Currency Crises: Lessons From Mexico
PROGRAM
The Charles Hotel, Cambridge, MA
Martin Feldstein and Aaron Tornell, Organizers
WEDNESDAY, MAY 5, 1999:
7:30 PM Dinner
Sandrine's
8 Holyoke Street
Cambridge, MA
(617) 497-5300
THURSDAY, MAY 6, 1999:
8:30 AM Continental Breakfast
9:00 AM SESSION I. THE 1982 CRISIS AND THE SEEDS OF THE 1994 CRISIS
Chair: STEPHEN CECCHETTI, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and NBER
Panelists: ARTURO FERNANDEZ, ITAM
FRANCISCO GIL DIAZ, Avantel
ANNE KRUEGER, Stanford University and NBER
ROBERTO MENDOZA, J.P. Morgan
Lessons from the privatization and deregulation episodes.
Links between banks' privatization, financial deregulation, the banking regulatory framework and the 1994 crisis.
Was the form that capital inflows took responsible for the 1994 crisis?
Was the lending boom that preceded the 1994 crisis inevitable?
10:30 AM Coffee Break
11:00 AM SESSION II. ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS IN 1994
Chair: MARTIN FELDSTEIN, Harvard University and NBER
Panelists: ANDREW BERG, International Monetary Fund
AGUSTIN CARSTENS, Bank of Mexico
PETER GARBER, Brown University and NBER
PACO YBARRA, Citicorp
Policy response to the negative shocks of early 1994.
Monetary and fiscal policy during 1994.
Off-balance sheet operations of banks and firms.
Was the crisis unavoidable?
12:30 PM Lunch
Regattabar
2:00 PM SESSION III. DEVELOPMENTS SINCE 1995
Chair: ANNE KRUEGER, Stanford University and NBER
Panelists: PATRICIA ARMENDARIZ, National Banking Commission
AGUSTIN CARSTENS, Bank of Mexico
ALFREDO THORNE, J.P. Morgan
AARON TORNELL, Harvard University and NBER
Why was the recovery in Mexico faster than in South East Asia?
Rescue of the banks: was the piecemeal strategy the right strategy?
Is the banking problem over?
Performance of the floating exchange rate regime since 1995.
3:30 PM Coffee Break
3:45 PM SESSION IV. THE MEXICAN EXPERIENCE IN PERSPECTIVE
Chair: AARON TORNELL, Harvard University and NBER
Panelists: RICARDO HAUSMANN, Inter-American Development Bank
PABLO LEME, Goldman Sachs
LILIANA ROJAS-SUAREZ, Deutsche Bank
PABLO SALAME, Goldman Sachs
MARTIN WERNER, Secretaria de Hacienda y Credito Publico
Lessons regarding inflation targeting and exchange rate regimes.
In what respects are the Mexican and Brazilian experiences alike?
Lessons regarding deregulation of the financial sector.
Lessons regarding the desirability and implementability of capital controls.
5:15 PM Adjourn
6:00 PM Reception and Dinner
Charles Hotel
Lowell Room
Discussion: Prospects for the Future
Conference Materials
JEFFREY SACHS and AARON TORNELL, Harvard University and NBER
ANDRES VELASCO, New York University and NBER
The Collapse of the Mexican Peso: What Have We Learned?
RUDIGER DORNBUSCH, MIT and NBER
ALEJANDRO WERNER, MIT
Mexico: Stabilization, Reform and No Growth
AARON TORNELL, Harvard University and NBER
Are Economic Crises Necessary for Trade Liberalization and Fiscal Reform?
The Mexican Experience
SEBASTIAN EDWARDS, UC, Los Angeles and NBER
The Mexican Peso Crisis: How Much Did We Know? When Did We Know It?
ANNE KRUEGER, Stanford University and NBER
AARON TORNELL, Harvard University and NBER
The Role of Bank Restructuring From Crises: Mexico 1995-98
SEBASTIAN EDWARDS, UC, Los Angeles and NBER
MIGUEL A. SAVASTANO, International Monetary Fund
The Morning After: The Mexican Peso in the Aftermath of the 1994 Currency Crisis
AGUSTIN CARSTENS and ALEJANDRO WERNER, Banco de Mexico
Mexico's Monetary Policy Framework under a Floating
Exchange Rate Regime
5/5/99