{"totalResults":35697,"results":[{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/koichiro_ito\">Koichiro Ito<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/james_sallee\">James M. Sallee<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/andrew_smith_1\">Jonathan (Andrew) Smith<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"How should policymakers evaluate policy impacts when firms design products for global markets? Standard economic analyses typically focus on domestic outcomes, implicitly assuming that policies affect only the jurisdiction in which they are enacted. Yet multinational firms often harmonize product","newthisweek":true,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1306763","title":"Global Policy Spillovers: How Environmental Policies Propagate through Product Attributes","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35197","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1306763:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/william_cong\">Lin William Cong<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/ke_tang\">Ke Tang<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/jingyuan_wang_2\">Jingyuan Wang<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"We adapt attention-based neural networks and reinforcement learning to direct portfolio construction, allowing broader portfolio-management objectives (including non-time-additively separable ones) and in a data-driven way, searching over a much richer policy\/strategy space than low-dimensional","newthisweek":true,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1306764","title":"AlphaPortfolio: Goal-Oriented Investment Management Through Deep Reinforcement Learning","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35195","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1306764:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/scott_brave\">Scott A. Brave<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/ecrust\">Erin E. Crust<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/stefano_eusepi\">Stefano Eusepi<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/bart_hobijn\">Bart Hobijn<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/aysegul_sahin\">Ay\u015feg\u00fcl \u015eahin<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"Interpreting real-time labor market conditions is challenging because commonly used indicators are noisy, revised over time, and often send conflicting signals. In practice, policymakers and market participants describe labor market developments using a shared narrative language centered on labor","newthisweek":true,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1306770","title":"Making Sense of Labor Market Indicators Amid Data Imperfections","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35196","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1306770:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/robert_kaestner\">Robert Kaestner<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/cuiping_schiman\">Cuiping Schiman<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"In this article, we exploit the recent, rapid diffusion of the use of GLP-1 drugs among individuals with diabetes to measure the effect of the use of these drugs on mental health, self-rated health, employment, and marriage. The documented large weight loss from GLP-1 use may plausibly affect these","newthisweek":true,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1306772","title":"The Effects of GLP-1 Use on Mental Health, Self-rated Health, Employment and Marriage","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35198","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1306772:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/xiao_ma\">Xiao Ma<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/alejandro_nakab\">Alejandro Nakab<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/daniela_vidart\">Daniela Vidart<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"How do the sources of worker learning change over the lifecycle, and how does this affect human capital and wages? Using data from Germany and the US, we document that internal learning (from coworkers) decreases with experience, while external learning (on-the-job training) follows an inverted U","newthisweek":true,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1306773","title":"How do Workers Learn? Theory and Evidence on the Roots of Lifecycle Human Capital Accumulation","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35199","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1306773:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/sebastian_edwards\">Sebastian Edwards<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"In this paper I examine Chiles 1972 initiative to draft a new constitution under President Salvador Allende. I analyze the political and economic circumstances that gave rise to the project and the institutional mechanisms through which the draft sought to advance a socialist economic and political","newthisweek":true,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1306774","title":"Credibility and Precommitment in Socialist Constitutionalism","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35200","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1306774:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/isabel_figuerola-ferretti\">Isabel Figuerola-Ferretti<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/eduardo_schwartz\">Eduardo S. Schwartz<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"Hydropower is a renewable and flexible energy source that provides essential storage capacity and enhances grid stability. Among storage technologies, pumped hydro energy storage (PHES) remains the most cost-effective solution for long-duration energy storage and plays a key role in power systems","newthisweek":true,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1306775","title":"Intertemporal Arbitrage and Optimal Operation of Pumped Hydro Energy Storage","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35201","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1306775:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/stefano_carattini\">Stefano Carattini<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/garth_heutel\">Garth Heutel<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/givi_melkadze\">Givi Melkadze<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/ines_mourelon\">In\u00e8s Mourelon<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"We study how climate policy can interact with distortionary fiscal policy and potentially lead to transition risk. Using an environmental dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model that features financial frictions and preexisting labor and capital taxes, we simulate a carbon tax and an abatement","newthisweek":true,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1306776","title":"Fiscal Policy and Transition Risk","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35202","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1306776:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/benjamin_sprung-keyser\">Ben Sprung-Keyser<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/sonya_porter\">Sonya Porter<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"We examine how place shapes the production of human capital across the lifecycle. We ask: do those places that most effectively produce human capital in childhood also have local labor markets that do so in adulthood? We consider the following determinants of wages across place: 1) location-specific","newthisweek":true,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1306777","title":"The Geography of Lifecycle Human Capital Accumulation","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35203","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1306777:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/suvyq1\">Suvy Qin<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/john_voorheis\">John L. Voorheis<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"Flooding is among the most salient natural hazards facing households in the United States. A large body of evidence has documented a pattern of disproportionate social vulnerability in floodplains. However, little evidence exists on how household-level exposure to flood risk is distributed. We fill","newthisweek":true,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1306779","title":"Flood Risk, Insurance, and Housing in the United States","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35204","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1306779:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/winston_wei_dou\">Winston Wei Dou<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/wei_wang\">Wei Wang<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/wenyu_wang\">Wenyu Wang<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"Distressed firms need urgent financing to preserve operations and avoid inefficient liquidation, but they borrow in concentrated markets shaped by existing-creditor blocking power and a small group of specialized lenders. We show that these borrowers pay exceptionally high loan spreads even after","newthisweek":true,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1306781","title":"The Cost of Intermediary Market Power for Distressed Borrowers","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35206","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1306781:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/joshua_gans\">Joshua S. Gans<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/l_gius\">Luca Gius<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"How should an organisation choose the breadth of its experimentation portfolio? Breadth has two distinct marginsthe number of paths kept alive, and the degree of contrast among themand prior research has largely studied them in isolation. We bring them into a single framework and show that they need","newthisweek":true,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1306782","title":"More Paths or More Contrast? A Theory of Experimentation Breadth","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35207","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1306782:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/brandon_pecoraro\">Brandon Pecoraro<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/nchoffma\">Nicholas C. Hoffman<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/martin_lopezdaneri\">Martin Lopez-Daneri<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/elena_derby\">Elena C. Derby<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/rachel_moore\">Rachel Moore<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/shannon_sledz\">Shannon E. Sledz<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"Using a panel of confidential corporate tax returns, we provide the first direct estimates of the realized present value of corporate tax benefits from R&D credits and deductions in the United States. Realized tax benefits can deviate from statutory tax benefits because firms in loss status are","newthisweek":true,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1306784","title":"Estimating the Present Value of R&D Tax Benefits in the United States","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35208","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1306784:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/dwight_anderson\">D. Mark Anderson<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/kerwin_charles\">Kerwin Kofi Charles<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/daniel_rees\">Daniel I. Rees<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"Whether medical innovation exacerbates or reduces racial health disparities remains an open question. We study surfactant replacement therapy (SRT), a life-saving intervention for premature infants with respiratory disorders. Before its approval by the FDA in 1989, premature Black infants were much","newthisweek":true,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1306786","title":"Medical Innovation and Racial Health Disparities: Evidence from a Breakthrough Treatment","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35210","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1306786:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/joshua_gans\">Joshua S. Gans<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"Empirical measures of AI's wage effect typically hold fixed the bundle of activities a worker is paid for at its pre-AI shape. We argue that this assumption hides much of the action. When automation breaks a job apart, firms decide how to recombine the surviving activities; whether they rebundle","newthisweek":true,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1306787","title":"Endogenous Task Bundling, Skills and Automation","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35211","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1306787:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/ruben_gaetani\">Ruben Gaetani<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/alex_whalley\">Alexander T. Whalley<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"The emergence of firms like SpaceX and Blue Origin has made space a leading example of how private enterprise drives innovation, marking what many see as a sharp break between Old Space and New Space. Yet little systematic evidence documents when the transition to this new phase of space innovation","newthisweek":true,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1306788","title":"Old Space, New Space: A Commercial Revolution in Innovation?","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35212","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1306788:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/mahdi_ebsim_1\">Al-Mahdi Ebsim<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/chen_lian\">Chen Lian<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/yueran_ma\">Yueran Ma<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/pablo_ottonello\">Pablo Ottonello<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/diego_perez\">Diego J. Perez<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"In traditional macro-finance models, firms' debt contracts impose hard borrowing constraints, which require indiscriminate reductions of borrowing and investment when adverse shocks tighten these limits, giving rise to financial acceleration. We study the macroeconomic implications of \"sophisticated","newthisweek":true,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1306789","title":"Sophisticated Borrowing Constraints and Macroeconomic Dynamics","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35213","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1306789:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/pedro_bordalo\">Pedro Bordalo<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/nicola_gennaioli\">Nicola Gennaioli<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/florencio_lopezdesilanes\">Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/simonschroeder\">Simon G. Schr\u00f6der<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/andrei_shleifer\">Andrei Shleifer<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/maarten_van-rooij\">Maarten van Rooij<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"We present a model of animal spirits in which context and emotions affect macroeconomic beliefs by shaping which experiences people recall to simulate similar future aggregate states. We test this mechanism by priming Dutch National Bank Survey respondents to recall personal financial or health","newthisweek":true,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1306790","title":"The Psychology of Macroeconomic Expectations","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35214","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1306790:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/josephine_gantois\">Jos\u00e9phine Gantois<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/anouch\">Anouch Missirian<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/evelinalinnros\">Evelina Linnros<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/anna_tompsett\">Anna Tompsett<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/amir_jina\">Amir Jina<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/gordon_mccord\">Gordon C. McCord<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/eyal_frank\">Eyal G. Frank<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"Monitoring systems for disaster prevention are costly, and measuring benefits is difficult when monitoring effort is endogenous. We provide the first causal estimate of one such system's impact using three decades of desert locust monitoring data. We document conflict-induced interruptions to","newthisweek":true,"certifiedrandom":true,"nid":"1306791","title":"Valuing Disaster Prevention: Desert Locust Monitoring and Control","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35215","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1306791:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/sebastian_galiani\">Sebastian Galiani<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/franco_mettola_la_giglia\">Franco Mettola La Giglia<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/raul_sosa\">Raul A. Sosa<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"Public summaries of IPCC climate assessments lean toward the more severe end of the technical evidence. The pattern appears at two stages: the IPCCs lead authors and member governments produce the Summary for Policymakers (SPM) from the Technical Summary (TS), and newspapers then cover the SPM. We","newthisweek":true,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1306792","title":"Divergence in Climate Change Communication: LLM-Based Evidence from the IPCC and the Press","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35216","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1306792:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/vnarasimhan\">Veda Narasimhan<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/jeffrey_weaver\">Jeffrey Weaver<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"Political inclusion is widely believed to improve governance, motivating the creation of elected representatives for highly localized constituencies. This paper studies 1.2 million \"hyperlocal\" representatives across 150,000 local governments in rural India. Exploiting discontinuities that determine","newthisweek":true,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1306793","title":"The Limits of Political Representation: Evidence from India","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35217","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1306793:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/ariel_binder\">Ariel J. Binder<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/max_risch\">Max Risch<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/john_voorheis\">John L. Voorheis<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"We provide new county-level estimates of intergenerational mobility, covering multiple economic concepts: total income, labor income, homeownership, housing wealth, and total wealth. This is possible via small-area estimation techniques and linked survey and administrative data covering millions of","newthisweek":true,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1306795","title":"Lands of Opportunity: Differences in the Geography of Wealth and Income Mobility in the United States","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35219","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1306795:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/maya_haran\">Maya Haran Rosen<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/annamaria_lusardi\">Annamaria Lusardi<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/olivia_mitchell\">Olivia S. Mitchell<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"We extend the literature on the importance of trust for financial behaviors by examining trust, financial literacy, and financial behavior related to retirement security. Using the Health and Retirement Study, we show that Trust in Financial Institutions aligns with behaviors supportive of","newthisweek":true,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1307542","title":"Trust, Financial Literacy, and Financial Behaviors: Shaping Retirement Security","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35220","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1307542:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/robert_metcalfe\">Robert D. Metcalfe<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/asollaci\">Alexandre B. Sollaci<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/chad_syverson\">Chad Syverson<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"Mergers are commonly evaluated by weighing their expected market power effects against any efficiency gains they create. The larger the market power effect of a proposed merger, the larger must be any efficiencies for it to raise social welfare. We show selection into merger proposal distorts the","newthisweek":true,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1307559","title":"Proposed Mergers Where Efficiencies Are Needed Most Might Be the Least Likely to Deliver Them","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35221","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1307559:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/adrienne_lucas\">Adrienne Lucas<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/patrick_mcewan\">Patrick McEwan<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"In 19651966, Chile built and staffed thousands of new primary classrooms in supply-constrained communities. Using a quasi-experimental design and large census samples, we show that childhood exposure to school construction substantially improved the schooling and labor market outcomes of adults and","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1282992","title":"Building Opportunity: The Intergenerational Effects of Chilean School Construction","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35042","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1282992:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/kirill_rudov\">Kirill Rudov<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/fedor_sandomirskiy\">Fedor Sandomirskiy<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/leeat_yariv\">Leeat Yariv<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"Correlated equilibria arise naturally when agents communicate or rely on intermediaries such as recommendation systems. We study when a given Nash equilibrium can be improved within the set of correlated equilibria for general objectives. Our key insight is a detail-free criterion: any Nash","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1301951","title":"Extreme Equilibria: The Benefits of Correlation","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35170","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1301951:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/joshua_gans\">Joshua S. Gans<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/scott_kominers\">Scott Duke Kominers<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"When do university grades permit informative comparisons across courses, and how does transcript adjustment affect student and instructor incentives? A raw grade mixes student performance with course-specific conditions, so grade-only comparisons fail whenever course effects are large enough to","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":true,"nid":"1301952","title":"What Does A Grade Mean? Informativeness and Strategic Manipulation of Grading Systems","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35183","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1301952:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/gloriadou\">Jialu (Gloria) Dou<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/rania_gihleb\">Rania Gihleb<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/osea_giuntella\">Osea Giuntella<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/kubo148\">Jakub Lonsky<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"We examine the impact of Californias Senate Bill 328 (SB 328), the first statewide mandate requiring later school start times for middle and high schools, on adolescent sleep, mental health, and academic outcomes. Using difference-in-differences and eventstudy designs across five data sources, we","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1301957","title":"Breaking the Early Bell: Lessons from the First Statewide Mandate on School Start Times","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35184","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1301957:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/teresa_fort\">Teresa C. Fort<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/nathan_goldschlag\">Nathan Goldschlag<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/jack__liang\">Jack Liang<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/peter_schott\">Peter K. Schott<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/nikolas_zolas\">Nikolas Zolas<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"Relatively flat US productivity growth versus rising R&D expenditures is often interpreted as evidence that ideas are getting harder to find. We build a new 45-year panel tracking the universe of US firms' patenting to investigate the micro underpinnings of this conclusion, separately examining the","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1301958","title":"Growth is Getting Harder to Find, Not Ideas","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35182","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1301958:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/aroonk\">Aroon Narayanan<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/tavneet_suri\">Tavneet Suri<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/prashant_bharadwaj\">Prashant Bharadwaj<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"We study Kenyas 2016 interest-rate regulation, which capped bank lending rates but left one digital platform, called M-Shwari, exempt on the lending side while imposing a deposit-rate floor across all lenders in the market. Using borrower-level administrative data, survey data, and an RD around the","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1301959","title":"Interest Rate Caps, Competition, and Strategic Borrowing: Evidence from Kenya","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35166","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1301959:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/wulong_gu\">Wulong Gu<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/alla_lileeva\">Alla Lileeva<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/daniel_trefler\">Daniel Trefler<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"Conventional wisdom holds that offshoring intermediates to China stimulates innovation. This is not entirely compelling. On the one hand, (a) offshoring lowers marginal costs and expands sales, thereby increasing the returns to innovation, especially for large firms. On the other hand, (b)","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1301960","title":"On the Negative Consequences of Low-Wage Offshoring for Innovation","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35167","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1301960:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/anton_cheremukhin\">Anton Cheremukhin<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/sewon_hur\">Sewon Hur<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/ronmau\">Ronald R. Mau<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/karel_mertens\">Karel Mertens<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/alexander_w_richter\">Alexander W. Richter<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/xiaoqing__zhou\">Xiaoqing Zhou<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"The U.S. experienced an extraordinary surge in immigration from 2021 to 2024, which triggered widespread discussions about its macroeconomic impact, particularly on inflation. To determine the impact of the immigration surge, we first document the salient features of these new immigrants: they are","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1301962","title":"The Postpandemic U.S. Immigration Surge: New Facts and Inflationary Implications","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35168","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1301962:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/alex_chan\">Alex Chan<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/ayushg12\">Ayush Gupta<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/yetong1900\">Yetong Xu<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"Cadaveric organ shortages leave thousands without life-saving transplants each year. Countries differ in using opt-in (informed consent) or opt-out (presumed consent) systems for donor registration. Using newly assembled cross-country panel data and an event-study design, this paper provides","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1301963","title":"Opt In? Opt Out?","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35169","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1301963:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/joshua_gans\">Joshua S. Gans<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"Entrepreneurs learn by experimenting, but experiment choices are often public. A closed beta, private pilot, or public launch not only generates evidence; it also reveals what kind of entrepreneur would choose that action. We develop a dynamic model in which a founder chooses between stealthy and","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1301965","title":"Competitive Exposure and Entrepreneurial Experimentation","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35172","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1301965:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/marion_aouad\">Marion Aouad<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/liam_rose\">Liam Rose<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/toddwagner\">Todd Wagner<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"We examine how Medicare affects health care utilization for those who age in with a more narrow health insurance network by studying veterans enrolled in the Veterans Health Administration (VA). Given the limited geographic density of VA hospitals, we posit that Medicare expands the insurance","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1301966","title":"How does Medicare Eligibility affect Choice and Utilization? Evidence from Veterans","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35173","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1301966:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/ali_abboud\">Ali Abboud<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/samuel_bazzi\">Samuel Bazzi<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/serena_canaan\">Serena Canaan<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/antoine_deeb\">Antoine Deeb<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/pmouganie\">Pierre Mouganie<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"This paper examines how authority figures in higher education shape gender norms over the long run. We exploit the random assignment of first-year students to faculty advisors at an elite university in the Middle East and combine administrative records with an alumni survey measuring gender","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1301967","title":"Authority Figures and the Polarization of Gender Norms","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35174","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1301967:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/marthaelenadr\">Martha Elena Delgado Rojas<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/juan_herreno_lopera\">Juan Herre\u00f1o<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/mahofste\">Marc Hofstetter<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/mpedemonte\">Mathieu Pedemonte<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"We construct a novel measure of one-year-ahead exchange rate forecasts and nowcasts for non-financial firms. We then study a randomized information intervention that provides a subset of firms with a publicly available exchange rate forecast. This information treatment persistently shifts exchange","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1301968","title":"The Causal Effects of Expected Depreciations","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35175","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1301968:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/will_rafey\">Will Rafey<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"This paper proposes and applies new methods to value water rights and assess misallocation across competing uses in California, the worlds fourth largest economy. The empirical strategy combines detailed microdata on farms, evapotranspiration, historical water rights, and the hydrological flow","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1301969","title":"Measuring Water Misallocation in California","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35176","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1301969:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/caue_de_castro_dobbin\">Cau\u00ea Dobbin<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/daniel_fernandez\">Daniel Fernandez<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/tom_zohar\">Tom Zohar<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"A well-known empirical regularity is that high-productivity firms have lower worker separation rates, but it is unclear whether this pattern reflects quits or layoffs. Using matched employer-employee data from Brazil that distinguish the reason for each separation, we show that the productivity","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1301970","title":"Separations Revisited: Do Layoffs or Quits Drive Lower Separation Rates in High-Quality Firms?","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35177","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1301970:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/zhiguo_he\">Zhiguo He<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/wenxi_jiang\">Wenxi Jiang<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/wei_xiong\">Wei Xiong<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"We investigate the relationship between stock prices and future earnings in China's A-share market. In the cross-section, firms with higher market valuations report higher earnings over the subsequent one to five years, suggesting that stock prices contain information about future fundamentals. In","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1301971","title":"Earnings Management and Price Informativeness","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35178","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1301971:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/cc107\">Clara Chambers<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/benjamin_goldman\">Benjamin Goldman<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/jwinkelm\">Joseph Winkelmann<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"Over the past half-century, U.S. four-year colleges have shifted from enrolling mostly men to enrolling mostly women, while the economic position of non-college men has weakened markedly. We examine how these changes correspond with the evolving structure of marriage markets across cohorts and","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1301972","title":"Bachelors Without Bachelor's: Gender Gaps in Education and Declining Marriage Rates","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35179","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1301972:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/henry_saffer\">Henry Saffer<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"This paper is the first to examine the causal effects of school smartphone bans on the mental health of youth in the US. Time series data show that the mental health of youth has been declining for the past decade. Several researchers argue that easy access to social media and other internet sites","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1301973","title":"Youth Mental Health and School Smartphone Bans: Early Evidence","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35181","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1301973:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/eric_chyn\">Eric Chyn<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/kcohen\">Katherine Cohen<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/kareem_haggag\">Kareem Haggag<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/bryan_stuart\">Bryan A. Stuart<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"In the United States, long hailed as the land of opportunity, is access to political office truly open across society, or do the most privileged children disproportionately rise to enter political life? This question speaks to a longstanding concern that elite families may entrench themselves in","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1301974","title":"The Persistence of Power: How Family Origins Shape Political Representation and Policy","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35180","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1301974:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/omar_abdel_haq\">Omar Abdel Haq<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/amitabh_chandra\">Amitabh Chandra<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/tomas_jagelka\">Tom\u00e1\u0161 Jagelka<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/erzo_luttmer\">Erzo F.P. Luttmer<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/joshua_schwartzstein\">Joshua Schwartzstein<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"Large Language Models (LLMs) are trained on a prodigious corpus of human writing and may reveal human preferences over characteristics of life courses, such as income, longevity, and working conditions. We present OpenAI's GPT-5.4 and a broadly representative sample of Americans with pairs of life","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1302360","title":"Revealing Life Preferences Through LLMs","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35185","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1302360:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/sebastian_bell\">Sebastian Bell<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/ali_kakhbod\">Ali Kakhbod<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/martin_lettau\">Martin Lettau<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/abdolreza_nazemi\">Abdolreza Nazemi<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"We propose AlphaGlass, an inherently interpretable machine-learning framework for constructing portfolios that directly optimize investment objectives. AlphaGlass maps stock characteristics into additive signals with sparse interactions and converts these signals into long-short portfolios through a","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1302367","title":"AlphaGlass: Interpretable Characteristic-Based Portfolio Choice","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35186","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1302367:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/jun_chen\">Jun Chen<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/song_ma\">Song Ma<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/feng_zhang_1\">Feng Zhang<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"This paper examines how anti-harassment legal reforms that weaken non-disclosure agreements (NDAs) in cases of workplace sexual harassment affect startups' hiring and organizational decisions. Using a staggered difference-in-differences design and LinkedIn data on over 50,000 U.S. venture-capital","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1302368","title":"Anti-Harassment Policy and the Startup Labor Market","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35187","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1302368:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/safonso\">Santiago Afonso<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/sebastian_galiani\">Sebastian Galiani<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/ramiro_galvez\">Ramiro H. G\u00e1lvez<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/raul_sosa\">Raul A. Sosa<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"Constructing datasets from primary sources is one of the costliest tasks in empirical economics. We propose Deep Research on a Loop (DRIL), a methodology that uses AI agents to assemble datasets from publicly available sources. DRIL applies a fixed research instrument across a mapped unit space (e.g","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1302369","title":"Deep Research on a Loop: Using AI Agents to Construct Economic Datasets","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35188","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1302369:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/itzhak_bendavid\">Itzhak Ben-David<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/alexander_chinco\">Alex Chinco<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"The Campbell and Shiller (1988) log-linear approximation is widely viewed as a model-free accounting identity that always holds: in sample, in expectation, and under arbitrary subjective beliefs. None of these claims is true. The formula is far from automatic even in realized data. Many companies do","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1302370","title":"Crimes Against Campbell-Shiller","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35189","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1302370:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/jeffrey_clemens\">Jeffrey Clemens<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/anwitamahajan\">Anwita Mahajan<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/joseph_sabia\">Joseph J. Sabia<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"Adjustment frictions can cause the long-run effects of social insurance reforms to differ from their short-run effects. Using pre-committed extensions of event study specifications applied previously for short-run analyses, we test the hypothesis that the Affordable Care Acts (ACA) impacts on","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1302371","title":"The Long-Run Effects of the Affordable Care Act: Evidence from a Partially Pre-Committed Research Design Over the COVID-19 Recession and Recovery","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35190","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1302371:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/ruediger_fahlenbrach\">R\u00fcdiger Fahlenbrach<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/leandro_sanz\">Leandro Sanz<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/rene_stulz\">Ren\u00e9 M. Stulz<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"Many startups in the 2000s have remained private after achieving large valuations, a pattern that funding availability alone cannot explain. We propose that startups relying heavily on organization capital to achieve economies of scale and network effects through digital technologies are more likely","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1302372","title":"Organization Capital, Large Startups, and the Dearth of IPOs","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35191","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1302372:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/peter_blair\">Peter Q. Blair<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/rui_guo_1\">Rui Guo<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"The paper develops a framework for evaluating credential-coded algorithmic screens under existing civil rights law. AI-powered hiring tools trained on historical data often encode and automate bachelor's degree requirements as a proxy for worker skill, producing what this paper terms algorithmic","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1302373","title":"Algorithmic Credentialism","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35192","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1302373:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/madeline_helfer\">Madeline S. Helfer<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/becky_staiger\">Becky Staiger<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/jessica_vanparys\">Jessica Van Parys<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"This paper uses Medicaid claims data from 2017-2021 to measure racial\/ethnic disparities in mid-life mortality among low-income adults with disabilities receiving Supplemental Security Income (SSI). We find that American Indian and Alaska Native and White SSI recipients have the highest age-adjusted","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1302374","title":"Mortality Rates by Race and Ethnicity Among People with Disabilities","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35193","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1302374:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/fernando_alvarez\">Fernando E. Alvarez<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/david_argente\">David Argente<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/joyce_chow\">Joyce Chow<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/diana_vanpatten\">Diana Van Patten<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"Data centers are the physical infrastructure behind cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and enterprise software. The rapid diffusion of artificial intelligence (AI) is intensifying demand for compute, accelerating investment in data centers, and raising concerns about the local economic and","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1303687","title":"Data Centers and Local Economies in the Age of AI: A Shift--Share Approach","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35194","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1303687:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/paul_bingley\">Paul Bingley<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/nabanita_datta_gupta\">Nabanita Datta Gupta<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/malene_kallestrup-lamb\">Malene Kallestrup-Lamb<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/alexander_marin\">Alexander O.K. Marin<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"Using Danish SHARE data from 20042022, we examine income gradients in health among retirees ages 6079 across functional, diagnosed, comprehensive, mental, and cognitive domains. Higher-income retirees are healthier across all dimensions, but the evolution of inequality differs across measures.","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1301950","title":"Health Inequalities Among Danish Retirees 2004-2022","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35165","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1301950:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/arindrajit_dube\">Arindrajit Dube<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"Californias AB 1228 raised the minimum wage for large fast-food chains to $20 per hour in April 2024roughly 77 percent of the states median hourly wage, the highest wage floor for fast-food workers in the U.S. Using QCEW data through 2025Q3, I estimate that the policy raised fast-food wages by about","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1301964","title":"Labor Market Effects of California\u2019s $20 Fast-Food Minimum Wage","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35171","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1301964:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/miriam_steurer\">Miriam Steurer<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/sabrina_spiegel\">Sabrina S. Spiegel<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"Missing data are a common feature of micro-level transaction data used to construct hedonic real estate price indices. Missingness typically occurs in the descriptive characteristics required for quality adjustment rather than in transaction prices. Since these characteristics are central to hedonic","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1297272","title":"Filling the Gaps with MICE: Addressing Missing Data in Real Estate Price Indices","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35139","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1297272:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/benjamin_goldman\">Benjamin Goldman<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/jamie_gracie\">Jamie Gracie<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/sonya_porter\">Sonya Porter<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"Americans rarely marry outside their race or class group, a pattern with well-documented implications for inequality and intergenerational mobility. Limited exposureor interactions with members of other groupsmay partly explain these low intergroup marriage rates. We instrument for exposure using","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1297273","title":"Who Marries Whom? The Role of Segregation by Race and Class","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35140","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1297273:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/kathryn_bonney\">Kathryn Bonney<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/cory_breaux\">Cory L. Breaux<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/emin_dinlersoz\">Emin Dinlersoz<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/lucia_foster\">Lucia S. Foster<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/john_haltiwanger\">John C. Haltiwanger<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/aditya_pande\">Aditya A. Pande<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"Using novel, nationally representative data from the 2026 AI supplement to the U.S. Census Bureaus Business Trends and Outlook Survey (BTOS), we characterize AI diffusion across three layers: firm-wide adoption, business-function deployment, and worker-task use. During Nov 2025Jan 2026, 18% of firms","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1297275","title":"The Microstructure of AI Diffusion: Evidence from Firms, Business Functions, and Worker Tasks","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35141","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1297275:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/daniela_vidart\">Daniela Vidart<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"This paper examines correspondence education as an alternative educational pathway in early 20th-century America. Using newly digitized records from the International Correspondence Schoolsthe largest such institution, with over 4 million students by 1940linked to census data, I show that enrollment","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1297276","title":"Learning by Mail: The Impact of Correspondence Schools in Early 20th Century America","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35147","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1297276:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/alexandre_mas\">Alexandre Mas<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"I study hiring under uncertainty when firms can either hold permanent labor as a buffer or hire from a spot market after demand is realized. I build a model where the spot market is endogenously determined such that when one firm relies more on spot labor, it thickens the market that other firms use","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1297277","title":"The Labor Market as an Equilibrium Newsvendor Problem","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35148","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1297277:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/steven_durlauf\">Steven N. Durlauf<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"This article proposes a way of understanding meritocracy from retrospective versus prospective points of view. Retrospective meritocracy is static or backwards-looking: Merit is based on an individuals characteristics or past achievements as representative of excellence or as desert for a position","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1297278","title":"Retrospective Versus Prospective Meritocracy","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35151","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1297278:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/sydnee_caldwell\">Sydnee Caldwell<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/ingrid_haegele\">Ingrid Haegele<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/joerg_heining\">J\u00f6rg Heining<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"We estimate firm-specific amenity valuations using discrete choice experiments embedded in a large-scale survey of German workers linked to administrative records. Workers rank hypothetical offers from real firms they would consider joining, with randomized wages identifying money-metric valuations.","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1297279","title":"Firm Pay, Amenities, and Inequality","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35149","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1297279:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/flavio_cunha\">Flavio Cunha<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/snejana_nihtianova\">Snejana Nihtianova<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/jessica_rood\">Jessica Rood<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/anja-lize_van_der_merwe\">Anja-Lize van der Merwe<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"We develop a model of parental investment in early childhood in which bandwidth-constrained parents hold distorted beliefs about the returns to responsive interaction. When capacity falls short of aspiration, motivated reasoning provides relief: the parent distorts her working belief downward,","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1297280","title":"Beliefs, Attention, and Investments in Early Childhood","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35150","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1297280:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/lukas_althoff\">Lukas Althoff<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/hbrookesgray\">Harriet M. Brookes Gray<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/hugo_reichardt\">Hugo Reichardt<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"How did the US become a land of opportunity? Previous historical research on intergenerational mobility has focused on father-son income correlations, masking the role of mothers. We introduce a new mobility measure that incorporates both parents' human capital, develop a latent variable method","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1297281","title":"Mothers, Schools, and the Making of American Human Capital Mobility","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35152","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1297281:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/bruce_carlin\">Bruce I. Carlin<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/ryan_israelsen\">Ryan D. Israelsen<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/christopher_wazzan\">Christopher F. Wazzan<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"How does AI manage household stock portfolios? We collect a prospective, daily time-series of stock recommendations using several LLM's and study AI's investment style. AI recommends undiversified portfolios that positively load on momentum, large companies, and low book-to-market firms. AI","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1297282","title":"AI Managed Household Portfolios: A Preliminary Report","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35153","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1297282:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/navin_kartik\">Navin Kartik<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/elliot_lipnowski\">Elliot Lipnowski<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/harry_pei_1\">Harry Pei<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"Does electoral replacement ensure that officeholders eventually act in voters interests? We study a reputational model of accountability. Voters observe incumbents performance and decide whether to replace them. Politicians may be good types who always exert effort or opportunists who may shirk. We","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1297283","title":"Replacement and Reputation","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35154","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1297283:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/tom_davidson\">Tom Davidson<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/basil_halperin\">Basil Halperin<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/thomashoulden\">Thomas Houlden<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/anton_korinek\">Anton Korinek<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"AI labs are increasingly using AI itself to accelerate AI research, creating a feedback loop that could lead to an intelligence explosion. We develop a general semi-endogenous growth model with an innovation network, where research and automation in one sector increase the productivity of research","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1297284","title":"When Does Automating AI Research Produce Explosive Growth? Feedback Loops in Innovation Networks","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35155","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1297284:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/johannesboehm\">Johannes Boehm<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/thomas_chaney\">Thomas Chaney<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"What was the role of trade, and how did economic activity evolve at the End of Antiquity, when political power shifts away from the Mediterranean towards northern Europe and the Middle East? To answer those questions, we assemble a database of hundreds of thousands of ancient coins from the fourth","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1297285","title":"Trade and the End of Antiquity","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35156","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1297285:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/sule_alan\">Sule Alan<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/kbiswas\">Kumar Biswas<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/christina_hauser\">Christina S. Hauser<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/shwetlena_sabarwal\">Shwetlena Sabarwal<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"Improving classroom behavior is a persistent challenge in low-resource education systems, where disruptive environments often derail instruction and limit learning. Yet little rigorous evidence exists on whether behavior management can serve as a lever for academic improvement. We evaluate a program","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1298432","title":"Adolescent Behavior, Learning, and Knowledge Diffusion: Evidence from a Randomized Experiment","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35160","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1298432:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/sule_alan\">Sule Alan<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"This chapter examines how schools cultivate socio-emotional skills that influence both individual success and broader social cohesion. Moving beyond the traditional focus on cognitive ability, I argue that education plays a crucial role in fostering traits that promote cooperation, trust, and long","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1298433","title":"Shaping Society's Character: The Role of Schools in Developing Social and Emotional Skills","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35161","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1298433:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/leonardo_bursztyn\">Leonardo Bursztyn<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/angela_duckworth\">Angela L. Duckworth<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/rafael_jimenez\">Rafael Jim\u00e9nez-Dur\u00e1n<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/aaron_leonard\">Aaron Leonard<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/fmilojevic\">Filip Milojevi\u0107<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/chris_roth\">Christopher Roth<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/cass_sunstein\">Cass R. Sunstein<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"In December 2025, Australia became the first country to ban youth under 16 years old from holding accounts on major social media platforms, a policy now under consideration in more than a dozen countries and in numerous states. Because social media use is inherently social, the effectiveness of a","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1298434","title":"Why Bans Fail: Tipping Points and Australia's Social Media Ban","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35162","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1298434:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/vincent_armentano\">Vincent J. Armentano<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/paul_niehaus\">Paul Niehaus<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/tom_vogl\">Tom Vogl<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"The share of the global population living in extreme poverty fell dramatically from an estimated 36% in 1990 to 9% in 2015. We describe how this decline happened: the extent to which changes within as opposed to between cohorts contributed to poverty declines, and the key changes in the lives of","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1298435","title":"How Poverty Fell","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35163","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1298435:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/hassan_afrouzi\">Hassan Afrouzi<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/andres_blanco\">Andres Blanco<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/andres_drenik\">Andr\u00e9s Drenik<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/erik_hurst\">Erik Hurst<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"We study how an automating technology affects career dynamics, human capital, and welfare in an economy where workers acquire skill through the tasks they perform. In a continuous-time general equilibrium model, learning-by-doing is determined jointly with the share of tasks automated, the frontier","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1297246","title":"Automation, Learning, and Career Dynamics","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35157","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1297246:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/sean_cao\">Sean S. Cao<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/wei_jiang\">Wei Jiang<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/frankxu1987\">Hui Xu<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"This research explores how human-defined goals influence the behavior of Large Language Models (LLMs) through purpose-conditioned cognition. Using financial prediction tasks, we show that revealing the downstream use (e.g., predicting stock returns or earnings) of LLM outputs leads the LLM to","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1297248","title":"Seeing the Goal, Missing the Truth: Human Accountability for AI Bias","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35142","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1297248:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/william_cong\">Lin William Cong<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/guanhao_feng\">Guanhao Feng<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/jingyuhe\">Jingyu He<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/yuanzwang5\">Yuanzhi Wang<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"We argue that return predictability is a latent, asset-specific, and state-dependent characteristic. We develop an interpretable Panel Tree that endogenously partitions the U.S. equity panel into out-of-sample and persistent mosaic patterns, and estimate cluster-specific forecasting models.","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1297249","title":"Mosaics of Predictability","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35158","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1297249:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/paola_giuliano\">Paola Giuliano<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"This chapter reviews the growing literature on the origin, persistence and evolution of cultural norms. I begin by examining the deep historical forces that shape the formation of cultural norms, with particular attention to the role of geography, pre-industrial societal characteristics, political","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1297253","title":"Sticky Traditions: Origin, Persistence, and Evolution of Cultural Norms","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35125","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1297253:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/wyatt_brooks\">Wyatt Brooks<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/kevin_donovan\">Kevin Donovan<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"We study time-consistent optimal policy when undiversified owner-operators face financial frictions and a planner with limited instruments. We apply it to fertilizer subsidies, one of the largest sector-specific policy instruments in the developing world and whose price is becoming increasingly","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1297254","title":"Industrial Policy with Development Characteristics: Fertilizer Policy in Times of Crisis","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35126","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1297254:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/francesco_grigoli\">Francesco Grigoli<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/damiano_sandri\">Damiano Sandri<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/yuriy_gorodnichenko\">Yuriy Gorodnichenko<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/olivier_coibion\">Olivier Coibion<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"This paper studies how households perceive the transmission of monetary policy and how these perceptions affect their decisions. Using a large-scale survey of over 25,000 U.S. households combined with randomized information treatments, we measure how households expect changes in the federal funds","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1297255","title":"Monetary Policy According to Households: Perceptions, Reactions and Channels","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35127","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1297255:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/geir_asheim\">Geir B. Asheim<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/bard_harstad\">B\u00e5rd Harstad<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"The traditional approach to climate policy is to regulate the demand side, for example through an emissions fee. Supply-side regulation has received less attention. The two instruments are perfect substitutes in the first best but we show that they are complements in a second-best setting with free","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1297256","title":"Complementary Climate Policies for Supply and Demand","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35128","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1297256:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/elizabeth_cox\">Elizabeth Cox<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/chloe_east\">Chloe N. East<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"We provide the first causal, national empirical analysis of the labor market impacts of heightened immigration enforcement during the second Trump administration. Enforcement increased everywhere, but, we take advantage of the fact that the increases have been uneven across geographic areas to","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1297257","title":"Labor Market Impacts of ICE Activity in Trump 2.0","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35129","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1297257:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/hanming_fang\">Hanming Fang<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/soo_jin_kim\">Soo Jin Kim<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"We analyze the effects of data neutrality regulations on downstream market competition, the incentive of the platform to produce data, and consumer welfare. In our framework, data neutrality requires that firms seeking access to the platforms data be treated equally, irrespective of whether they are","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1297258","title":"Data Neutrality, Data Supply, and Market Competition","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35159","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1297258:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/leander_heldring\">Leander Heldring<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/daviskedrosky\">Davis Kedrosky<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/james_robinson\">James A. Robinson<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/mweigand\">Matthias Weigand<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"Many states exhibit high degrees of capacity without the fiscal resources necessary to fund a modern bureaucracy. We argue that they achieve this by exploiting features of the social structure of the societies they govern to motivate individuals to engage in bureaucratic and governance tasks without","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1297259","title":"The Success of the Embedded State in England","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35130","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1297259:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/danielbroxterman\">Daniel Broxterman<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/larsonwd\">William Larson<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/anthony_yezer\">Anthony Yezer<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"Characterizing the level and change of housing prices in cities is central to many empirical questions, whether prices are measured using rents or asset values. The task is complicated by the heterogeneity of the housing stock, the joint consumption of housing and neighborhood, and differences in","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1297262","title":"Characteristics of a Sufficient Statistic to Measure City Housing Prices","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35144","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1297262:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/hal_hershfield\">Hal E. Hershfield<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/suzanne_shu\">Suzanne Shu<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/jeffrey_brown\">Jeffrey R. Brown<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/abigail_hurwitz\">Abigail Hurwitz<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/moshe_milevsky\">Moshe Arye. Milevsky<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/olivia_mitchell\">Olivia S. Mitchell<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/tamiko_toland_1\">Tamiko Toland<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"Wealth decumulation decisions, or how to optimize consumption over an uncertain remaining lifespan, are among the most difficult people face. They involve intertemporal tradeoffs, uncertainty, complexity, and emotion, yet many consumers receive little formal guidance. A central challenge is securing","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1297263","title":"The Annuity Puzzle Revisited: Barriers, Behavior, and Policy Paths to Lifetime Income","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35145","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1297263:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/niklas_rott\">Niklas Rott<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/douglas_almond\">Douglas Almond<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/osea_giuntella\">Osea Giuntella<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"Rapid growth of wind energy plays a key role in global efforts to reduce carbon emissions, yet public concerns persist about its potential health effects, particularly through noise exposure. While some studies and media reports suggest that wind turbines may contribute to sleep disturbances,","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1297251","title":"Wind Turbine Proximity and Health: Longitudinal Evidence from U.S. Households","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35131","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1297251:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/fernando_alvarez\">Fernando E. Alvarez<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/francisco_buera\">Francisco J. Buera<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/nicholas_trachter\">Nicholas Trachter<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"We study optimal policy in a dynamic general equilibrium model where heterogeneous monopolistic competitive firms pay a fixed cost to adopt a frontier technology that grows exogenously. Using Mean Field Games tools, we show that the optimal policy consists of exactly two time-invariant subsidies:","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1297264","title":"Technology Adoption and Optimal Policy","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35133","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1297264:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/hunt_allcott\">Hunt Allcott<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/jason_baron\">E. Jason Baron<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/thomas_dee\">Thomas Dee<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/angela_duckworth\">Angela L. Duckworth<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/matthew_gentzkow\">Matthew Gentzkow<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/brian_jacob\">Brian Jacob<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"Schools across the U.S. have sharply restricted student use of phones during the school day. We evaluate one type of restrictionlockable phone pouchesusing nationwide data combining large-scale surveys, GPS pings, standardized test scores, and school administrative records, along with sales records","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1297252","title":"The Effects of School Phone Bans: National Evidence from Lockable Pouches","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35132","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1297252:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/mara_faccio\">Mara Faccio<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/stefano_manfredonia\">Stefano Manfredonia<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"We use establishment-level data to examine the relation between corporate taxes and financial distress. Using a border discontinuity design, we document that higher corporate income tax rates significantly increase financial distress, particularly for geographically concentrated firms, with sizable","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1297265","title":"Taxes and Financial Distress: Evidence from Establishment-Level Data","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35134","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1297265:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/nick_bloom\">Nicholas Bloom<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/erica_groshen\">Erica L. Groshen<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/duncan_hobbs\">Duncan Hobbs<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/michael_strain\">Michael R. Strain<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"On August 1, 2025, President Trump fired the head of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and claimed that the agencys data were rigged. In the aftermath, measures of economic policy uncertainty rose sharply, consistent with the idea that reduced trust in official data increases uncertainty for","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1297266","title":"The Value of Reliable Statistics","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35135","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1297266:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/kris_mitchener\">Kris James Mitchener<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/goncalo_alves_pina\">Gon\u00e7alo A. Pina<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"State-contingent debt (SCD) instruments have been proposed as an improvement to sovereign debt markets, but their issuance costs are not well understood. We estimate the SCD premium at issuance and for more than a decade thereafter, employing a quasi-twin bond strategy that uses two very similar","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1297268","title":"The State-Contingent Debt Premium: Evidence from French Public Bonds","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35136","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1297268:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/ryan_hill\">Ryan R. Hill<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/carolyn_stein\">Carolyn Stein<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"We study how a frontier AI model affects scientific discovery by examining the release of the AlphaFold2 algorithm and its impact on structural biology and related fields of science. Structural biology is the field of science concerned with understanding the structure and function of proteins.","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1297261","title":"How Artificial Intelligence Shapes Science: Evidence from AlphaFold","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35143","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1297261:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/hans_holter\">Hans A. Holter<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/dirk_krueger\">Dirk Krueger<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/serhiy_stepanchuk\">Serhiy Stepanchuk<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"This paper argues that a progressive tax system combined with individual taxation of married couples can generate more revenue than the current household-based U.S. system, especially when the extra revenues do not induce negative labor supply effects through increased government transfers. A","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1297270","title":"Till the IRS Do Us Part: (Optimal) Taxation of Households","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35137","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1297270:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/mark_shepard\">Mark Shepard<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/jacob_wallace\">Jacob Wallace<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"Medicaid is one of the largest public programs in the United States  providing health insurance to over 75 million low-income Americans  and over three quarters of its enrollees receive care via private managed care insurers. In this summary article, we make three central points about the economics","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1297274","title":"Understanding Medicaid Managed Care: The Procured Competition Model","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35146","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1297274:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/ronan_lyons\">Ronan C. Lyons<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/allison_shertzer\">Allison Shertzer<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/rowena_gray\">Rowena Gray<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"The Rent of Primary Residence (RoPR) series constructed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) implies that nominal rental prices increased by just 2.6% per year from 1914 to 2006 while overall prices grew by 3.3%. We show that this falling real rents puzzle can be explained by the evolving","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1297260","title":"Rental Prices and the Cost of Living in the United States, 1914\u20132006","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35124","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1297260:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/namrata_kala\">Namrata Kala<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/madeline_mckelway\">Madeline McKelway<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"May 2026","abstract":"Worker agencyworkers' influence over organizational decisionsis a commonly-cited determinant of employee engagement, productivity, and organizational culture. We conducted a firm-level RCT in India, randomizing whether employee recognition and associated bonuses were allocated: based on a worker","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1297269","title":"Power to the Personnel? The Impacts of Managerial Discretion vs. Worker Democracy in Employee Recognition","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35138","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1297269:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/dayin_zhang\">Dayin Zhang<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/panle_barwick\">Panle Jia Barwick<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/lu_han\">Lu Han<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/jkroah\">Jonathan Kroah<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"April 2026","abstract":"Despite intense competition among mortgage lenders, borrowers face substantial price dispersion. We argue that realtorloan officer referral networks are a key source of lender market power: by steering homebuyers toward a small set of loan officers, these networks restrict effective borrower choice","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1275479","title":"Market Power in Mortgage Pricing: the Role of Referral Lending","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35015","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1275479:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/cristina_belles\">Cristina Bell\u00e9s-Obrero<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/manuel_flores_mallo\">Manuel Flores Mallo<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/pilar_garcia-gomez\">Pilar Garc\u00eda-G\u00f3mez<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/sergi_jimenezmartin\">Sergi Jimenez-Martin<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/judit_vallcastello\">Judit Vall Castell\u00f3<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"April 2026","abstract":"Spain, with one of the highest life expectancies globally and a rapidly ageing population, faces growing challenges in sustaining its pension, healthcare, and long-term care systems. This study examines trends in health inequalities among retired Spaniards from 2004 to 2022, using eight waves of the","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1291872","title":"Trends in Health Inequalities among Spanish Retirees","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35105","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1291872:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/noah_kouchekinia\">Noah Arman Kouchekinia<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/david_neumark\">David Neumark<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/tim_bruckner\">Tim A. Bruckner<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"April 2026","abstract":"With large gains in life expectancy, the population share of disability due to cognitive decline and dementia has substantially increased. Many older adults in the United States leave the workforce well before age 65. Correlational evidence suggests that leaving the workforce before retirement age","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1292334","title":"Does Employment Slow Cognitive Decline? Evidence from Labor Market Shocks","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35117","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1292334:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/tania_babina\">Tania Babina<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"April 2026","abstract":"This paper reviews firm-level data on artificial intelligence and the emerging evidence on AI's economic effects. It argues that measurement is central: different AI datasets capture different objects (including invention versus use, internal capability building versus outsourcing, and realized","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1292338","title":"Understanding Firms' AI Efforts and Their Economic Impact","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35123","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1292338:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"},{"imageurl":null,"authors":["<a href=\"\/people\/alena_gorbuntsova\">Alena Gorbuntsova<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/gaurav_khanna\">Gaurav Khanna<\/a>","<a href=\"\/people\/sultan_mehmood\">Sultan Mehmood<\/a>"],"publisheddate":null,"displaydate":"April 2026","abstract":"Wars are often framed as responses to external threats or shifts in the regional balance of power. Yet they can also serve domestic political ends. This paper studies how Russias escalations against Ukraine reshaped support for the regime and redistributed the burdens of war across the population.","newthisweek":false,"certifiedrandom":false,"nid":"1292580","title":"The Domestic Political Economy of War: Evidence from Russia","type":"working_paper","url":"\/papers\/w35107","id":"i768l2-sitesearch-entity:node\/1292580:en","backofficeid":null,"displaytypename":"Working Paper"}],"facets":[{"endpoint":"\/suggest","values":[{"smallText":"Affiliated Org","name":"Joshua Aizenman","id":"authorNames:Joshua Aizenman","selected":false},{"smallText":"Affiliated Org","name":"Daron Acemoglu","id":"authorNames:Daron Acemoglu","selected":false},{"smallText":"Affiliated Org","name":"James J. Heckman","id":"authorNames:James J. Heckman","selected":false},{"smallText":"Affiliated Org","name":"Edward L. Glaeser","id":"authorNames:Edward L. Glaeser","selected":false},{"smallText":"Affiliated Org","name":"Michael D. Bordo","id":"authorNames:Michael D. 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