Inflation lags (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) VARIABLES LABELS Core CPI inflation Core CPI inflation Core CPI inflation Core CPI inflation Core CPI inflation Core CPI inflation Core CPI inflation ur Unemployment rate -0.162*** -0.316*** -0.379*** -0.516 0.140 -0.582 -0.293 [0.019] [0.090] [0.052] [0.439] [1.687] [0.446] [0.225] pic Core CPI inflation lpic First lag 0.371*** 0.324*** 0.105*** 0.075 0.220 0.060 0.110* [0.036] [0.047] [0.034] [0.103] [0.380] [0.105] [0.060] epi 1 year ahead inflation expectations 0.589*** 0.651*** 0.225 0.215 0.264 0.210 0.198 [0.059] [0.073] [0.141] [0.147] [0.219] [0.150] [0.140] Observations 1,525 1,525 1,525 1,525 1,525 1,525 1,413 R-squared 0.350 0.320 0.487 0.481 0.406 0.475 0.489 Metro area FE Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Year FE No No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Seasonal dummies Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Instrument n/a 3 year Bartik n/a 3 year Bartik 3 year Bartik 3 year Bartik 6 leads and lags of Bartik 1st stage F-stat n/a 27 n/a 5.7 .3 4.9 5.5 Robust standard errors in brackets *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1