857221 -7.90 0.000 -.8454745 -.50945 _Iarea_id_2 | -.2096021 .0413192 -5.07 0.000 -.2905864 -.1286179 _Iarea_id_3 | -.1300038 .0795534 -1.63 0.102 -.2859257 .025918 _Iarea_id_4 | -.5372848 .0504428 -10.65 0.000 -.6361508 -.4384188 _Iarea_id_5 | -.3899203 .0966815 -4.03 0.000 -.5794126 -.200428 _Iarea_id_8 | .1930667 .0470037 4.11 0.000 .1009412 .2851923 _Iarea_id_9 | -.3674913 .1021207 -3.60 0.000 -.5676441 -.1673385 _Iarea_id_10 | .3620605 .0506986 7.14 0.000 .2626931 .461428 _Iarea_id_11 | -.4683294 .0132447 -35.36 0.000 -.4942885 -.4423703 _Iarea_id_12 | .0138926 .0845386 0.16 0.869 -.1517999 .1795852 _Iarea_id_13 | .228205 .1535275 1.49 0.137 -.0727035 .5291134 _Iarea_id_14 | -.5377581 .2123127 -2.53 0.011 -.9538833 -.1216329 _Iarea_id_15 | -.0600485 .043904 -1.37 0.171 -.1460987 .0260018 _Iarea_id_16 | -.5609251 .2243645 -2.50 0.012 -1.000671 -.1211789 _Iarea_id_17 | .9593134 .0226126 42.42 0.000 .9149935 1.003633 _Iarea_id_18 | .1017676 .0931264 1.09 0.274 -.0807568 .284292 _Iarea_id_19 | .5605727 .0519852 10.78 0.000 .4586837 .6624618 _Iarea_id_20 | -.2249729 .0630812 -3.57 0.000 -.3486099 -.101336 _Iarea_id_21 | -.3760292 .1039349 -3.62 0.000 -.579738 -.1723205 _Iarea_id_22 | .3818931 .0586174 6.52 0.000 .2670051 .4967812 _Iarea_id_23 | .3191119 .1203814 2.65 0.008 .0831686 .5550552 _Iarea_id_24 | .2675021 .1283139 2.08 0.037 .0160114 .5189928 _Iarea_id_25 | .5991608 .1080643 5.54 0.000 .3873586 .810963 _Iarea_id_26 | .3037535 .0783552 3.88 0.000 .1501801 .4573268 _Iarea_id_28 | .0311152 .0631057 0.49 0.622 -.0925697 .1548002 _Iarea_id_29 | .5534153 .0259215 21.35 0.000 .50261 .6042205 _Iarea_id_30 | -.5030716 .2516861 -2.00 0.046 -.9963672 -.0097759 _Iarea_id_31 | .1892017 .0571685 3.31 0.001 .0771534 .3012499 _Iyear_1985 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_1986 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_1987 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_1988 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_1989 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_1990 | 2.939315 .408961 7.19 0.000 2.137766 3.740864 _Iyear_1991 | 2.720332 .4350616 6.25 0.000 1.867627 3.573037 _Iyear_1992 | 2.116941 .4553144 4.65 0.000 1.224541 3.009341 _Iyear_1993 | 1.747347 .3441581 5.08 0.000 1.072809 2.421884 _Iyear_1994 | 1.312562 .2945653 4.46 0.000 .7352252 1.8899 _Iyear_1995 | 1.053967 .1951266 5.40 0.000 .6715262 1.436408 _Iyear_1996 | .7444035 .2047752 3.64 0.000 .3430514 1.145756 _Iyear_1997 | .3507049 .2237053 1.57 0.117 -.0877495 .7891592 _Iyear_1998 | .4921384 .1873699 2.63 0.009 .1249001 .8593767 _Iyear_1999 | .1945749 .1484013 1.31 0.190 -.0962863 .4854362 _Iyear_2000 | .6296505 .215989 2.92 0.004 .2063199 1.052981 _Iyear_2001 | 1.006243 .1973179 5.10 0.000 .6195072 1.392979 _Iyear_2002 | .9365043 .3100039 3.02 0.003 .3289078 1.544101 _Iyear_2003 | .0615858 .3201983 0.19 0.847 -.5659914 .6891629 _Iyear_2004 | .2698109 .3224973 0.84 0.403 -.3622722 .901894 _Iyear_2005 | .3819406 .2725363 1.40 0.161 -.1522208 .9161019 _Iyear_2006 | .9134018 .2338296 3.91 0.000 .4551041 1.371699 _Iyear_2007 | .2815901 .2323237 1.21 0.225 -.1737561 .7369362 _Iyear_2008 | .5240692 .408424 1.28 0.199 -.2764271 1.324565 _Iyear_2009 | 1.358498 .6102248 2.23 0.026 .16248 2.554517 _Iyear_2010 | .7826814 .622888 1.26 0.209 -.4381566 2.00352 _Iyear_2011 | 1.425892 .5601581 2.55 0.011 .3280025 2.523782 _Iyear_2012 | 1.279525 .4551025 2.81 0.005 .3875408 2.17151 _Iyear_2013 | .8839509 .4067058 2.17 0.030 .0868223 1.68108 _Iyear_2014 | .4002565 .2435677 1.64 0.100 -.0771274 .8776403 _Iyear_2015 | .4738929 .1346392 3.52 0.000 .210005 .7377809 _Iyear_2016 | .62998 .1242736 5.07 0.000 .3864082 .8735518 _Iyear_2017 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_2018 | 0 (omitted) _cons | 2.673842 .7204071 3.71 0.000 1.26187 4.085814 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Instrumented: ur Instruments: L.pic epi seas1 seas2 seas3 seas4 seas5 seas6 seas7 seas8 seas9 seas10 seas11 seas12 seas13 seas14 seas15 seas16 seas17 seas18 seas19 seas20 seas21 seas22 seas23 seas24 seas25 seas26 seas27 seas28 _Iarea_id_2 _Iarea_id_3 _Iarea_id_4 _Iarea_id_5 _Iarea_id_8 _Iarea_id_9 _Iarea_id_10 _Iarea_id_11 _Iarea_id_12 _Iarea_id_13 _Iarea_id_14 _Iarea_id_15 _Iarea_id_16 _Iarea_id_17 _Iarea_id_18 _Iarea_id_19 _Iarea_id_20 _Iarea_id_21 _Iarea_id_22 _Iarea_id_23 _Iarea_id_24 _Iarea_id_25 _Iarea_id_26 _Iarea_id_28 _Iarea_id_29 _Iarea_id_30 _Iarea_id_31 _Iyear_1990 _Iyear_1991 _Iyear_1992 _Iyear_1993 _Iyear_1994 _Iyear_1995 _Iyear_1996 _Iyear_1997 _Iyear_1998 _Iyear_1999 _Iyear_2000 _Iyear_2001 _Iyear_2002 _Iyear_2003 _Iyear_2004 _Iyear_2005 _Iyear_2006 _Iyear_2007 _Iyear_2008 _Iyear_2009 _Iyear_2010 _Iyear_2011 _Iyear_2012 _Iyear_2013 _Iyear_2014 _Iyear_2015 _Iyear_2016 drdef _IareXdrde_2 _IareXdrde_3 _IareXdrde_4 _IareXdrde_5 _IareXdrde_8 _IareXdrde_9 _IareXdrde_10 _IareXdrde_11 _IareXdrde_12 _IareXdrde_13 _IareXdrde_14 _IareXdrde_15 _IareXdrde_16 _IareXdrde_17 _IareXdrde_18 _IareXdrde_19 _IareXdrde_20 _IareXdrde_21 _IareXdrde_22 _IareXdrde_23 _IareXdrde_24 _IareXdrde_25 _IareXdrde_26 _IareXdrde_28 _IareXdrde_29 _IareXdrde_30 _IareXdrde_31 . xi: ivregress 2sls pic (ur = i.area_id*l(0/4).drdef) l.pic epi seas1-seas28 i.area_id i.year if year<2018, vce(cl area_id) l ambiguous abbreviation r(111); . g d2yrdef=50*(ln(rdef)-ln(l4.rdef)) (112 missing values generated) . xi: ivregress 2sls pic (ur = i.area_id*d2yrdef) l.pic epi seas1-seas28 i.area_id i.year if year<2018, vce(cl area_id) i.area_id _Iarea_id_1-31 (naturally coded; _Iarea_id_1 omitted) i.area~d*d2yr~f _IareXd2yr_# (coded as above) i.year _Iyear_1984-2018 (naturally coded; _Iyear_1984 omitted) note: _Iyear_1985 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_1986 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_1987 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_1988 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_1989 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_2017 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_2018 omitted because of collinearity Instrumental variables (2SLS) regression Number of obs = 1525 Wald chi2(85) =87609.81 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 R-squared = 0.4826 Root MSE = 1.0423 (Std. Err. adjusted for 28 clusters in area_id) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Robust pic | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- ur | -.5023601 .1060039 -4.74 0.000 -.7101241 -.2945962 | pic | L1. | .0780644 .0331307 2.36 0.018 .0131294 .1429994 | epi | .2155993 .139839 1.54 0.123 -.0584801 .4896786 seas1 | -.4072802 .061599 -6.61 0.000 -.5280121 -.2865484 seas2 | -.9163833 .0571298 -16.04 0.000 -1.028356 -.8044109 seas3 | -.9415242 .0495635 -19.00 0.000 -1.038667 -.8443816 seas4 | .0153197 .0407248 0.38 0.707 -.0644994 .0951387 seas5 | -.7522399 .0256538 -29.32 0.000 -.8025203 -.7019594 seas6 | -.0745048 .0523877 -1.42 0.155 -.1771829 .0281733 seas7 | -.1223527 .0286552 -4.27 0.000 -.1785159 -.0661896 seas8 | -.5225037 .0211332 -24.72 0.000 -.563924 -.4810834 seas9 | .3723641 .0332857 11.19 0.000 .3071253 .4376029 seas10 | -.5519321 .0495857 -11.13 0.000 -.6491183 -.4547459 seas11 | -.4114824 .0188741 -21.80 0.000 -.448475 -.3744897 seas12 | -.700437 .0418679 -16.73 0.000 -.7824967 -.6183774 seas13 | -1.025446 .03183 -32.22 0.000 -1.087832 -.9630605 seas14 | -.4401836 .0110504 -39.83 0.000 -.4618419 -.4185253 seas15 | -1.458323 .0579404 -25.17 0.000 -1.571884 -1.344762 seas16 | -1.517302 .0439625 -34.51 0.000 -1.603467 -1.431137 seas17 | -1.095958 .0398914 -27.47 0.000 -1.174143 -1.017772 seas18 | -.3740726 .0171704 -21.79 0.000 -.4077261 -.3404192 seas19 | -.4559546 .0134899 -33.80 0.000 -.4823944 -.4295148 seas20 | -1.300615 .0383888 -33.88 0.000 -1.375856 -1.225374 seas21 | -1.611537 .0614539 -26.22 0.000 -1.731985 -1.49109 seas22 | -.779822 .0364492 -21.39 0.000 -.8512611 -.708383 seas23 | -.8811984 .0288581 -30.54 0.000 -.9377592 -.8246376 seas24 | -.6877545 .018698 -36.78 0.000 -.724402 -.6511071 seas25 | -.1554216 .0137273 -11.32 0.000 -.1823266 -.1285167 seas26 | -.9152719 .026687 -34.30 0.000 -.9675774 -.8629665 seas27 | -.4307464 .0065931 -65.33 0.000 -.4436687 -.4178242 seas28 | -.7940088 .0765835 -10.37 0.000 -.9441097 -.6439078 _Iarea_id_2 | -.2579201 .0322147 -8.01 0.000 -.3210598 -.1947805 _Iarea_id_3 | -.2398551 .064081 -3.74 0.000 -.3654515 -.1142587 _Iarea_id_4 | -.6061348 .0412138 -14.71 0.000 -.6869125 -.5253572 _Iarea_id_5 | -.5238118 .0781035 -6.71 0.000 -.6768919 -.3707317 _Iarea_id_8 | .2578034 .0410574 6.28 0.000 .1773323 .3382745 _Iarea_id_9 | -.5099454 .0883575 -5.77 0.000 -.6831228 -.336768 _Iarea_id_10 | .4324617 .044137 9.80 0.000 .3459547 .5189688 _Iarea_id_11 | -.4853253 .0121229 -40.03 0.000 -.5090857 -.4615649 _Iarea_id_12 | .1270181 .0779901 1.63 0.103 -.0258396 .2798759 _Iarea_id_13 | .4378781 .1380887 3.17 0.002 .1672292 .7085269 _Iarea_id_14 | -.8343813 .1802333 -4.63 0.000 -1.187632 -.4811305 _Iarea_id_15 | -.1126557 .0341652 -3.30 0.001 -.1796182 -.0456932 _Iarea_id_16 | -.8730293 .1910809 -4.57 0.000 -1.247541 -.4985176 _Iarea_id_17 | .9672193 .0237612 40.71 0.000 .9206482 1.01379 _Iarea_id_18 | -.0202931 .0730012 -0.28 0.781 -.1633729 .1227867 _Iarea_id_19 | .4975082 .0472844 10.52 0.000 .4048326 .5901838 _Iarea_id_20 | -.3108573 .0512754 -6.06 0.000 -.4113553 -.2103593 _Iarea_id_21 | -.5202229 .0846389 -6.15 0.000 -.6861121 -.3543338 _Iarea_id_22 | .3059378 .0457233 6.69 0.000 .2163217 .3955539 _Iarea_id_23 | .1534997 .0972563 1.58 0.114 -.0371191 .3441185 _Iarea_id_24 | .0899873 .1098004 0.82 0.412 -.1252175 .3051921 _Iarea_id_25 | .7436778 .0988923 7.52 0.000 .5498524 .9375032 _Iarea_id_26 | .1952708 .0657912 2.97 0.003 .0663223 .3242192 _Iarea_id_28 | -.0531879 .0544666 -0.98 0.329 -.1599405 .0535646 _Iarea_id_29 | .5197508 .020766 25.03 0.000 .4790501 .5604515 _Iarea_id_30 | -.8530355 .2164033 -3.94 0.000 -1.277178 -.4288929 _Iarea_id_31 | .2647888 .0534371 4.96 0.000 .1600539 .3695237 _Iyear_1985 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_1986 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_1987 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_1988 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_1989 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_1990 | 3.190697 .4101939 7.78 0.000 2.386732 3.994662 _Iyear_1991 | 3.181331 .3616583 8.80 0.000 2.472494 3.890169 _Iyear_1992 | 2.642427 .3946836 6.70 0.000 1.868862 3.415993 _Iyear_1993 | 2.169037 .3073805 7.06 0.000 1.566582 2.771492 _Iyear_1994 | 1.593229 .2927696 5.44 0.000 1.019411 2.167047 _Iyear_1995 | 1.239981 .1971566 6.29 0.000 .8535609 1.626401 _Iyear_1996 | .8886838 .2087727 4.26 0.000 .4794968 1.297871 _Iyear_1997 | .4117668 .2163059 1.90 0.057 -.0121851 .8357186 _Iyear_1998 | .4704268 .187617 2.51 0.012 .1027043 .8381494 _Iyear_1999 | .1269413 .1498754 0.85 0.397 -.166809 .4206916 _Iyear_2000 | .5814717 .2114548 2.75 0.006 .167028 .9959155 _Iyear_2001 | 1.091532 .1909994 5.71 0.000 .7171798 1.465884 _Iyear_2002 | 1.211768 .2892441 4.19 0.000 .6448601 1.778676 _Iyear_2003 | .3349483 .2960765 1.13 0.258 -.2453509 .9152476 _Iyear_2004 | .4587395 .3132233 1.46 0.143 -.1551668 1.072646 _Iyear_2005 | .5216917 .265907 1.96 0.050 .0005235 1.04286 _Iyear_2006 | .9856828 .2361779 4.17 0.000 .5227827 1.448583 _Iyear_2007 | .3602484 .2264249 1.59 0.112 -.0835363 .804033 _Iyear_2008 | .7928417 .4049928 1.96 0.050 -.0009296 1.586613 _Iyear_2009 | 2.15393 .4784881 4.50 0.000 1.216111 3.09175 _Iyear_2010 | 1.608005 .5311942 3.03 0.002 .5668833 2.649126 _Iyear_2011 | 2.145102 .4871715 4.40 0.000 1.190264 3.099941 _Iyear_2012 | 1.871197 .4104328 4.56 0.000 1.066764 2.675631 _Iyear_2013 | 1.357631 .3694701 3.67 0.000 .6334827 2.081779 _Iyear_2014 | .6845619 .2278385 3.00 0.003 .2380067 1.131117 _Iyear_2015 | .5990055 .1521466 3.94 0.000 .3008036 .8972073 _Iyear_2016 | .7099892 .1202456 5.90 0.000 .4743122 .9456661 _Iyear_2017 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_2018 | 0 (omitted) _cons | 3.570557 .7073199 5.05 0.000 2.184236 4.956879 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Instrumented: ur Instruments: L.pic epi seas1 seas2 seas3 seas4 seas5 seas6 seas7 seas8 seas9 seas10 seas11 seas12 seas13 seas14 seas15 seas16 seas17 seas18 seas19 seas20 seas21 seas22 seas23 seas24 seas25 seas26 seas27 seas28 _Iarea_id_2 _Iarea_id_3 _Iarea_id_4 _Iarea_id_5 _Iarea_id_8 _Iarea_id_9 _Iarea_id_10 _Iarea_id_11 _Iarea_id_12 _Iarea_id_13 _Iarea_id_14 _Iarea_id_15 _Iarea_id_16 _Iarea_id_17 _Iarea_id_18 _Iarea_id_19 _Iarea_id_20 _Iarea_id_21 _Iarea_id_22 _Iarea_id_23 _Iarea_id_24 _Iarea_id_25 _Iarea_id_26 _Iarea_id_28 _Iarea_id_29 _Iarea_id_30 _Iarea_id_31 _Iyear_1990 _Iyear_1991 _Iyear_1992 _Iyear_1993 _Iyear_1994 _Iyear_1995 _Iyear_1996 _Iyear_1997 _Iyear_1998 _Iyear_1999 _Iyear_2000 _Iyear_2001 _Iyear_2002 _Iyear_2003 _Iyear_2004 _Iyear_2005 _Iyear_2006 _Iyear_2007 _Iyear_2008 _Iyear_2009 _Iyear_2010 _Iyear_2011 _Iyear_2012 _Iyear_2013 _Iyear_2014 _Iyear_2015 _Iyear_2016 d2yrdef _IareXd2yr_2 _IareXd2yr_3 _IareXd2yr_4 _IareXd2yr_5 _IareXd2yr_8 _IareXd2yr_9 _IareXd2yr_10 _IareXd2yr_11 _IareXd2yr_12 _IareXd2yr_13 _IareXd2yr_14 _IareXd2yr_15 _IareXd2yr_16 _IareXd2yr_17 _IareXd2yr_18 _IareXd2yr_19 _IareXd2yr_20 _IareXd2yr_21 _IareXd2yr_22 _IareXd2yr_23 _IareXd2yr_24 _IareXd2yr_25 _IareXd2yr_26 _IareXd2yr_28 _IareXd2yr_29 _IareXd2yr_30 _IareXd2yr_31 . estat firststage First-stage regression summary statistics -------------------------------------------------------------------------- | Adjusted Partial Robust Variable | R-sq. R-sq. R-sq. F(5,27) Prob > F -------------+------------------------------------------------------------ ur | 0.8447 0.8324 0.1452 2476.74 0.0000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- (F statistic adjusted for 28 clusters in area_id) . xi: regress ur i.area_id*d2yrdef l.pic epi seas1-seas28 i.area_id i.year if year<2018, vce(cl area_id) i.area_id _Iarea_id_1-31 (naturally coded; _Iarea_id_1 omitted) i.area~d*d2yr~f _IareXd2yr_# (coded as above) i.year _Iyear_1984-2018 (naturally coded; _Iyear_1984 omitted) note: _Iarea_id_2 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iarea_id_3 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iarea_id_4 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iarea_id_5 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iarea_id_8 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iarea_id_9 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iarea_id_10 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iarea_id_11 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iarea_id_12 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iarea_id_13 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iarea_id_14 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iarea_id_15 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iarea_id_16 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iarea_id_17 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iarea_id_18 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iarea_id_19 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iarea_id_20 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iarea_id_21 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iarea_id_22 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iarea_id_23 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iarea_id_24 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iarea_id_25 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iarea_id_26 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iarea_id_28 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iarea_id_29 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iarea_id_30 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iarea_id_31 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_1985 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_1986 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_1987 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_1988 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_1989 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_2003 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_2018 omitted because of collinearity Linear regression Number of obs = 1525 F( 26, 27) = . Prob > F = . R-squared = 0.8447 Root MSE = .7632 (Std. Err. adjusted for 28 clusters in area_id) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | Robust ur | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] --------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- _Iarea_id_2 | -.2826641 .0351694 -8.04 0.000 -.3548258 -.2105024 _Iarea_id_3 | -.6704223 .0295924 -22.66 0.000 -.7311409 -.6097038 _Iarea_id_4 | -.4360384 .0162508 -26.83 0.000 -.4693823 -.4026945 _Iarea_id_5 | -.8097197 .0349761 -23.15 0.000 -.8814848 -.7379547 _Iarea_id_8 | .2885041 .0167509 17.22 0.000 .2541341 .3228742 _Iarea_id_9 | -.8651533 .0028473 -303.85 0.000 -.8709956 -.8593111 _Iarea_id_10 | .4228744 .0026793 157.83 0.000 .4173768 .428372 _Iarea_id_11 | -.1043215 .0030869 -33.79 0.000 -.1106554 -.0979877 _Iarea_id_12 | .6596534 .0234892 28.08 0.000 .6114575 .7078493 _Iarea_id_13 | 1.167703 .0246819 47.31 0.000 1.11706 1.218346 _Iarea_id_14 | -1.782249 .0207129 -86.05 0.000 -1.824748 -1.739749 _Iarea_id_15 | -.3264927 .0364967 -8.95 0.000 -.4013778 -.2516076 _Iarea_id_16 | -1.818671 .0212229 -85.69 0.000 -1.862217 -1.775125 _Iarea_id_17 | .0883915 .0300612 2.94 0.007 .0267109 .1500721 _Iarea_id_18 | -.6769428 .0550627 -12.29 0.000 -.789922 -.5639636 _Iarea_id_19 | -.4349069 .0491709 -8.84 0.000 -.5357973 -.3340166 _Iarea_id_20 | -.4687342 .023159 -20.24 0.000 -.5162526 -.4212159 _Iarea_id_21 | -.8631028 .0319925 -26.98 0.000 -.9287459 -.7974597 _Iarea_id_22 | -.4278347 .0378157 -11.31 0.000 -.5054261 -.3502433 _Iarea_id_23 | -.8811097 .0727356 -12.11 0.000 -1.030351 -.7318685 _Iarea_id_24 | -1.090002 .0120067 -90.78 0.000 -1.114638 -1.065366 _Iarea_id_25 | .8796259 .029168 30.16 0.000 .8197782 .9394737 _Iarea_id_26 | -.6732789 .0133872 -50.29 0.000 -.7007471 -.6458106 _Iarea_id_28 | -.5441906 .0135192 -40.25 0.000 -.5719299 -.5164514 _Iarea_id_29 | -.1939656 .0159078 -12.19 0.000 -.2266058 -.1613255 _Iarea_id_30 | -2.054932 .0129088 -159.19 0.000 -2.081419 -2.028445 _Iarea_id_31 | .4435581 .0199875 22.19 0.000 .402547 .4845691 d2yrdef | -.0309964 .0197705 -1.57 0.129 -.0715621 .0095692 _IareXd2yr_2 | .103749 .0011526 90.02 0.000 .1013842 .1061139 _IareXd2yr_3 | .1599054 .0009036 176.96 0.000 .1580513 .1617594 _IareXd2yr_4 | .1257251 .0008647 145.40 0.000 .1239509 .1274994 _IareXd2yr_5 | .1723495 .0011017 156.44 0.000 .170089 .17461 _IareXd2yr_8 | .2330673 .0036643 63.60 0.000 .2255487 .2405859 _IareXd2yr_9 | .0847486 .0041273 20.53 0.000 .0762801 .0932171 _IareXd2yr_10 | -.0228971 .0043439 -5.27 0.000 -.0318101 -.0139841 _IareXd2yr_11 | -.0005998 .0034314 -0.17 0.863 -.0076405 .0064408 _IareXd2yr_12 | .0794934 .0014582 54.52 0.000 .0765014 .0824853 _IareXd2yr_13 | .2540245 .0014061 180.66 0.000 .2511394 .2569096 _IareXd2yr_14 | .1688719 .0009101 185.55 0.000 .1670044 .1707393 _IareXd2yr_15 | .1581559 .0035064 45.11 0.000 .1509615 .1653504 _IareXd2yr_16 | -.0022114 .0054683 -0.40 0.689 -.0134314 .0090085 _IareXd2yr_17 | -.0377109 .0032939 -11.45 0.000 -.0444695 -.0309524 _IareXd2yr_18 | .061623 .0045256 13.62 0.000 .0523372 .0709087 _IareXd2yr_19 | .1207688 .00816 14.80 0.000 .1040258 .1375118 _IareXd2yr_20 | -.0504547 .0042099 -11.98 0.000 -.0590928 -.0418166 _IareXd2yr_21 | .136832 .0018446 74.18 0.000 .1330471 .1406169 _IareXd2yr_22 | .0595966 .0020288 29.38 0.000 .055434 .0637593 _IareXd2yr_23 | .0417165 .0099146 4.21 0.000 .0213734 .0620597 _IareXd2yr_24 | .1431457 .0067119 21.33 0.000 .129374 .1569175 _IareXd2yr_25 | -.0054997 .0066362 -0.83 0.415 -.019116 .0081166 _IareXd2yr_26 | .1277472 .0023016 55.50 0.000 .1230246 .1324697 _IareXd2yr_28 | .1257734 .002223 56.58 0.000 .1212122 .1303346 _IareXd2yr_29 | .0197046 .0077209 2.55 0.017 .0038626 .0355467 _IareXd2yr_30 | .0136775 .0052073 2.63 0.014 .002993 .0243621 _IareXd2yr_31 | .0538023 .0035936 14.97 0.000 .0464287 .0611758 | pic | L1. | -.1781437 .0397004 -4.49 0.000 -.2596023 -.0966852 | epi | -.138949 .1622226 -0.86 0.399 -.4718022 .1939042 seas1 | -.5813977 .0013511 -430.33 0.000 -.5841699 -.5786256 seas2 | -.4929463 .0194314 -25.37 0.000 -.5328162 -.4530764 seas3 | -.4043167 .0224687 -17.99 0.000 -.4504187 -.3582146 seas4 | -.3888694 .0115101 -33.79 0.000 -.4124862 -.3652526 seas5 | -.1688725 .0187632 -9.00 0.000 -.2073715 -.1303736 seas6 | -.4906032 .0077111 -63.62 0.000 -.5064251 -.4747813 seas7 | -.2694672 .0029136 -92.49 0.000 -.2754455 -.263489 seas8 | -.1762546 .009773 -18.03 0.000 -.1963072 -.1562021 seas9 | -.3004349 .0210017 -14.31 0.000 -.3435267 -.257343 seas10 | -.4592337 .005915 -77.64 0.000 -.4713703 -.4470971 seas11 | -.1491082 .0082655 -18.04 0.000 -.1660675 -.1321488 seas12 | -.3642582 .0124377 -29.29 0.000 -.3897782 -.3387383 seas13 | -.1928951 .0261177 -7.39 0.000 -.2464843 -.139306 seas14 | -.0751101 .0083201 -9.03 0.000 -.0921815 -.0580386 seas15 | .4435244 .0534763 8.29 0.000 .3338 .5532488 seas16 | .1865501 .0538062 3.47 0.002 .076149 .2969513 seas17 | .2550311 .0401933 6.35 0.000 .1725613 .3375009 seas18 | -.1488695 .0073574 -20.23 0.000 -.1639657 -.1337734 seas19 | -.0250215 .0152888 -1.64 0.113 -.0563916 .0063486 seas20 | .2002477 .0449494 4.45 0.000 .1080193 .2924762 seas21 | .3873429 .0681643 5.68 0.000 .2474813 .5272045 seas22 | -.2623665 .0238383 -11.01 0.000 -.3112787 -.2134543 seas23 | .2001935 .0314656 6.36 0.000 .1356314 .2647555 seas24 | .0759796 .0244316 3.11 0.004 .02585 .1261091 seas25 | -.120324 .0027483 -43.78 0.000 -.125963 -.114685 seas26 | .1777359 .0301171 5.90 0.000 .1159407 .2395312 seas27 | -.0017029 .0089973 -0.19 0.851 -.0201637 .016758 seas28 | -.6981346 .0129157 -54.05 0.000 -.7246356 -.6716337 _Iarea_id_2 | 0 (omitted) _Iarea_id_3 | 0 (omitted) _Iarea_id_4 | 0 (omitted) _Iarea_id_5 | 0 (omitted) _Iarea_id_8 | 0 (omitted) _Iarea_id_9 | 0 (omitted) _Iarea_id_10 | 0 (omitted) _Iarea_id_11 | 0 (omitted) _Iarea_id_12 | 0 (omitted) _Iarea_id_13 | 0 (omitted) _Iarea_id_14 | 0 (omitted) _Iarea_id_15 | 0 (omitted) _Iarea_id_16 | 0 (omitted) _Iarea_id_17 | 0 (omitted) _Iarea_id_18 | 0 (omitted) _Iarea_id_19 | 0 (omitted) _Iarea_id_20 | 0 (omitted) _Iarea_id_21 | 0 (omitted) _Iarea_id_22 | 0 (omitted) _Iarea_id_23 | 0 (omitted) _Iarea_id_24 | 0 (omitted) _Iarea_id_25 | 0 (omitted) _Iarea_id_26 | 0 (omitted) _Iarea_id_28 | 0 (omitted) _Iarea_id_29 | 0 (omitted) _Iarea_id_30 | 0 (omitted) _Iarea_id_31 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_1985 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_1986 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_1987 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_1988 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_1989 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_1990 | .2224721 .3255095 0.68 0.500 -.4454183 .8903625 _Iyear_1991 | 1.366833 .3028035 4.51 0.000 .7455315 1.988135 _Iyear_1992 | 1.880324 .2749141 6.84 0.000 1.316246 2.444401 _Iyear_1993 | 1.461783 .3508301 4.17 0.000 .741939 2.181627 _Iyear_1994 | .6729815 .357675 1.88 0.071 -.0609069 1.40687 _Iyear_1995 | .1239657 .3291996 0.38 0.709 -.5514961 .7994274 _Iyear_1996 | -.1950929 .3127677 -0.62 0.538 -.8368392 .4466533 _Iyear_1997 | -.7662172 .2728631 -2.81 0.009 -1.326086 -.2063484 _Iyear_1998 | -1.244737 .2367108 -5.26 0.000 -1.730427 -.7590464 _Iyear_1999 | -1.576182 .2145177 -7.35 0.000 -2.016336 -1.136029 _Iyear_2000 | -1.501308 .247657 -6.06 0.000 -2.009458 -.9931578 _Iyear_2001 | -.7978756 .1667066 -4.79 0.000 -1.139929 -.4558219 _Iyear_2002 | .1186821 .0944421 1.26 0.220 -.075097 .3124613 _Iyear_2003 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_2004 | -.4259952 .1228319 -3.47 0.002 -.6780254 -.1739649 _Iyear_2005 | -.5347359 .2014636 -2.65 0.013 -.9481051 -.1213667 _Iyear_2006 | -.8412946 .2086685 -4.03 0.000 -1.269447 -.4131421 _Iyear_2007 | -.8222072 .2465552 -3.33 0.002 -1.328097 -.3163176 _Iyear_2008 | .2283374 .3549565 0.64 0.525 -.4999733 .956648 _Iyear_2009 | 3.158368 .3132758 10.08 0.000 2.515579 3.801157 _Iyear_2010 | 3.463219 .3143512 11.02 0.000 2.818224 4.108215 _Iyear_2011 | 3.053652 .4179739 7.31 0.000 2.196041 3.911264 _Iyear_2012 | 2.410179 .3839599 6.28 0.000 1.622359 3.198 _Iyear_2013 | 1.872223 .3635492 5.15 0.000 1.126281 2.618164 _Iyear_2014 | .796441 .3400767 2.34 0.027 .0986614 1.494221 _Iyear_2015 | -.2839408 .2510916 -1.13 0.268 -.7991383 .2312567 _Iyear_2016 | -.6734662 .2067204 -3.26 0.003 -1.097621 -.2493109 _Iyear_2017 | -1.17617 .1999675 -5.88 0.000 -1.586469 -.7658701 _Iyear_2018 | 0 (omitted) _cons | 6.564933 .3481435 18.86 0.000 5.850602 7.279265 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- . xi: ivregress 2sls pic (ur = i.area_id*d2yrdef) l.pic epi seas1-seas28 i.area_id i.year if year<2018, vce(cl area_id) i.area_id _Iarea_id_1-31 (naturally coded; _Iarea_id_1 omitted) i.area~d*d2yr~f _IareXd2yr_# (coded as above) i.year _Iyear_1984-2018 (naturally coded; _Iyear_1984 omitted) note: _Iyear_1985 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_1986 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_1987 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_1988 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_1989 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_2017 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_2018 omitted because of collinearity Instrumental variables (2SLS) regression Number of obs = 1525 Wald chi2(85) =87609.81 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 R-squared = 0.4826 Root MSE = 1.0423 (Std. Err. adjusted for 28 clusters in area_id) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Robust pic | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- ur | -.5023601 .1060039 -4.74 0.000 -.7101241 -.2945962 | pic | L1. | .0780644 .0331307 2.36 0.018 .0131294 .1429994 | epi | .2155993 .139839 1.54 0.123 -.0584801 .4896786 seas1 | -.4072802 .061599 -6.61 0.000 -.5280121 -.2865484 seas2 | -.9163833 .0571298 -16.04 0.000 -1.028356 -.8044109 seas3 | -.9415242 .0495635 -19.00 0.000 -1.038667 -.8443816 seas4 | .0153197 .0407248 0.38 0.707 -.0644994 .0951387 seas5 | -.7522399 .0256538 -29.32 0.000 -.8025203 -.7019594 seas6 | -.0745048 .0523877 -1.42 0.155 -.1771829 .0281733 seas7 | -.1223527 .0286552 -4.27 0.000 -.1785159 -.0661896 seas8 | -.5225037 .0211332 -24.72 0.000 -.563924 -.4810834 seas9 | .3723641 .0332857 11.19 0.000 .3071253 .4376029 seas10 | -.5519321 .0495857 -11.13 0.000 -.6491183 -.4547459 seas11 | -.4114824 .0188741 -21.80 0.000 -.448475 -.3744897 seas12 | -.700437 .0418679 -16.73 0.000 -.7824967 -.6183774 seas13 | -1.025446 .03183 -32.22 0.000 -1.087832 -.9630605 seas14 | -.4401836 .0110504 -39.83 0.000 -.4618419 -.4185253 seas15 | -1.458323 .0579404 -25.17 0.000 -1.571884 -1.344762 seas16 | -1.517302 .0439625 -34.51 0.000 -1.603467 -1.431137 seas17 | -1.095958 .0398914 -27.47 0.000 -1.174143 -1.017772 seas18 | -.3740726 .0171704 -21.79 0.000 -.4077261 -.3404192 seas19 | -.4559546 .0134899 -33.80 0.000 -.4823944 -.4295148 seas20 | -1.300615 .0383888 -33.88 0.000 -1.375856 -1.225374 seas21 | -1.611537 .0614539 -26.22 0.000 -1.731985 -1.49109 seas22 | -.779822 .0364492 -21.39 0.000 -.8512611 -.708383 seas23 | -.8811984 .0288581 -30.54 0.000 -.9377592 -.8246376 seas24 | -.6877545 .018698 -36.78 0.000 -.724402 -.6511071 seas25 | -.1554216 .0137273 -11.32 0.000 -.1823266 -.1285167 seas26 | -.9152719 .026687 -34.30 0.000 -.9675774 -.8629665 seas27 | -.4307464 .0065931 -65.33 0.000 -.4436687 -.4178242 seas28 | -.7940088 .0765835 -10.37 0.000 -.9441097 -.6439078 _Iarea_id_2 | -.2579201 .0322147 -8.01 0.000 -.3210598 -.1947805 _Iarea_id_3 | -.2398551 .064081 -3.74 0.000 -.3654515 -.1142587 _Iarea_id_4 | -.6061348 .0412138 -14.71 0.000 -.6869125 -.5253572 _Iarea_id_5 | -.5238118 .0781035 -6.71 0.000 -.6768919 -.3707317 _Iarea_id_8 | .2578034 .0410574 6.28 0.000 .1773323 .3382745 _Iarea_id_9 | -.5099454 .0883575 -5.77 0.000 -.6831228 -.336768 _Iarea_id_10 | .4324617 .044137 9.80 0.000 .3459547 .5189688 _Iarea_id_11 | -.4853253 .0121229 -40.03 0.000 -.5090857 -.4615649 _Iarea_id_12 | .1270181 .0779901 1.63 0.103 -.0258396 .2798759 _Iarea_id_13 | .4378781 .1380887 3.17 0.002 .1672292 .7085269 _Iarea_id_14 | -.8343813 .1802333 -4.63 0.000 -1.187632 -.4811305 _Iarea_id_15 | -.1126557 .0341652 -3.30 0.001 -.1796182 -.0456932 _Iarea_id_16 | -.8730293 .1910809 -4.57 0.000 -1.247541 -.4985176 _Iarea_id_17 | .9672193 .0237612 40.71 0.000 .9206482 1.01379 _Iarea_id_18 | -.0202931 .0730012 -0.28 0.781 -.1633729 .1227867 _Iarea_id_19 | .4975082 .0472844 10.52 0.000 .4048326 .5901838 _Iarea_id_20 | -.3108573 .0512754 -6.06 0.000 -.4113553 -.2103593 _Iarea_id_21 | -.5202229 .0846389 -6.15 0.000 -.6861121 -.3543338 _Iarea_id_22 | .3059378 .0457233 6.69 0.000 .2163217 .3955539 _Iarea_id_23 | .1534997 .0972563 1.58 0.114 -.0371191 .3441185 _Iarea_id_24 | .0899873 .1098004 0.82 0.412 -.1252175 .3051921 _Iarea_id_25 | .7436778 .0988923 7.52 0.000 .5498524 .9375032 _Iarea_id_26 | .1952708 .0657912 2.97 0.003 .0663223 .3242192 _Iarea_id_28 | -.0531879 .0544666 -0.98 0.329 -.1599405 .0535646 _Iarea_id_29 | .5197508 .020766 25.03 0.000 .4790501 .5604515 _Iarea_id_30 | -.8530355 .2164033 -3.94 0.000 -1.277178 -.4288929 _Iarea_id_31 | .2647888 .0534371 4.96 0.000 .1600539 .3695237 _Iyear_1985 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_1986 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_1987 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_1988 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_1989 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_1990 | 3.190697 .4101939 7.78 0.000 2.386732 3.994662 _Iyear_1991 | 3.181331 .3616583 8.80 0.000 2.472494 3.890169 _Iyear_1992 | 2.642427 .3946836 6.70 0.000 1.868862 3.415993 _Iyear_1993 | 2.169037 .3073805 7.06 0.000 1.566582 2.771492 _Iyear_1994 | 1.593229 .2927696 5.44 0.000 1.019411 2.167047 _Iyear_1995 | 1.239981 .1971566 6.29 0.000 .8535609 1.626401 _Iyear_1996 | .8886838 .2087727 4.26 0.000 .4794968 1.297871 _Iyear_1997 | .4117668 .2163059 1.90 0.057 -.0121851 .8357186 _Iyear_1998 | .4704268 .187617 2.51 0.012 .1027043 .8381494 _Iyear_1999 | .1269413 .1498754 0.85 0.397 -.166809 .4206916 _Iyear_2000 | .5814717 .2114548 2.75 0.006 .167028 .9959155 _Iyear_2001 | 1.091532 .1909994 5.71 0.000 .7171798 1.465884 _Iyear_2002 | 1.211768 .2892441 4.19 0.000 .6448601 1.778676 _Iyear_2003 | .3349483 .2960765 1.13 0.258 -.2453509 .9152476 _Iyear_2004 | .4587395 .3132233 1.46 0.143 -.1551668 1.072646 _Iyear_2005 | .5216917 .265907 1.96 0.050 .0005235 1.04286 _Iyear_2006 | .9856828 .2361779 4.17 0.000 .5227827 1.448583 _Iyear_2007 | .3602484 .2264249 1.59 0.112 -.0835363 .804033 _Iyear_2008 | .7928417 .4049928 1.96 0.050 -.0009296 1.586613 _Iyear_2009 | 2.15393 .4784881 4.50 0.000 1.216111 3.09175 _Iyear_2010 | 1.608005 .5311942 3.03 0.002 .5668833 2.649126 _Iyear_2011 | 2.145102 .4871715 4.40 0.000 1.190264 3.099941 _Iyear_2012 | 1.871197 .4104328 4.56 0.000 1.066764 2.675631 _Iyear_2013 | 1.357631 .3694701 3.67 0.000 .6334827 2.081779 _Iyear_2014 | .6845619 .2278385 3.00 0.003 .2380067 1.131117 _Iyear_2015 | .5990055 .1521466 3.94 0.000 .3008036 .8972073 _Iyear_2016 | .7099892 .1202456 5.90 0.000 .4743122 .9456661 _Iyear_2017 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_2018 | 0 (omitted) _cons | 3.570557 .7073199 5.05 0.000 2.184236 4.956879 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Instrumented: ur Instruments: L.pic epi seas1 seas2 seas3 seas4 seas5 seas6 seas7 seas8 seas9 seas10 seas11 seas12 seas13 seas14 seas15 seas16 seas17 seas18 seas19 seas20 seas21 seas22 seas23 seas24 seas25 seas26 seas27 seas28 _Iarea_id_2 _Iarea_id_3 _Iarea_id_4 _Iarea_id_5 _Iarea_id_8 _Iarea_id_9 _Iarea_id_10 _Iarea_id_11 _Iarea_id_12 _Iarea_id_13 _Iarea_id_14 _Iarea_id_15 _Iarea_id_16 _Iarea_id_17 _Iarea_id_18 _Iarea_id_19 _Iarea_id_20 _Iarea_id_21 _Iarea_id_22 _Iarea_id_23 _Iarea_id_24 _Iarea_id_25 _Iarea_id_26 _Iarea_id_28 _Iarea_id_29 _Iarea_id_30 _Iarea_id_31 _Iyear_1990 _Iyear_1991 _Iyear_1992 _Iyear_1993 _Iyear_1994 _Iyear_1995 _Iyear_1996 _Iyear_1997 _Iyear_1998 _Iyear_1999 _Iyear_2000 _Iyear_2001 _Iyear_2002 _Iyear_2003 _Iyear_2004 _Iyear_2005 _Iyear_2006 _Iyear_2007 _Iyear_2008 _Iyear_2009 _Iyear_2010 _Iyear_2011 _Iyear_2012 _Iyear_2013 _Iyear_2014 _Iyear_2015 _Iyear_2016 d2yrdef _IareXd2yr_2 _IareXd2yr_3 _IareXd2yr_4 _IareXd2yr_5 _IareXd2yr_8 _IareXd2yr_9 _IareXd2yr_10 _IareXd2yr_11 _IareXd2yr_12 _IareXd2yr_13 _IareXd2yr_14 _IareXd2yr_15 _IareXd2yr_16 _IareXd2yr_17 _IareXd2yr_18 _IareXd2yr_19 _IareXd2yr_20 _IareXd2yr_21 _IareXd2yr_22 _IareXd2yr_23 _IareXd2yr_24 _IareXd2yr_25 _IareXd2yr_26 _IareXd2yr_28 _IareXd2yr_29 _IareXd2yr_30 _IareXd2yr_31 . xi: ivregress 2sls pic ur l.pic epi seas1-seas28 i.area_id i.year if year<2018, vce(cl area_id) i.area_id _Iarea_id_1-31 (naturally coded; _Iarea_id_1 omitted) i.year _Iyear_1984-2018 (naturally coded; _Iyear_1984 omitted) note: _Iyear_1985 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_1986 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_1987 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_1988 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_1989 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_2017 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_2018 omitted because of collinearity Instrumental variables (2SLS) regression Number of obs = 1525 Wald chi2(85) = 8078.41 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 R-squared = 0.4871 Root MSE = 1.0377 (Std. Err. adjusted for 28 clusters in area_id) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Robust pic | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- ur | -.3793637 .0495206 -7.66 0.000 -.4764222 -.2823052 | pic | L1. | .105313 .0323861 3.25 0.001 .0418374 .1687886 | epi | .2247839 .134973 1.67 0.096 -.0397584 .4893262 seas1 | -.3359218 .0289064 -11.62 0.000 -.3925772 -.2792663 seas2 | -.857919 .0320254 -26.79 0.000 -.9206875 -.7951505 seas3 | -.8941184 .0303704 -29.44 0.000 -.9536434 -.8345935 seas4 | .0651142 .0192651 3.38 0.001 .0273552 .1028732 seas5 | -.7332271 .0196665 -37.28 0.000 -.7717728 -.6946813 seas6 | -.0123268 .0247328 -0.50 0.618 -.0608022 .0361486 seas7 | -.0886422 .0135061 -6.56 0.000 -.1151137 -.0621707 seas8 | -.5024068 .0128143 -39.21 0.000 -.5275223 -.4772912 seas9 | .4119534 .0210301 19.59 0.000 .3707351 .4531717 seas10 | -.4957849 .0238937 -20.75 0.000 -.5426158 -.4489541 seas11 | -.3930547 .0114619 -34.29 0.000 -.4155197 -.3705897 seas12 | -.6565348 .0227226 -28.89 0.000 -.7010703 -.6119992 seas13 | -1.004533 .0259194 -38.76 0.000 -1.055334 -.953732 seas14 | -.4319071 .0086454 -49.96 0.000 -.4488517 -.4149625 seas15 | -1.520255 .0466625 -32.58 0.000 -1.611712 -1.428798 seas16 | -1.547247 .0450744 -34.33 0.000 -1.635591 -1.458903 seas17 | -1.1322 .0371125 -30.51 0.000 -1.204939 -1.059461 seas18 | -.3567913 .0101899 -35.01 0.000 -.3767632 -.3368195 seas19 | -.4542545 .0139009 -32.68 0.000 -.4814998 -.4270092 seas20 | -1.331032 .0378127 -35.20 0.000 -1.405143 -1.25692 seas21 | -1.668249 .0568404 -29.35 0.000 -1.779654 -1.556844 seas22 | -.7503297 .0257912 -29.09 0.000 -.8008795 -.6997799 seas23 | -.9102521 .0252451 -36.06 0.000 -.9597315 -.8607727 seas24 | -.7000006 .019339 -36.20 0.000 -.7379044 -.6620968 seas25 | -.140465 .0070468 -19.93 0.000 -.1542764 -.1266536 seas26 | -.9412593 .0239752 -39.26 0.000 -.9882499 -.8942687 seas27 | -.4318373 .0069098 -62.50 0.000 -.4453803 -.4182943 seas28 | -.709804 .0382679 -18.55 0.000 -.7848078 -.6348003 _Iarea_id_2 | -.2230104 .0258718 -8.62 0.000 -.2737182 -.1723027 _Iarea_id_3 | -.1604877 .0324646 -4.94 0.000 -.2241172 -.0968581 _Iarea_id_4 | -.5563907 .0201617 -27.60 0.000 -.595907 -.5168745 _Iarea_id_5 | -.4270753 .0395262 -10.80 0.000 -.5045453 -.3496053 _Iarea_id_8 | .2110312 .0231012 9.14 0.000 .1657538 .2563087 _Iarea_id_9 | -.4070224 .0411498 -9.89 0.000 -.4876746 -.3263703 _Iarea_id_10 | .3815969 .0207511 18.39 0.000 .3409255 .4222683 _Iarea_id_11 | -.4730458 .0068439 -69.12 0.000 -.4864596 -.459632 _Iarea_id_12 | .0452851 .0417029 1.09 0.278 -.0364511 .1270212 _Iarea_id_13 | .2863894 .0692915 4.13 0.000 .1505805 .4221983 _Iarea_id_14 | -.6200713 .0826576 -7.50 0.000 -.7820773 -.4580653 _Iarea_id_15 | -.074647 .0264992 -2.82 0.005 -.1265845 -.0227095 _Iarea_id_16 | -.6475343 .0879913 -7.36 0.000 -.8199941 -.4750745 _Iarea_id_17 | .9615073 .0222297 43.25 0.000 .9179379 1.005077 _Iarea_id_18 | .0678957 .047013 1.44 0.149 -.0242481 .1600395 _Iarea_id_19 | .5430723 .0311813 17.42 0.000 .4819581 .6041865 _Iarea_id_20 | -.2488059 .0254594 -9.77 0.000 -.2987054 -.1989064 _Iarea_id_21 | -.4160431 .0408165 -10.19 0.000 -.496042 -.3360442 _Iarea_id_22 | .3608155 .0295104 12.23 0.000 .3029762 .4186548 _Iarea_id_23 | .2731544 .0668649 4.09 0.000 .1421016 .4042072 _Iarea_id_24 | .2182416 .0510745 4.27 0.000 .1181373 .3183459 _Iarea_id_25 | .6392644 .0522784 12.23 0.000 .5368006 .7417281 _Iarea_id_26 | .2736494 .030465 8.98 0.000 .2139392 .3333597 _Iarea_id_28 | .007721 .0274844 0.28 0.779 -.0461475 .0615895 _Iarea_id_29 | .5440733 .0119968 45.35 0.000 .52056 .5675867 _Iarea_id_30 | -.6001869 .1002989 -5.98 0.000 -.7967692 -.4036046 _Iarea_id_31 | .2101772 .0295483 7.11 0.000 .1522636 .2680908 _Iyear_1985 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_1986 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_1987 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_1988 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_1989 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_1990 | 3.009074 .4014848 7.49 0.000 2.222178 3.795969 _Iyear_1991 | 2.84826 .3000763 9.49 0.000 2.260121 3.436398 _Iyear_1992 | 2.262764 .267592 8.46 0.000 1.738293 2.787235 _Iyear_1993 | 1.864366 .2198812 8.48 0.000 1.433407 2.295325 _Iyear_1994 | 1.390448 .2955747 4.70 0.000 .811132 1.969763 _Iyear_1995 | 1.105586 .1999299 5.53 0.000 .7137307 1.497441 _Iyear_1996 | .7844414 .1923404 4.08 0.000 .4074611 1.161422 _Iyear_1997 | .3676496 .2184628 1.68 0.092 -.0605295 .7958288 _Iyear_1998 | .4861134 .1859519 2.61 0.009 .1216544 .8505724 _Iyear_1999 | .1758065 .1480472 1.19 0.235 -.1143607 .4659738 _Iyear_2000 | .6162809 .2101676 2.93 0.003 .2043599 1.028202 _Iyear_2001 | 1.029911 .1859831 5.54 0.000 .6653907 1.394431 _Iyear_2002 | 1.01289 .2391809 4.23 0.000 .5441043 1.481676 _Iyear_2003 | .1374441 .2797584 0.49 0.623 -.4108722 .6857604 _Iyear_2004 | .3222388 .3097047 1.04 0.298 -.2847714 .9292489 _Iyear_2005 | .4207216 .2804163 1.50 0.134 -.1288841 .9703274 _Iyear_2006 | .9334598 .2308818 4.04 0.000 .4809398 1.38598 _Iyear_2007 | .3034178 .2421305 1.25 0.210 -.1711493 .777985 _Iyear_2008 | .5986538 .3884198 1.54 0.123 -.162635 1.359943 _Iyear_2009 | 1.579231 .3074007 5.14 0.000 .9767372 2.181726 _Iyear_2010 | 1.011709 .3523762 2.87 0.004 .3210647 1.702354 _Iyear_2011 | 1.625474 .329076 4.94 0.000 .9804966 2.270451 _Iyear_2012 | 1.443715 .2630645 5.49 0.000 .9281178 1.959312 _Iyear_2013 | 1.015397 .2540668 4.00 0.000 .5174358 1.513359 _Iyear_2014 | .4791515 .1827838 2.62 0.009 .1209018 .8374012 _Iyear_2015 | .5086118 .1502645 3.38 0.001 .2140987 .8031248 _Iyear_2016 | .6521826 .1291502 5.05 0.000 .3990528 .9053124 _Iyear_2017 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_2018 | 0 (omitted) _cons | 2.922681 .4554176 6.42 0.000 2.030079 3.815283 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (no endogenous regressors) . g d2yrfed=50*(ln(rfed)-ln(l4.rfed)) (112 missing values generated) . xi: ivregress 2sls pic (ur = i.area_id*d2yrfed) l.pic epi seas1-seas28 i.area_id i.year if year<2018, vce(cl area_id) i.area_id _Iarea_id_1-31 (naturally coded; _Iarea_id_1 omitted) i.area~d*d2yr~d _IareXd2yr_# (coded as above) i.year _Iyear_1984-2018 (naturally coded; _Iyear_1984 omitted) note: _Iyear_1985 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_1986 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_1987 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_1988 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_1989 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_2017 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_2018 omitted because of collinearity Instrumental variables (2SLS) regression Number of obs = 1525 Wald chi2(85) = 1.2e+05 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 R-squared = 0.4842 Root MSE = 1.0406 (Std. Err. adjusted for 28 clusters in area_id) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Robust pic | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- ur | -.4771353 .1043982 -4.57 0.000 -.6817521 -.2725186 | pic | L1. | .0836527 .0335014 2.50 0.013 .0179911 .1493143 | epi | .2174829 .1390933 1.56 0.118 -.055135 .4901009 seas1 | -.3926456 .0607314 -6.47 0.000 -.5116769 -.2736144 seas2 | -.9043931 .0561845 -16.10 0.000 -1.014513 -.7942735 seas3 | -.931802 .0487919 -19.10 0.000 -1.027432 -.8361716 seas4 | .0255318 .0400807 0.64 0.524 -.053025 .1040886 seas5 | -.7483406 .0253656 -29.50 0.000 -.7980563 -.6986249 seas6 | -.061753 .0517563 -1.19 0.233 -.1631935 .0396875 seas7 | -.1154392 .0283072 -4.08 0.000 -.1709202 -.0599582 seas8 | -.5183821 .0208802 -24.83 0.000 -.5593064 -.4774578 seas9 | .3804833 .0331805 11.47 0.000 .3154507 .4455159 seas10 | -.5404171 .0487079 -11.10 0.000 -.6358829 -.4449513 seas11 | -.4077031 .0185234 -22.01 0.000 -.4440084 -.3713978 seas12 | -.6914333 .0411363 -16.81 0.000 -.7720591 -.6108076 seas13 | -1.021157 .0315621 -32.35 0.000 -1.083018 -.9592965 seas14 | -.4384862 .0108693 -40.34 0.000 -.4597896 -.4171828 seas15 | -1.471024 .0582731 -25.24 0.000 -1.585238 -1.356811 seas16 | -1.523443 .0446321 -34.13 0.000 -1.610921 -1.435966 seas17 | -1.10339 .0405543 -27.21 0.000 -1.182875 -1.023905 seas18 | -.3705285 .0168012 -22.05 0.000 -.4034582 -.3375988 seas19 | -.4556059 .0135758 -33.56 0.000 -.482214 -.4289979 seas20 | -1.306853 .0389412 -33.56 0.000 -1.383176 -1.23053 seas21 | -1.623168 .0620402 -26.16 0.000 -1.744765 -1.501571 seas22 | -.7737736 .0360962 -21.44 0.000 -.8445209 -.7030263 seas23 | -.8871569 .0289585 -30.64 0.000 -.9439146 -.8303993 seas24 | -.690266 .0188739 -36.57 0.000 -.7272582 -.6532738 seas25 | -.1523542 .0136066 -11.20 0.000 -.1790227 -.1256858 seas26 | -.9206016 .0268039 -34.35 0.000 -.9731363 -.8680669 seas27 | -.4309702 .0066178 -65.12 0.000 -.4439408 -.4179995 seas28 | -.7767396 .0754793 -10.29 0.000 -.9246763 -.6288029 _Iarea_id_2 | -.2507606 .0317936 -7.89 0.000 -.3130749 -.1884464 _Iarea_id_3 | -.223578 .0628562 -3.56 0.000 -.346774 -.1003821 _Iarea_id_4 | -.595933 .040159 -14.84 0.000 -.6746432 -.5172229 _Iarea_id_5 | -.5039725 .0767327 -6.57 0.000 -.6543659 -.3535792 _Iarea_id_8 | .2482111 .0410073 6.05 0.000 .1678383 .3285839 _Iarea_id_9 | -.4888374 .0870269 -5.62 0.000 -.659407 -.3182677 _Iarea_id_10 | .4220301 .0434627 9.71 0.000 .3368447 .5072155 _Iarea_id_11 | -.4828069 .0119424 -40.43 0.000 -.5062136 -.4594003 _Iarea_id_12 | .1102558 .0771977 1.43 0.153 -.0410488 .2615605 _Iarea_id_13 | .4068099 .136379 2.98 0.003 .1395119 .6741079 _Iarea_id_14 | -.7904294 .1771052 -4.46 0.000 -1.137549 -.4433095 _Iarea_id_15 | -.1048607 .033701 -3.11 0.002 -.1709135 -.0388078 _Iarea_id_16 | -.8267836 .1875941 -4.41 0.000 -1.194461 -.4591058 _Iarea_id_17 | .9660478 .0237198 40.73 0.000 .9195579 1.012538 _Iarea_id_18 | -.0022069 .0719897 -0.03 0.976 -.1433041 .1388904 _Iarea_id_19 | .5068527 .0463101 10.94 0.000 .4160866 .5976188 _Iarea_id_20 | -.2981314 .0499395 -5.97 0.000 -.3960111 -.2002518 _Iarea_id_21 | -.4988571 .0829065 -6.02 0.000 -.661351 -.3363633 _Iarea_id_22 | .3171924 .0447963 7.08 0.000 .2293933 .4049916 _Iarea_id_23 | .1780392 .0961566 1.85 0.064 -.0104242 .3665026 _Iarea_id_24 | .1162904 .1077284 1.08 0.280 -.0948535 .3274342 _Iarea_id_25 | .7222641 .0977184 7.39 0.000 .5307397 .9137886 _Iarea_id_26 | .2113451 .0644084 3.28 0.001 .085107 .3375832 _Iarea_id_28 | -.0406964 .0532514 -0.76 0.445 -.1450673 .0636745 _Iarea_id_29 | .524739 .0201039 26.10 0.000 .4853362 .5641418 _Iarea_id_30 | -.8011799 .2127241 -3.77 0.000 -1.218111 -.3842484 _Iarea_id_31 | .2535887 .0529631 4.79 0.000 .149783 .3573945 _Iyear_1985 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_1986 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_1987 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_1988 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_1989 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_1990 | 3.153449 .418544 7.53 0.000 2.333118 3.97378 _Iyear_1991 | 3.113023 .3672804 8.48 0.000 2.393167 3.832879 _Iyear_1992 | 2.564564 .3945915 6.50 0.000 1.791179 3.337949 _Iyear_1993 | 2.106554 .3066296 6.87 0.000 1.505571 2.707537 _Iyear_1994 | 1.551642 .2973676 5.22 0.000 .968812 2.134471 _Iyear_1995 | 1.212418 .1994641 6.08 0.000 .8214758 1.603361 _Iyear_1996 | .8673052 .2112766 4.11 0.000 .4532106 1.2814 _Iyear_1997 | .402719 .2180804 1.85 0.065 -.0247108 .8301487 _Iyear_1998 | .4736439 .1872004 2.53 0.011 .1067378 .84055 _Iyear_1999 | .1369629 .1450124 0.94 0.345 -.1472563 .421182 _Iyear_2000 | .5886106 .2089687 2.82 0.005 .1790395 .9981817 _Iyear_2001 | 1.078894 .1936375 5.57 0.000 .6993717 1.458417 _Iyear_2002 | 1.170981 .2865451 4.09 0.000 .6093631 1.732599 _Iyear_2003 | .2944431 .3057672 0.96 0.336 -.3048497 .8937358 _Iyear_2004 | .4307452 .3191999 1.35 0.177 -.1948751 1.056366 _Iyear_2005 | .5009842 .2707193 1.85 0.064 -.0296159 1.031584 _Iyear_2006 | .9749726 .2367248 4.12 0.000 .5110005 1.438945 _Iyear_2007 | .3485932 .2318188 1.50 0.133 -.1057632 .8029497 _Iyear_2008 | .7530166 .4098539 1.84 0.066 -.0502823 1.556315 _Iyear_2009 | 2.036068 .482995 4.22 0.000 1.089415 2.982721 _Iyear_2010 | 1.485713 .5330236 2.79 0.005 .4410063 2.53042 _Iyear_2011 | 2.038534 .4934091 4.13 0.000 1.07147 3.005598 _Iyear_2012 | 1.783527 .4079054 4.37 0.000 .9840469 2.583006 _Iyear_2013 | 1.287444 .3703376 3.48 0.001 .5615954 2.013292 _Iyear_2014 | .6424352 .2297947 2.80 0.005 .1920458 1.092825 _Iyear_2015 | .580467 .154673 3.75 0.000 .2773134 .8836206 _Iyear_2016 | .6981339 .1228588 5.68 0.000 .4573349 .9389328 _Iyear_2017 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_2018 | 0 (omitted) _cons | 3.437687 .7041437 4.88 0.000 2.057591 4.817783 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Instrumented: ur Instruments: L.pic epi seas1 seas2 seas3 seas4 seas5 seas6 seas7 seas8 seas9 seas10 seas11 seas12 seas13 seas14 seas15 seas16 seas17 seas18 seas19 seas20 seas21 seas22 seas23 seas24 seas25 seas26 seas27 seas28 _Iarea_id_2 _Iarea_id_3 _Iarea_id_4 _Iarea_id_5 _Iarea_id_8 _Iarea_id_9 _Iarea_id_10 _Iarea_id_11 _Iarea_id_12 _Iarea_id_13 _Iarea_id_14 _Iarea_id_15 _Iarea_id_16 _Iarea_id_17 _Iarea_id_18 _Iarea_id_19 _Iarea_id_20 _Iarea_id_21 _Iarea_id_22 _Iarea_id_23 _Iarea_id_24 _Iarea_id_25 _Iarea_id_26 _Iarea_id_28 _Iarea_id_29 _Iarea_id_30 _Iarea_id_31 _Iyear_1990 _Iyear_1991 _Iyear_1992 _Iyear_1993 _Iyear_1994 _Iyear_1995 _Iyear_1996 _Iyear_1997 _Iyear_1998 _Iyear_1999 _Iyear_2000 _Iyear_2001 _Iyear_2002 _Iyear_2003 _Iyear_2004 _Iyear_2005 _Iyear_2006 _Iyear_2007 _Iyear_2008 _Iyear_2009 _Iyear_2010 _Iyear_2011 _Iyear_2012 _Iyear_2013 _Iyear_2014 _Iyear_2015 _Iyear_2016 d2yrfed _IareXd2yr_2 _IareXd2yr_3 _IareXd2yr_4 _IareXd2yr_5 _IareXd2yr_8 _IareXd2yr_9 _IareXd2yr_10 _IareXd2yr_11 _IareXd2yr_12 _IareXd2yr_13 _IareXd2yr_14 _IareXd2yr_15 _IareXd2yr_16 _IareXd2yr_17 _IareXd2yr_18 _IareXd2yr_19 _IareXd2yr_20 _IareXd2yr_21 _IareXd2yr_22 _IareXd2yr_23 _IareXd2yr_24 _IareXd2yr_25 _IareXd2yr_26 _IareXd2yr_28 _IareXd2yr_29 _IareXd2yr_30 _IareXd2yr_31 . xi: ivregress 2sls pic (ur = i.area_id*d2yrfed) l.pic epi seas1-seas28 i.area_id if year<2018, vce(cl area_id) i.area_id _Iarea_id_1-31 (naturally coded; _Iarea_id_1 omitted) i.area~d*d2yr~d _IareXd2yr_# (coded as above) Instrumental variables (2SLS) regression Number of obs = 1525 Wald chi2(58) = 254.38 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 R-squared = 0.3103 Root MSE = 1.2033 (Std. Err. adjusted for 28 clusters in area_id) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Robust pic | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- ur | -.3389383 .0735457 -4.61 0.000 -.4830852 -.1947914 | pic | L1. | .3166467 .0444508 7.12 0.000 .2295247 .4037686 | epi | .6600572 .064429 10.24 0.000 .5337787 .7863358 seas1 | -.3049278 .0424579 -7.18 0.000 -.3881439 -.2217118 seas2 | -.9479817 .0339314 -27.94 0.000 -1.014486 -.8814773 seas3 | -1.003633 .0292794 -34.28 0.000 -1.061019 -.9462459 seas4 | .1249901 .0348593 3.59 0.000 .0566671 .1933132 seas5 | -.8328015 .0173127 -48.10 0.000 -.8667339 -.7988692 seas6 | .0544642 .0395056 1.38 0.168 -.0229653 .1318936 seas7 | -.0576477 .0208561 -2.76 0.006 -.098525 -.0167705 seas8 | -.5384811 .0118582 -45.41 0.000 -.5617228 -.5152395 seas9 | .5383303 .0350241 15.37 0.000 .4696843 .6069762 seas10 | -.5129913 .0329431 -15.57 0.000 -.5775587 -.448424 seas11 | -.4371629 .0114972 -38.02 0.000 -.4596969 -.4146288 seas12 | -.7147975 .025382 -28.16 0.000 -.7645452 -.6650497 seas13 | -1.140973 .0230096 -49.59 0.000 -1.186071 -1.095875 seas14 | -.4794352 .0073617 -65.13 0.000 -.4938639 -.4650064 seas15 | -1.827973 .070188 -26.04 0.000 -1.965539 -1.690407 seas16 | -1.847463 .0576622 -32.04 0.000 -1.960479 -1.734447 seas17 | -1.385002 .0477754 -28.99 0.000 -1.47864 -1.291364 seas18 | -.3954527 .0108052 -36.60 0.000 -.4166305 -.3742749 seas19 | -.5440919 .0133861 -40.65 0.000 -.5703282 -.5178556 seas20 | -1.585072 .0499471 -31.74 0.000 -1.682967 -1.487178 seas21 | -2.042011 .0807452 -25.29 0.000 -2.200268 -1.883753 seas22 | -.8534279 .0224526 -38.01 0.000 -.8974341 -.8094216 seas23 | -1.069191 .0381971 -27.99 0.000 -1.144055 -.9943257 seas24 | -.8187834 .025737 -31.81 0.000 -.8692269 -.7683398 seas25 | -.1340128 .0081066 -16.53 0.000 -.1499014 -.1181241 seas26 | -1.092079 .0357401 -30.56 0.000 -1.162128 -1.022029 seas27 | -.4662612 .0080658 -57.81 0.000 -.4820698 -.4504526 seas28 | -.7369939 .0471269 -15.64 0.000 -.829361 -.6446268 _Iarea_id_2 | -.095226 .0424457 -2.24 0.025 -.178418 -.012034 _Iarea_id_3 | -.0484215 .0617624 -0.78 0.433 -.1694735 .0726305 _Iarea_id_4 | -.5404023 .0357876 -15.10 0.000 -.6105447 -.4702599 _Iarea_id_5 | -.2798942 .0748761 -3.74 0.000 -.4266487 -.1331396 _Iarea_id_8 | .0994833 .0314661 3.16 0.002 .037811 .1611557 _Iarea_id_9 | -.3660976 .0619899 -5.91 0.000 -.4875956 -.2445996 _Iarea_id_10 | .3707304 .0300713 12.33 0.000 .3117917 .4296692 _Iarea_id_11 | -.4909128 .0070324 -69.81 0.000 -.5046961 -.4771295 _Iarea_id_12 | .0667542 .0435282 1.53 0.125 -.0185595 .1520679 _Iarea_id_13 | .2963449 .0835278 3.55 0.000 .1326334 .4600565 _Iarea_id_14 | -.5174687 .1358998 -3.81 0.000 -.7838275 -.25111 _Iarea_id_15 | .0567157 .0442908 1.28 0.200 -.0300926 .143524 _Iarea_id_16 | -.5874831 .1410774 -4.16 0.000 -.8639897 -.3109764 _Iarea_id_17 | 1.014403 .0200226 50.66 0.000 .975159 1.053646 _Iarea_id_18 | .3061545 .0848253 3.61 0.000 .1399 .472409 _Iarea_id_19 | .392225 .0442198 8.87 0.000 .3055557 .4788942 _Iarea_id_20 | -.2234505 .0456507 -4.89 0.000 -.3129243 -.1339767 _Iarea_id_21 | -.3107168 .0765616 -4.06 0.000 -.4607747 -.1606588 _Iarea_id_22 | .4834947 .0533515 9.06 0.000 .3789277 .5880617 _Iarea_id_23 | .3627928 .0954819 3.80 0.000 .1756518 .5499338 _Iarea_id_24 | .2239687 .0790084 2.83 0.005 .0691152 .3788223 _Iarea_id_25 | .6877148 .056521 12.17 0.000 .5769357 .7984939 _Iarea_id_26 | .2899817 .0510581 5.68 0.000 .1899096 .3900537 _Iarea_id_28 | -.0453067 .0371905 -1.22 0.223 -.1181988 .0275854 _Iarea_id_29 | .5506997 .0200645 27.45 0.000 .511374 .5900254 _Iarea_id_30 | -.5422423 .1541595 -3.52 0.000 -.8443894 -.2400952 _Iarea_id_31 | .2271667 .0287502 7.90 0.000 .1708173 .2835161 _cons | 1.865653 .4611511 4.05 0.000 .9618133 2.769492 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Instrumented: ur Instruments: L.pic epi seas1 seas2 seas3 seas4 seas5 seas6 seas7 seas8 seas9 seas10 seas11 seas12 seas13 seas14 seas15 seas16 seas17 seas18 seas19 seas20 seas21 seas22 seas23 seas24 seas25 seas26 seas27 seas28 _Iarea_id_2 _Iarea_id_3 _Iarea_id_4 _Iarea_id_5 _Iarea_id_8 _Iarea_id_9 _Iarea_id_10 _Iarea_id_11 _Iarea_id_12 _Iarea_id_13 _Iarea_id_14 _Iarea_id_15 _Iarea_id_16 _Iarea_id_17 _Iarea_id_18 _Iarea_id_19 _Iarea_id_20 _Iarea_id_21 _Iarea_id_22 _Iarea_id_23 _Iarea_id_24 _Iarea_id_25 _Iarea_id_26 _Iarea_id_28 _Iarea_id_29 _Iarea_id_30 _Iarea_id_31 d2yrfed _IareXd2yr_2 _IareXd2yr_3 _IareXd2yr_4 _IareXd2yr_5 _IareXd2yr_8 _IareXd2yr_9 _IareXd2yr_10 _IareXd2yr_11 _IareXd2yr_12 _IareXd2yr_13 _IareXd2yr_14 _IareXd2yr_15 _IareXd2yr_16 _IareXd2yr_17 _IareXd2yr_18 _IareXd2yr_19 _IareXd2yr_20 _IareXd2yr_21 _IareXd2yr_22 _IareXd2yr_23 _IareXd2yr_24 _IareXd2yr_25 _IareXd2yr_26 _IareXd2yr_28 _IareXd2yr_29 _IareXd2yr_30 _IareXd2yr_31 . xi: ivregress 2sls pic (ur = i.area_id*d2yrfed) l.pic epi seas1-seas28 if year<2018, vce(cl area_id) i.area_id _Iarea_id_1-31 (naturally coded; _Iarea_id_1 omitted) i.area~d*d2yr~d _IareXd2yr_# (coded as above) Instrumental variables (2SLS) regression Number of obs = 1525 Wald chi2(31) = 469.06 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 R-squared = 0.3213 Root MSE = 1.1937 (Std. Err. adjusted for 28 clusters in area_id) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Robust pic | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- ur | -.1418696 .0566708 -2.50 0.012 -.2529423 -.030797 | pic | L1. | .3646886 .0358768 10.17 0.000 .2943713 .4350058 | epi | .5946058 .0583834 10.18 0.000 .4801764 .7090351 seas1 | -.3141153 .0638347 -4.92 0.000 -.4392289 -.1890016 seas2 | -1.007113 .0673775 -14.95 0.000 -1.139171 -.875056 seas3 | -.963446 .072352 -13.32 0.000 -1.105253 -.8216387 seas4 | -.3686585 .0698092 -5.28 0.000 -.505482 -.231835 seas5 | -1.040696 .0712668 -14.60 0.000 -1.180377 -.9010159 seas6 | .0596241 .0650193 0.92 0.359 -.0678114 .1870595 seas7 | -.3279255 .0740555 -4.43 0.000 -.4730715 -.1827794 seas8 | -.3415292 .0745826 -4.58 0.000 -.4877084 -.1953501 seas9 | .0088208 .0661627 0.13 0.894 -.1208557 .1384972 seas10 | -.600622 .0730375 -8.22 0.000 -.7437728 -.4574711 seas11 | -.4674696 .1057376 -4.42 0.000 -.6747115 -.2602277 seas12 | -.933093 .1149405 -8.12 0.000 -1.158372 -.7078139 seas13 | -1.104045 .0634324 -17.41 0.000 -1.22837 -.9797195 seas14 | -.8044356 .1061998 -7.57 0.000 -1.012583 -.5962877 seas15 | -1.037669 .0857083 -12.11 0.000 -1.205654 -.8696842 seas16 | -1.560425 .0628321 -24.83 0.000 -1.683574 -1.437276 seas17 | -1.083659 .0651851 -16.62 0.000 -1.211419 -.9558984 seas18 | -.6033273 .0649129 -9.29 0.000 -.7305542 -.4761004 seas19 | -.7962632 .0692365 -11.50 0.000 -.9319643 -.6605621 seas20 | -1.176085 .0640391 -18.37 0.000 -1.3016 -1.050571 seas21 | -1.762806 .0647901 -27.21 0.000 -1.889792 -1.63582 seas22 | -.4978726 .0806203 -6.18 0.000 -.6558855 -.3398596 seas23 | -.7146919 .1061351 -6.73 0.000 -.9227128 -.5066709 seas24 | -.5434599 .0640143 -8.49 0.000 -.6689255 -.4179942 seas25 | -.1772422 .0637397 -2.78 0.005 -.3021697 -.0523147 seas26 | -.6650857 .069077 -9.63 0.000 -.8004741 -.5296973 seas27 | -.7243403 .1113278 -6.51 0.000 -.9425387 -.5061418 seas28 | -.5807718 .0639037 -9.09 0.000 -.7060207 -.4555229 _cons | .8639674 .3572163 2.42 0.016 .1638363 1.564099 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Instrumented: ur Instruments: L.pic epi seas1 seas2 seas3 seas4 seas5 seas6 seas7 seas8 seas9 seas10 seas11 seas12 seas13 seas14 seas15 seas16 seas17 seas18 seas19 seas20 seas21 seas22 seas23 seas24 seas25 seas26 seas27 seas28 _Iarea_id_2 _Iarea_id_3 _Iarea_id_4 _Iarea_id_5 _Iarea_id_8 _Iarea_id_9 _Iarea_id_10 _Iarea_id_11 _Iarea_id_12 _Iarea_id_13 _Iarea_id_14 _Iarea_id_15 _Iarea_id_16 _Iarea_id_17 _Iarea_id_18 _Iarea_id_19 _Iarea_id_20 _Iarea_id_21 _Iarea_id_22 _Iarea_id_23 _Iarea_id_24 _Iarea_id_25 _Iarea_id_26 _Iarea_id_28 _Iarea_id_29 _Iarea_id_30 _Iarea_id_31 d2yrfed _IareXd2yr_2 _IareXd2yr_3 _IareXd2yr_4 _IareXd2yr_5 _IareXd2yr_8 _IareXd2yr_9 _IareXd2yr_10 _IareXd2yr_11 _IareXd2yr_12 _IareXd2yr_13 _IareXd2yr_14 _IareXd2yr_15 _IareXd2yr_16 _IareXd2yr_17 _IareXd2yr_18 _IareXd2yr_19 _IareXd2yr_20 _IareXd2yr_21 _IareXd2yr_22 _IareXd2yr_23 _IareXd2yr_24 _IareXd2yr_25 _IareXd2yr_26 _IareXd2yr_28 _IareXd2yr_29 _IareXd2yr_30 _IareXd2yr_31 . xi: ivregress 2sls pic (ur = i.area_id*d2yrfed) l.pic epi seas1-seas28 i.area_id i.year if year<2018, vce(cl area_id) i.area_id _Iarea_id_1-31 (naturally coded; _Iarea_id_1 omitted) i.area~d*d2yr~d _IareXd2yr_# (coded as above) i.year _Iyear_1984-2018 (naturally coded; _Iyear_1984 omitted) note: _Iyear_1985 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_1986 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_1987 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_1988 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_1989 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_2017 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_2018 omitted because of collinearity Instrumental variables (2SLS) regression Number of obs = 1525 Wald chi2(85) = 1.2e+05 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 R-squared = 0.4842 Root MSE = 1.0406 (Std. Err. adjusted for 28 clusters in area_id) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Robust pic | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- ur | -.4771353 .1043982 -4.57 0.000 -.6817521 -.2725186 | pic | L1. | .0836527 .0335014 2.50 0.013 .0179911 .1493143 | epi | .2174829 .1390933 1.56 0.118 -.055135 .4901009 seas1 | -.3926456 .0607314 -6.47 0.000 -.5116769 -.2736144 seas2 | -.9043931 .0561845 -16.10 0.000 -1.014513 -.7942735 seas3 | -.931802 .0487919 -19.10 0.000 -1.027432 -.8361716 seas4 | .0255318 .0400807 0.64 0.524 -.053025 .1040886 seas5 | -.7483406 .0253656 -29.50 0.000 -.7980563 -.6986249 seas6 | -.061753 .0517563 -1.19 0.233 -.1631935 .0396875 seas7 | -.1154392 .0283072 -4.08 0.000 -.1709202 -.0599582 seas8 | -.5183821 .0208802 -24.83 0.000 -.5593064 -.4774578 seas9 | .3804833 .0331805 11.47 0.000 .3154507 .4455159 seas10 | -.5404171 .0487079 -11.10 0.000 -.6358829 -.4449513 seas11 | -.4077031 .0185234 -22.01 0.000 -.4440084 -.3713978 seas12 | -.6914333 .0411363 -16.81 0.000 -.7720591 -.6108076 seas13 | -1.021157 .0315621 -32.35 0.000 -1.083018 -.9592965 seas14 | -.4384862 .0108693 -40.34 0.000 -.4597896 -.4171828 seas15 | -1.471024 .0582731 -25.24 0.000 -1.585238 -1.356811 seas16 | -1.523443 .0446321 -34.13 0.000 -1.610921 -1.435966 seas17 | -1.10339 .0405543 -27.21 0.000 -1.182875 -1.023905 seas18 | -.3705285 .0168012 -22.05 0.000 -.4034582 -.3375988 seas19 | -.4556059 .0135758 -33.56 0.000 -.482214 -.4289979 seas20 | -1.306853 .0389412 -33.56 0.000 -1.383176 -1.23053 seas21 | -1.623168 .0620402 -26.16 0.000 -1.744765 -1.501571 seas22 | -.7737736 .0360962 -21.44 0.000 -.8445209 -.7030263 seas23 | -.8871569 .0289585 -30.64 0.000 -.9439146 -.8303993 seas24 | -.690266 .0188739 -36.57 0.000 -.7272582 -.6532738 seas25 | -.1523542 .0136066 -11.20 0.000 -.1790227 -.1256858 seas26 | -.9206016 .0268039 -34.35 0.000 -.9731363 -.8680669 seas27 | -.4309702 .0066178 -65.12 0.000 -.4439408 -.4179995 seas28 | -.7767396 .0754793 -10.29 0.000 -.9246763 -.6288029 _Iarea_id_2 | -.2507606 .0317936 -7.89 0.000 -.3130749 -.1884464 _Iarea_id_3 | -.223578 .0628562 -3.56 0.000 -.346774 -.1003821 _Iarea_id_4 | -.595933 .040159 -14.84 0.000 -.6746432 -.5172229 _Iarea_id_5 | -.5039725 .0767327 -6.57 0.000 -.6543659 -.3535792 _Iarea_id_8 | .2482111 .0410073 6.05 0.000 .1678383 .3285839 _Iarea_id_9 | -.4888374 .0870269 -5.62 0.000 -.659407 -.3182677 _Iarea_id_10 | .4220301 .0434627 9.71 0.000 .3368447 .5072155 _Iarea_id_11 | -.4828069 .0119424 -40.43 0.000 -.5062136 -.4594003 _Iarea_id_12 | .1102558 .0771977 1.43 0.153 -.0410488 .2615605 _Iarea_id_13 | .4068099 .136379 2.98 0.003 .1395119 .6741079 _Iarea_id_14 | -.7904294 .1771052 -4.46 0.000 -1.137549 -.4433095 _Iarea_id_15 | -.1048607 .033701 -3.11 0.002 -.1709135 -.0388078 _Iarea_id_16 | -.8267836 .1875941 -4.41 0.000 -1.194461 -.4591058 _Iarea_id_17 | .9660478 .0237198 40.73 0.000 .9195579 1.012538 _Iarea_id_18 | -.0022069 .0719897 -0.03 0.976 -.1433041 .1388904 _Iarea_id_19 | .5068527 .0463101 10.94 0.000 .4160866 .5976188 _Iarea_id_20 | -.2981314 .0499395 -5.97 0.000 -.3960111 -.2002518 _Iarea_id_21 | -.4988571 .0829065 -6.02 0.000 -.661351 -.3363633 _Iarea_id_22 | .3171924 .0447963 7.08 0.000 .2293933 .4049916 _Iarea_id_23 | .1780392 .0961566 1.85 0.064 -.0104242 .3665026 _Iarea_id_24 | .1162904 .1077284 1.08 0.280 -.0948535 .3274342 _Iarea_id_25 | .7222641 .0977184 7.39 0.000 .5307397 .9137886 _Iarea_id_26 | .2113451 .0644084 3.28 0.001 .085107 .3375832 _Iarea_id_28 | -.0406964 .0532514 -0.76 0.445 -.1450673 .0636745 _Iarea_id_29 | .524739 .0201039 26.10 0.000 .4853362 .5641418 _Iarea_id_30 | -.8011799 .2127241 -3.77 0.000 -1.218111 -.3842484 _Iarea_id_31 | .2535887 .0529631 4.79 0.000 .149783 .3573945 _Iyear_1985 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_1986 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_1987 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_1988 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_1989 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_1990 | 3.153449 .418544 7.53 0.000 2.333118 3.97378 _Iyear_1991 | 3.113023 .3672804 8.48 0.000 2.393167 3.832879 _Iyear_1992 | 2.564564 .3945915 6.50 0.000 1.791179 3.337949 _Iyear_1993 | 2.106554 .3066296 6.87 0.000 1.505571 2.707537 _Iyear_1994 | 1.551642 .2973676 5.22 0.000 .968812 2.134471 _Iyear_1995 | 1.212418 .1994641 6.08 0.000 .8214758 1.603361 _Iyear_1996 | .8673052 .2112766 4.11 0.000 .4532106 1.2814 _Iyear_1997 | .402719 .2180804 1.85 0.065 -.0247108 .8301487 _Iyear_1998 | .4736439 .1872004 2.53 0.011 .1067378 .84055 _Iyear_1999 | .1369629 .1450124 0.94 0.345 -.1472563 .421182 _Iyear_2000 | .5886106 .2089687 2.82 0.005 .1790395 .9981817 _Iyear_2001 | 1.078894 .1936375 5.57 0.000 .6993717 1.458417 _Iyear_2002 | 1.170981 .2865451 4.09 0.000 .6093631 1.732599 _Iyear_2003 | .2944431 .3057672 0.96 0.336 -.3048497 .8937358 _Iyear_2004 | .4307452 .3191999 1.35 0.177 -.1948751 1.056366 _Iyear_2005 | .5009842 .2707193 1.85 0.064 -.0296159 1.031584 _Iyear_2006 | .9749726 .2367248 4.12 0.000 .5110005 1.438945 _Iyear_2007 | .3485932 .2318188 1.50 0.133 -.1057632 .8029497 _Iyear_2008 | .7530166 .4098539 1.84 0.066 -.0502823 1.556315 _Iyear_2009 | 2.036068 .482995 4.22 0.000 1.089415 2.982721 _Iyear_2010 | 1.485713 .5330236 2.79 0.005 .4410063 2.53042 _Iyear_2011 | 2.038534 .4934091 4.13 0.000 1.07147 3.005598 _Iyear_2012 | 1.783527 .4079054 4.37 0.000 .9840469 2.583006 _Iyear_2013 | 1.287444 .3703376 3.48 0.001 .5615954 2.013292 _Iyear_2014 | .6424352 .2297947 2.80 0.005 .1920458 1.092825 _Iyear_2015 | .580467 .154673 3.75 0.000 .2773134 .8836206 _Iyear_2016 | .6981339 .1228588 5.68 0.000 .4573349 .9389328 _Iyear_2017 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_2018 | 0 (omitted) _cons | 3.437687 .7041437 4.88 0.000 2.057591 4.817783 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Instrumented: ur Instruments: L.pic epi seas1 seas2 seas3 seas4 seas5 seas6 seas7 seas8 seas9 seas10 seas11 seas12 seas13 seas14 seas15 seas16 seas17 seas18 seas19 seas20 seas21 seas22 seas23 seas24 seas25 seas26 seas27 seas28 _Iarea_id_2 _Iarea_id_3 _Iarea_id_4 _Iarea_id_5 _Iarea_id_8 _Iarea_id_9 _Iarea_id_10 _Iarea_id_11 _Iarea_id_12 _Iarea_id_13 _Iarea_id_14 _Iarea_id_15 _Iarea_id_16 _Iarea_id_17 _Iarea_id_18 _Iarea_id_19 _Iarea_id_20 _Iarea_id_21 _Iarea_id_22 _Iarea_id_23 _Iarea_id_24 _Iarea_id_25 _Iarea_id_26 _Iarea_id_28 _Iarea_id_29 _Iarea_id_30 _Iarea_id_31 _Iyear_1990 _Iyear_1991 _Iyear_1992 _Iyear_1993 _Iyear_1994 _Iyear_1995 _Iyear_1996 _Iyear_1997 _Iyear_1998 _Iyear_1999 _Iyear_2000 _Iyear_2001 _Iyear_2002 _Iyear_2003 _Iyear_2004 _Iyear_2005 _Iyear_2006 _Iyear_2007 _Iyear_2008 _Iyear_2009 _Iyear_2010 _Iyear_2011 _Iyear_2012 _Iyear_2013 _Iyear_2014 _Iyear_2015 _Iyear_2016 d2yrfed _IareXd2yr_2 _IareXd2yr_3 _IareXd2yr_4 _IareXd2yr_5 _IareXd2yr_8 _IareXd2yr_9 _IareXd2yr_10 _IareXd2yr_11 _IareXd2yr_12 _IareXd2yr_13 _IareXd2yr_14 _IareXd2yr_15 _IareXd2yr_16 _IareXd2yr_17 _IareXd2yr_18 _IareXd2yr_19 _IareXd2yr_20 _IareXd2yr_21 _IareXd2yr_22 _IareXd2yr_23 _IareXd2yr_24 _IareXd2yr_25 _IareXd2yr_26 _IareXd2yr_28 _IareXd2yr_29 _IareXd2yr_30 _IareXd2yr_31 . xi: ivregress 2sls pic (ur = i.area_id*d2yrfed) l.pic epi seas1-seas28 i.area_id i.year if year<2009, vce(cl area_id) i.area_id _Iarea_id_1-31 (naturally coded; _Iarea_id_1 omitted) i.area~d*d2yr~d _IareXd2yr_# (coded as above) i.year _Iyear_1984-2018 (naturally coded; _Iyear_1984 omitted) note: _Iyear_1985 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_1986 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_1987 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_1988 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_1989 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_2008 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_2009 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_2010 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_2011 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_2012 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_2013 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_2014 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_2015 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_2016 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_2017 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_2018 omitted because of collinearity Instrumental variables (2SLS) regression Number of obs = 1021 Wald chi2(76) =13803.82 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 R-squared = 0.4945 Root MSE = 1.0934 (Std. Err. adjusted for 28 clusters in area_id) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Robust pic | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- ur | -.586349 .1239988 -4.73 0.000 -.8293822 -.3433159 | pic | L1. | .0703831 .0407039 1.73 0.084 -.0093952 .1501614 | epi | -.0915254 .2109047 -0.43 0.664 -.5048911 .3218402 seas1 | -.3869658 .0756373 -5.12 0.000 -.5352121 -.2387195 seas2 | -1.268344 .0598101 -21.21 0.000 -1.38557 -1.151119 seas3 | -1.042231 .0454394 -22.94 0.000 -1.131291 -.9531717 seas4 | .1611521 .0371891 4.33 0.000 .0882627 .2340414 seas5 | -.6637284 .0216616 -30.64 0.000 -.7061844 -.6212724 seas6 | -.1547587 .047214 -3.28 0.001 -.2472965 -.0622209 seas7 | -.3049348 .0240068 -12.70 0.000 -.3519874 -.2578823 seas8 | -.7785257 .026791 -29.06 0.000 -.8310352 -.7260163 seas9 | .2855869 .0335746 8.51 0.000 .2197819 .3513919 seas10 | -.4950355 .0559458 -8.85 0.000 -.6046873 -.3853838 seas11 | -.6252281 .0171405 -36.48 0.000 -.6588229 -.5916334 seas12 | -1.060358 .0367819 -28.83 0.000 -1.132449 -.9882665 seas13 | -1.133071 .0338163 -33.51 0.000 -1.19935 -1.066792 seas14 | -.6033894 .0167549 -36.01 0.000 -.6362283 -.5705504 seas15 | -1.564684 .0867344 -18.04 0.000 -1.73468 -1.394688 seas16 | -2.113282 .0722595 -29.25 0.000 -2.254908 -1.971656 seas17 | -1.249781 .0873497 -14.31 0.000 -1.420984 -1.078579 seas18 | -.1376438 .0181775 -7.57 0.000 -.173271 -.1020166 seas19 | -.3834496 .0156764 -24.46 0.000 -.4141748 -.3527245 seas20 | -1.713381 .0604955 -28.32 0.000 -1.83195 -1.594812 seas21 | -2.693095 .1407582 -19.13 0.000 -2.968976 -2.417214 seas22 | -1.17409 .0441855 -26.57 0.000 -1.260692 -1.087488 seas23 | -1.049752 .045722 -22.96 0.000 -1.139365 -.9601383 seas24 | -.6584494 .0275311 -23.92 0.000 -.7124094 -.6044895 seas25 | -.3757097 .0153761 -24.43 0.000 -.4058464 -.345573 seas26 | -1.188893 .0449862 -26.43 0.000 -1.277065 -1.100722 seas27 | -.5932924 .0146346 -40.54 0.000 -.6219756 -.5646091 seas28 | -.8756608 .0921159 -9.51 0.000 -1.056205 -.6951169 _Iarea_id_2 | -.13998 .0627646 -2.23 0.026 -.2629964 -.0169636 _Iarea_id_3 | -.3424511 .1205131 -2.84 0.004 -.5786524 -.1062498 _Iarea_id_4 | -.7522619 .0860405 -8.74 0.000 -.9208982 -.5836256 _Iarea_id_5 | -.597948 .106556 -5.61 0.000 -.8067939 -.3891022 _Iarea_id_8 | .2006188 .0203398 9.86 0.000 .1607535 .2404842 _Iarea_id_9 | -.218911 .093345 -2.35 0.019 -.4018638 -.0359581 _Iarea_id_10 | .8646028 .0497626 17.37 0.000 .7670699 .9621358 _Iarea_id_11 | -.3390933 .0443859 -7.64 0.000 -.426088 -.2520986 _Iarea_id_12 | .1661614 .0494266 3.36 0.001 .069287 .2630357 _Iarea_id_13 | .4923082 .0831021 5.92 0.000 .3294312 .6551853 _Iarea_id_14 | -.7532676 .2289517 -3.29 0.001 -1.202005 -.3045304 _Iarea_id_15 | -.0240701 .0600073 -0.40 0.688 -.1416823 .0935421 _Iarea_id_16 | -.7989666 .241387 -3.31 0.001 -1.272077 -.3258567 _Iarea_id_17 | 1.20078 .0200699 59.83 0.000 1.161444 1.240116 _Iarea_id_18 | -.1450641 .1615028 -0.90 0.369 -.4616038 .1714757 _Iarea_id_19 | .4489257 .1598035 2.81 0.005 .1357165 .7621348 _Iarea_id_20 | -.3913343 .0652561 -6.00 0.000 -.5192339 -.2634347 _Iarea_id_21 | -.4811412 .0888049 -5.42 0.000 -.6551956 -.3070869 _Iarea_id_22 | .4699035 .0499435 9.41 0.000 .3720161 .5677909 _Iarea_id_23 | .5560903 .2203317 2.52 0.012 .1242481 .9879325 _Iarea_id_24 | .1006125 .1555482 0.65 0.518 -.2042564 .4054814 _Iarea_id_25 | .9221018 .0744489 12.39 0.000 .7761845 1.068019 _Iarea_id_26 | -.0308376 .1070888 -0.29 0.773 -.2407278 .1790526 _Iarea_id_28 | .1703414 .0806351 2.11 0.035 .0122995 .3283832 _Iarea_id_29 | .6302119 .0752142 8.38 0.000 .4827948 .777629 _Iarea_id_30 | -.770749 .2410304 -3.20 0.001 -1.24316 -.298338 _Iarea_id_31 | .6176118 .1005958 6.14 0.000 .4204477 .8147759 _Iyear_1985 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_1986 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_1987 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_1988 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_1989 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_1990 | 2.311048 .308652 7.49 0.000 1.706101 2.915995 _Iyear_1991 | 2.202969 .3075729 7.16 0.000 1.600138 2.805801 _Iyear_1992 | 1.516993 .3397724 4.46 0.000 .8510513 2.182935 _Iyear_1993 | 1.080004 .3556876 3.04 0.002 .3828691 1.777139 _Iyear_1994 | .425231 .3209109 1.33 0.185 -.2037429 1.054205 _Iyear_1995 | .0140672 .4056944 0.03 0.972 -.7810792 .8092136 _Iyear_1996 | -.3612622 .3863949 -0.93 0.350 -1.118582 .3960579 _Iyear_1997 | -.905893 .491358 -1.84 0.065 -1.868937 .057151 _Iyear_1998 | -.9949858 .5123093 -1.94 0.052 -1.999094 .0091221 _Iyear_1999 | -1.29992 .5129408 -2.53 0.011 -2.305266 -.2945747 _Iyear_2000 | -.7465474 .429945 -1.74 0.082 -1.589224 .0961294 _Iyear_2001 | -.3023936 .4708448 -0.64 0.521 -1.225232 .6204452 _Iyear_2002 | -.1358911 .4359337 -0.31 0.755 -.9903054 .7185232 _Iyear_2003 | -.972395 .4052597 -2.40 0.016 -1.766689 -.1781005 _Iyear_2004 | -.745005 .358949 -2.08 0.038 -1.448532 -.0414778 _Iyear_2005 | -.6000156 .3336741 -1.80 0.072 -1.254005 .0539736 _Iyear_2006 | -.1780117 .3496413 -0.51 0.611 -.8632961 .5072727 _Iyear_2007 | -.8253866 .4251916 -1.94 0.052 -1.658747 .0079736 _Iyear_2008 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_2009 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_2010 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_2011 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_2012 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_2013 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_2014 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_2015 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_2016 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_2017 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_2018 | 0 (omitted) _cons | 6.149448 1.4755 4.17 0.000 3.257521 9.041376 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Instrumented: ur Instruments: L.pic epi seas1 seas2 seas3 seas4 seas5 seas6 seas7 seas8 seas9 seas10 seas11 seas12 seas13 seas14 seas15 seas16 seas17 seas18 seas19 seas20 seas21 seas22 seas23 seas24 seas25 seas26 seas27 seas28 _Iarea_id_2 _Iarea_id_3 _Iarea_id_4 _Iarea_id_5 _Iarea_id_8 _Iarea_id_9 _Iarea_id_10 _Iarea_id_11 _Iarea_id_12 _Iarea_id_13 _Iarea_id_14 _Iarea_id_15 _Iarea_id_16 _Iarea_id_17 _Iarea_id_18 _Iarea_id_19 _Iarea_id_20 _Iarea_id_21 _Iarea_id_22 _Iarea_id_23 _Iarea_id_24 _Iarea_id_25 _Iarea_id_26 _Iarea_id_28 _Iarea_id_29 _Iarea_id_30 _Iarea_id_31 _Iyear_1990 _Iyear_1991 _Iyear_1992 _Iyear_1993 _Iyear_1994 _Iyear_1995 _Iyear_1996 _Iyear_1997 _Iyear_1998 _Iyear_1999 _Iyear_2000 _Iyear_2001 _Iyear_2002 _Iyear_2003 _Iyear_2004 _Iyear_2005 _Iyear_2006 _Iyear_2007 d2yrfed _IareXd2yr_2 _IareXd2yr_3 _IareXd2yr_4 _IareXd2yr_5 _IareXd2yr_8 _IareXd2yr_9 _IareXd2yr_10 _IareXd2yr_11 _IareXd2yr_12 _IareXd2yr_13 _IareXd2yr_14 _IareXd2yr_15 _IareXd2yr_16 _IareXd2yr_17 _IareXd2yr_18 _IareXd2yr_19 _IareXd2yr_20 _IareXd2yr_21 _IareXd2yr_22 _IareXd2yr_23 _IareXd2yr_24 _IareXd2yr_25 _IareXd2yr_26 _IareXd2yr_28 _IareXd2yr_29 _IareXd2yr_30 _IareXd2yr_31 . xi: ivregress 2sls pic ur l.pic epi seas1-seas28 i.area_id i.year if year<2009, vce(cl area_id) i.area_id _Iarea_id_1-31 (naturally coded; _Iarea_id_1 omitted) i.year _Iyear_1984-2018 (naturally coded; _Iyear_1984 omitted) note: _Iyear_1985 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_1986 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_1987 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_1988 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_1989 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_2008 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_2009 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_2010 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_2011 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_2012 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_2013 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_2014 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_2015 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_2016 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_2017 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_2018 omitted because of collinearity Instrumental variables (2SLS) regression Number of obs = 1021 Wald chi2(76) =30242.64 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 R-squared = 0.4979 Root MSE = 1.0897 (Std. Err. adjusted for 28 clusters in area_id) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Robust pic | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- ur | -.4635154 .0562848 -8.24 0.000 -.5738316 -.3531992 | pic | L1. | .0961282 .0392379 2.45 0.014 .0192234 .173033 | epi | -.0329313 .1862648 -0.18 0.860 -.3980035 .332141 seas1 | -.3120951 .0342231 -9.12 0.000 -.3791712 -.245019 seas2 | -1.22315 .0439609 -27.82 0.000 -1.309312 -1.136988 seas3 | -1.016243 .0397365 -25.57 0.000 -1.094125 -.9383614 seas4 | .2006824 .0197614 10.16 0.000 .1619508 .2394139 seas5 | -.6539089 .0209808 -31.17 0.000 -.6950305 -.6127873 seas6 | -.1065586 .0202188 -5.27 0.000 -.1461867 -.0669305 seas7 | -.2825944 .0122569 -23.06 0.000 -.3066176 -.2585713 seas8 | -.7681059 .0250189 -30.70 0.000 -.817142 -.7190698 seas9 | .3192525 .0198276 16.10 0.000 .280391 .3581139 seas10 | -.4373293 .0267516 -16.35 0.000 -.4897614 -.3848972 seas11 | -.6182494 .0171127 -36.13 0.000 -.6517897 -.5847091 seas12 | -1.039753 .0327356 -31.76 0.000 -1.103914 -.9755926 seas13 | -1.125149 .034731 -32.40 0.000 -1.19322 -1.057077 seas14 | -.6053132 .0176014 -34.39 0.000 -.6398114 -.570815 seas15 | -1.643123 .0613865 -26.77 0.000 -1.763439 -1.522808 seas16 | -2.158305 .0686237 -31.45 0.000 -2.292805 -2.023805 seas17 | -1.328404 .0580102 -22.90 0.000 -1.442102 -1.214707 seas18 | -.1204072 .0136841 -8.80 0.000 -.1472274 -.0935869 seas19 | -.3839867 .0165469 -23.21 0.000 -.4164181 -.3515553 seas20 | -1.751381 .0569918 -30.73 0.000 -1.863083 -1.639679 seas21 | -2.801611 .1210408 -23.15 0.000 -3.038847 -2.564375 seas22 | -1.16417 .0441225 -26.38 0.000 -1.250649 -1.077692 seas23 | -1.089911 .0360477 -30.24 0.000 -1.160563 -1.019258 seas24 | -.6799367 .0241875 -28.11 0.000 -.7273433 -.63253 seas25 | -.3646875 .0108826 -33.51 0.000 -.3860171 -.3433579 seas26 | -1.228713 .0351427 -34.96 0.000 -1.297592 -1.159835 seas27 | -.6065011 .0113326 -53.52 0.000 -.6287126 -.5842896 seas28 | -.7913219 .0488213 -16.21 0.000 -.8870099 -.695634 _Iarea_id_2 | -.0742806 .034105 -2.18 0.029 -.1411251 -.0074361 _Iarea_id_3 | -.2162762 .0538189 -4.02 0.000 -.3217593 -.1107931 _Iarea_id_4 | -.6647668 .0394998 -16.83 0.000 -.742185 -.5873485 _Iarea_id_5 | -.4861583 .0479537 -10.14 0.000 -.5801457 -.3921709 _Iarea_id_8 | .1877537 .017383 10.80 0.000 .1536836 .2218238 _Iarea_id_9 | -.1284526 .0444045 -2.89 0.004 -.2154838 -.0414214 _Iarea_id_10 | .81416 .0216695 37.57 0.000 .7716885 .8566314 _Iarea_id_11 | -.3023005 .027765 -10.89 0.000 -.3567188 -.2478821 _Iarea_id_12 | .1191988 .022432 5.31 0.000 .0752328 .1631648 _Iarea_id_13 | .4159646 .0417873 9.95 0.000 .3340629 .4978662 _Iarea_id_14 | -.5207977 .1014259 -5.13 0.000 -.7195888 -.3220065 _Iarea_id_15 | .0390245 .0317964 1.23 0.220 -.0232954 .1013444 _Iarea_id_16 | -.5577988 .1103606 -5.05 0.000 -.7741016 -.3414959 _Iarea_id_17 | 1.217803 .0173831 70.06 0.000 1.183733 1.251874 _Iarea_id_18 | .0245033 .0769291 0.32 0.750 -.1262749 .1752815 _Iarea_id_19 | .5892923 .0835228 7.06 0.000 .4255905 .752994 _Iarea_id_20 | -.3246472 .0307242 -10.57 0.000 -.3848655 -.2644289 _Iarea_id_21 | -.3878806 .0402202 -9.64 0.000 -.4667107 -.3090506 _Iarea_id_22 | .5145696 .0398945 12.90 0.000 .4363778 .5927613 _Iarea_id_23 | .7819856 .1354841 5.77 0.000 .5164416 1.04753 _Iarea_id_24 | .2587828 .0707589 3.66 0.000 .1200979 .3974678 _Iarea_id_25 | .8580022 .0407672 21.05 0.000 .7781 .9379045 _Iarea_id_26 | .07902 .049239 1.60 0.109 -.0174867 .1755267 _Iarea_id_28 | .2453591 .0457053 5.37 0.000 .1557783 .3349398 _Iarea_id_29 | .7051798 .0377574 18.68 0.000 .6311767 .779183 _Iarea_id_30 | -.5309707 .1121864 -4.73 0.000 -.7508521 -.3110894 _Iarea_id_31 | .5255978 .0502991 10.45 0.000 .4270134 .6241823 _Iyear_1985 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_1986 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_1987 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_1988 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_1989 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_1990 | 2.338533 .2876068 8.13 0.000 1.774835 2.902232 _Iyear_1991 | 2.112232 .3003973 7.03 0.000 1.523464 2.701 _Iyear_1992 | 1.409536 .335801 4.20 0.000 .751378 2.067694 _Iyear_1993 | 1.033217 .3567807 2.90 0.004 .3339396 1.732494 _Iyear_1994 | .4818412 .2947175 1.63 0.102 -.0957944 1.059477 _Iyear_1995 | .1408791 .3577623 0.39 0.694 -.5603221 .8420802 _Iyear_1996 | -.203708 .3304312 -0.62 0.538 -.8513413 .4439252 _Iyear_1997 | -.6838635 .4040666 -1.69 0.091 -1.47582 .1080926 _Iyear_1998 | -.6955613 .3873093 -1.80 0.073 -1.454674 .0635509 _Iyear_1999 | -.9786705 .4014951 -2.44 0.015 -1.765586 -.1917546 _Iyear_2000 | -.454112 .3309164 -1.37 0.170 -1.102696 .1944723 _Iyear_2001 | -.0846949 .4015753 -0.21 0.833 -.871768 .7023783 _Iyear_2002 | -.0474159 .4214057 -0.11 0.910 -.8733559 .7785241 _Iyear_2003 | -.890587 .3788789 -2.35 0.019 -1.633176 -.1479979 _Iyear_2004 | -.6260438 .3236585 -1.93 0.053 -1.260403 .0083152 _Iyear_2005 | -.4632683 .2735326 -1.69 0.090 -.9993823 .0728456 _Iyear_2006 | .0087905 .2947264 0.03 0.976 -.5688627 .5864437 _Iyear_2007 | -.6391538 .3361376 -1.90 0.057 -1.297971 .0196638 _Iyear_2008 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_2009 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_2010 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_2011 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_2012 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_2013 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_2014 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_2015 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_2016 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_2017 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_2018 | 0 (omitted) _cons | 5.082991 .9270233 5.48 0.000 3.266059 6.899923 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ (no endogenous regressors) . xi: ivregress 2sls pic (ur = i.area_id*d2yrfed) l.pic epi seas1-seas28 i.area_id i.year if year<2009, vce(cl area_id) i.area_id _Iarea_id_1-31 (naturally coded; _Iarea_id_1 omitted) i.area~d*d2yr~d _IareXd2yr_# (coded as above) i.year _Iyear_1984-2018 (naturally coded; _Iyear_1984 omitted) note: _Iyear_1985 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_1986 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_1987 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_1988 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_1989 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_2008 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_2009 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_2010 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_2011 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_2012 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_2013 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_2014 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_2015 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_2016 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_2017 omitted because of collinearity note: _Iyear_2018 omitted because of collinearity Instrumental variables (2SLS) regression Number of obs = 1021 Wald chi2(76) =13803.82 Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 R-squared = 0.4945 Root MSE = 1.0934 (Std. Err. adjusted for 28 clusters in area_id) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Robust pic | Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- ur | -.586349 .1239988 -4.73 0.000 -.8293822 -.3433159 | pic | L1. | .0703831 .0407039 1.73 0.084 -.0093952 .1501614 | epi | -.0915254 .2109047 -0.43 0.664 -.5048911 .3218402 seas1 | -.3869658 .0756373 -5.12 0.000 -.5352121 -.2387195 seas2 | -1.268344 .0598101 -21.21 0.000 -1.38557 -1.151119 seas3 | -1.042231 .0454394 -22.94 0.000 -1.131291 -.9531717 seas4 | .1611521 .0371891 4.33 0.000 .0882627 .2340414 seas5 | -.6637284 .0216616 -30.64 0.000 -.7061844 -.6212724 seas6 | -.1547587 .047214 -3.28 0.001 -.2472965 -.0622209 seas7 | -.3049348 .0240068 -12.70 0.000 -.3519874 -.2578823 seas8 | -.7785257 .026791 -29.06 0.000 -.8310352 -.7260163 seas9 | .2855869 .0335746 8.51 0.000 .2197819 .3513919 seas10 | -.4950355 .0559458 -8.85 0.000 -.6046873 -.3853838 seas11 | -.6252281 .0171405 -36.48 0.000 -.6588229 -.5916334 seas12 | -1.060358 .0367819 -28.83 0.000 -1.132449 -.9882665 seas13 | -1.133071 .0338163 -33.51 0.000 -1.19935 -1.066792 seas14 | -.6033894 .0167549 -36.01 0.000 -.6362283 -.5705504 seas15 | -1.564684 .0867344 -18.04 0.000 -1.73468 -1.394688 seas16 | -2.113282 .0722595 -29.25 0.000 -2.254908 -1.971656 seas17 | -1.249781 .0873497 -14.31 0.000 -1.420984 -1.078579 seas18 | -.1376438 .0181775 -7.57 0.000 -.173271 -.1020166 seas19 | -.3834496 .0156764 -24.46 0.000 -.4141748 -.3527245 seas20 | -1.713381 .0604955 -28.32 0.000 -1.83195 -1.594812 seas21 | -2.693095 .1407582 -19.13 0.000 -2.968976 -2.417214 seas22 | -1.17409 .0441855 -26.57 0.000 -1.260692 -1.087488 seas23 | -1.049752 .045722 -22.96 0.000 -1.139365 -.9601383 seas24 | -.6584494 .0275311 -23.92 0.000 -.7124094 -.6044895 seas25 | -.3757097 .0153761 -24.43 0.000 -.4058464 -.345573 seas26 | -1.188893 .0449862 -26.43 0.000 -1.277065 -1.100722 seas27 | -.5932924 .0146346 -40.54 0.000 -.6219756 -.5646091 seas28 | -.8756608 .0921159 -9.51 0.000 -1.056205 -.6951169 _Iarea_id_2 | -.13998 .0627646 -2.23 0.026 -.2629964 -.0169636 _Iarea_id_3 | -.3424511 .1205131 -2.84 0.004 -.5786524 -.1062498 _Iarea_id_4 | -.7522619 .0860405 -8.74 0.000 -.9208982 -.5836256 _Iarea_id_5 | -.597948 .106556 -5.61 0.000 -.8067939 -.3891022 _Iarea_id_8 | .2006188 .0203398 9.86 0.000 .1607535 .2404842 _Iarea_id_9 | -.218911 .093345 -2.35 0.019 -.4018638 -.0359581 _Iarea_id_10 | .8646028 .0497626 17.37 0.000 .7670699 .9621358 _Iarea_id_11 | -.3390933 .0443859 -7.64 0.000 -.426088 -.2520986 _Iarea_id_12 | .1661614 .0494266 3.36 0.001 .069287 .2630357 _Iarea_id_13 | .4923082 .0831021 5.92 0.000 .3294312 .6551853 _Iarea_id_14 | -.7532676 .2289517 -3.29 0.001 -1.202005 -.3045304 _Iarea_id_15 | -.0240701 .0600073 -0.40 0.688 -.1416823 .0935421 _Iarea_id_16 | -.7989666 .241387 -3.31 0.001 -1.272077 -.3258567 _Iarea_id_17 | 1.20078 .0200699 59.83 0.000 1.161444 1.240116 _Iarea_id_18 | -.1450641 .1615028 -0.90 0.369 -.4616038 .1714757 _Iarea_id_19 | .4489257 .1598035 2.81 0.005 .1357165 .7621348 _Iarea_id_20 | -.3913343 .0652561 -6.00 0.000 -.5192339 -.2634347 _Iarea_id_21 | -.4811412 .0888049 -5.42 0.000 -.6551956 -.3070869 _Iarea_id_22 | .4699035 .0499435 9.41 0.000 .3720161 .5677909 _Iarea_id_23 | .5560903 .2203317 2.52 0.012 .1242481 .9879325 _Iarea_id_24 | .1006125 .1555482 0.65 0.518 -.2042564 .4054814 _Iarea_id_25 | .9221018 .0744489 12.39 0.000 .7761845 1.068019 _Iarea_id_26 | -.0308376 .1070888 -0.29 0.773 -.2407278 .1790526 _Iarea_id_28 | .1703414 .0806351 2.11 0.035 .0122995 .3283832 _Iarea_id_29 | .6302119 .0752142 8.38 0.000 .4827948 .777629 _Iarea_id_30 | -.770749 .2410304 -3.20 0.001 -1.24316 -.298338 _Iarea_id_31 | .6176118 .1005958 6.14 0.000 .4204477 .8147759 _Iyear_1985 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_1986 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_1987 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_1988 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_1989 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_1990 | 2.311048 .308652 7.49 0.000 1.706101 2.915995 _Iyear_1991 | 2.202969 .3075729 7.16 0.000 1.600138 2.805801 _Iyear_1992 | 1.516993 .3397724 4.46 0.000 .8510513 2.182935 _Iyear_1993 | 1.080004 .3556876 3.04 0.002 .3828691 1.777139 _Iyear_1994 | .425231 .3209109 1.33 0.185 -.2037429 1.054205 _Iyear_1995 | .0140672 .4056944 0.03 0.972 -.7810792 .8092136 _Iyear_1996 | -.3612622 .3863949 -0.93 0.350 -1.118582 .3960579 _Iyear_1997 | -.905893 .491358 -1.84 0.065 -1.868937 .057151 _Iyear_1998 | -.9949858 .5123093 -1.94 0.052 -1.999094 .0091221 _Iyear_1999 | -1.29992 .5129408 -2.53 0.011 -2.305266 -.2945747 _Iyear_2000 | -.7465474 .429945 -1.74 0.082 -1.589224 .0961294 _Iyear_2001 | -.3023936 .4708448 -0.64 0.521 -1.225232 .6204452 _Iyear_2002 | -.1358911 .4359337 -0.31 0.755 -.9903054 .7185232 _Iyear_2003 | -.972395 .4052597 -2.40 0.016 -1.766689 -.1781005 _Iyear_2004 | -.745005 .358949 -2.08 0.038 -1.448532 -.0414778 _Iyear_2005 | -.6000156 .3336741 -1.80 0.072 -1.254005 .0539736 _Iyear_2006 | -.1780117 .3496413 -0.51 0.611 -.8632961 .5072727 _Iyear_2007 | -.8253866 .4251916 -1.94 0.052 -1.658747 .0079736 _Iyear_2008 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_2009 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_2010 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_2011 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_2012 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_2013 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_2014 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_2015 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_2016 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_2017 | 0 (omitted) _Iyear_2018 | 0 (omitted) _cons | 6.149448 1.4755 4.17 0.000 3.257521 9.041376 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Instrumented: ur Instruments: L.pic epi seas1 seas2 seas3 seas4 seas5 seas6 seas7 seas8 seas9 seas10 seas11 seas12 seas13 seas14 seas15 seas16 seas17 seas18 seas19 seas20 seas21 seas22 seas23 seas24 seas25 seas26 seas27 seas28 _Iarea_id_2 _Iarea_id_3 _Iarea_id_4 _Iarea_id_5 _Iarea_id_8 _Iarea_id_9 _Iarea_id_10 _Iarea_id_11 _Iarea_id_12 _Iarea_id_13 _Iarea_id_14 _Iarea_id_15 _Iarea_id_16 _Iarea_id_17 _Iarea_id_18 _Iarea_id_19 _Iarea_id_20 _Iarea_id_21 _Iarea_id_22 _Iarea_id_23 _Iarea_id_24 _Iarea_id_25 _Iarea_id_26 _Iarea_id_28 _Iarea_id_29 _Iarea_id_30 _Iarea_id_31 _Iyear_1990 _Iyear_1991 _Iyear_1992 _Iyear_1993 _Iyear_1994 _Iyear_1995 _Iyear_1996 _Iyear_1997 _Iyear_1998 _Iyear_1999 _Iyear_2000 _Iyear_2001 _Iyear_2002 _Iyear_2003 _Iyear_2004 _Iyear_2005 _Iyear_2006 _Iyear_2007 d2yrfed _IareXd2yr_2 _IareXd2yr_3 _IareXd2yr_4 _IareXd2yr_5 _IareXd2yr_8 _IareXd2yr_9 _IareXd2yr_10 _IareXd2yr_11 _IareXd2yr_12 _IareXd2yr_13 _IareXd2yr_14 _IareXd2yr_15 _IareXd2yr_16 _IareXd2yr_17 _IareXd2yr_18 _IareXd2yr_19 _IareXd2yr_20 _IareXd2yr_21 _IareXd2yr_22 _IareXd2yr_23 _IareXd2yr_24 _IareXd2yr_25 _IareXd2yr_26 _IareXd2yr_28 _IareXd2yr_29 _IareXd2yr_30 _IareXd2yr_31 . do "C:\Users\320491\Desktop\Final NBER\bartik_regressions.do" . *Options . set more off . capture log close