List of Affiliates' Work in Medical and Other Journals with Pre-Publication Restrictions - 2019, 2

Many NBER-affiliated researchers publish some of their findings in medical and other journals that preclude pre-publication distribution. This makes it impossible to include these papers in the NBER working paper series. This is a partial listing of recent papers in this category by NBER affiliates in the Health Economics, Health Care, and Aging Programs.

Health-Related Papers

Clinical Decision Support for High-Cost Imaging: A Randomized Clinical Trial
Doyle J, Abraham S, Feeney L, Reimer S, Finkelstein A. PLOS ONE 14(3), March 2019, p. e0213373.

Due to widespread concern over the health risks and healthcare costs from potentially inappropriate high-cost imaging, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) will soon require high-cost imaging orders to be accompanied by Clinical Decision Support (CDS): software that provides appropriateness information at the time orders are placed. To evaluate the impact of the CDS in context, the authors studied its effect on the ordering behavior of providers in a randomized trial of 3,511 healthcare providers at Aurora Health Care. They found that CDS reduced targeted imaging orders by a statistically significant 6 percent. However, there was no statistically significant change in the total number of high-cost or low-cost scans. One likely reason is that the software often makes a recommendation for an alternative high-cost imaging order. Thus, the CMS mandate requiring healthcare systems to adopt CDS may only modestly increase the appropriateness of high-cost imaging.

Medical Expenditures Attributable to Dementia
White L, Fishman P, Basu A, Crane PK, Larson EB, Coe NB. Health Services Research, March 2019.

As the population ages, it will be important for public and private decision makers to understand the magnitude of the direct medical care costs attributable to dementia. This longitudinal analysis simultaneously considers the impact of dementia on costs through its influence on length of survival and its influence on intensity of health service utilization. The researchers used Medicare data linked to the 1991-2012 Health and Retirement Study to compare the Medicare expenditures following a dementia diagnosis to those for a randomly selected, matched comparison group. They find that dementia's five-year incremental cost to the traditional Medicare program was approximately $15,700 per patient, nearly half of which was incurred in the first year after diagnosis. Shorter survival with dementia mitigated the incremental cost by about $2,650. Increased costs for individuals with dementia were driven by more intensive use of Medicare Part A covered services including inpatient, skilled nursing, and hospice care. At the end of life, however, individuals with dementia had consistently lower costs. There were significantly higher unadjusted costs among participants with dementia in the 12 months prior to diagnosis. These higher costs could reflect a greater comorbidity burden among individuals with dementia, the challenges of managing comorbid conditions with cognitive impairment, and the increased contact with the health care system leading to an eventual diagnosis. Overall, the findings underline the significance of dementia's cost to the traditional Medicare program, and indicate an opportunity to reduce incremental costs through earlier identification of dementia and improved care management.

Haemophilus Influenzae Type B Vaccination and Anthropometric, Cognitive, and Schooling Outcomes Among Indian Children
Nandi A, Deolalikar A, Bloom D, Laxminaryan R. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, June 2019.

Haemophilus influenzae Type B (Hib) is a childhood disease for which India has the highest number of deaths in the world. It is a bacterial pathogen that causes pneumonia and bacterial meningitis and, to a lesser extent, epiglottitis and other infections among children under age 5. The Hib vaccine was introduced in 2011 by the Indian government as part of a pentavalent pediatric vaccine on a trial basis in two states. The researchers used longitudinal data and a propensity score matching technique to investigate the effects of receiving the vaccine on subsequent health and education outcomes. Children who received the vaccine before age 6 were found to be 11 to 16 percent taller than similar Hib‐unvaccinated children at ages 11–12 and 14–15 years. Hib‐vaccinated children also scored 7–12 percent higher on English and mathematics tests at age 11–12 years and 7–10 percent higher on reading and mathematics tests at age 14–15 years. They attained 11-12 percent more schooling at both ages as compared with their unvaccinated counterparts. The findings indicate potential long‐term health, cognitive, and schooling benefits of the Hib vaccine, subject to the effect of unobserved confounding factors such as parental investments in child health. The positive health and educational outcomes of the vaccine are correlated with positive economic outcomes, suggesting that the benefits of Hib vaccination for low- and middle-income countries could reverberate throughout society.

Skilled Nursing Facility Participation in Medicare’s Bundled Payments for Care Improvement Initiative: A Retrospective Study
Weissblum L, Huckfeldt P, Escarce J, Karaca-Mandic P, Sood N. Archives of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation 100(2), February 2019, pp. 307-314.

Thirty-Day Postdischarge Mortality Among Black and White Patients 65 Years and Older in the Medicare Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program
Huckfeldt P, Escarce J, Sood N, Yang Z, Popescu I, Nuckols T. JAMA Network Open 2(3), March 2019, pp. e190634-e190634.

Paying Patients to Switch: Impact of A Rewards Program on Choice of Providers, Prices, and Utilization
Whaley CM, Vu L, Sood N, Chernew ME, Metcalfe L, Mehrotra A. Health Affairs 38(3), March 2019, pp. 440-447.

Machine-Based Expert Recommendations and Insurance Choices Among Medicare Part D Enrollees
Bundorf MK, Polyakova M, Stults C, Meehan A, Klimke R, Pun T, Chan AS, Tai-Seale M. Health Affairs 38(3), March 2019, pp. 482-490.

The Cost-Effectiveness of Interventions to Increase Utilization of Prone Positioning for Severe Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome
Baston C, Coe NB, Guerin C, Mancebo J, Halpern S. Critical Care Medicine 47(3), March 2019, pp. e198-e205.

Patient Outcomes After Hospital Discharge to Home with Home Health Care vs to a Skilled Nursing Facility
Werner RM, Coe NB, Qi M, Konetzka RT. JAMA Internal Medicine 179(5), March 2019, pp. 617-623.

Thyroid Ultrasound and the Increase in Diagnosis of Low-risk Thyroid Cancer
Haymart MR, Banerjee M, Reyes-Gastelum D, Caoili E, Norton EC. Journal of Clinical Endocrinology & Metabolism 104(3), March 2019, 785-792.

Evidence that Prenatal Testosterone Transfer from Male Twins Reduces the Fertility and Socioeconomic Success of their Female Co-Twins
Bütikofer A, Figlio DN, Karbownik K, Kuzawa CW, Salvanes KG. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 116(14), April 2019, pp. 6749-6753.

Ambulance Diversions Following Public Hospital Emergency Department Closures
Hsuan C, Hsia RY, Horwitz JR, Ponce NA, Rice T, Needleman J. Health Services Research, April 2019.

Effects of Improvements in the CPS on the Estimated Prevalence of Medical Financial Burdens
Hill SC, Solomon KT, Maclean JC, Pesko MF. Health Services Research, April 2019.

Association Between Hospital Participation in Medicare Shared Savings Program Accountable Care Organizations and Readmission Following Major Surgery
Borza T, Oerline MK, Skolarus TA, Norton EC, Dimick JB, Jacobs BL, Herrel LA, Ellimoottil C, Hollingsworth JM, Ryan AM, Miller DC, Shahinian VB, Hollenbeck BK. Annals of Surgery 269(5), May 2019, pp. 873-878.

A DELPHI Study to Identify and Address the Knowledge Gaps on the Health Burden Attributable to Serogroup B Invasive Meningococcal Disease
Marten O, Koerber F, Bloom D, Bullinger M, Buysse C, Christensen H, De Wals P, Dohna-Schwake C, Henneke P, Kirchner M, Knuf M, Lawrenz B, Liborio A, Sevilla JP, Van de Velde N, Welte R, Wright C, Greiner W. Health and Quality of Life Outcomes 17(1), May 2019, p. 87.

The Last Link: From Gun Acquisition to Criminal Use
Cook PJ, Pollack HA, White K. Journal of Urban Health May 2019.

Association Between High Discharge Rates of Vulnerable Patients and Skilled Nursing Facility Copayments
Chatterjee P, Qi M, Coe NB, Konetzka RT, Werner RM. JAMA Internal Medicine May 2019.

Health Insurance and Out-of-Pocket Costs in the Last Year of Life Among Decedents Utilizing the ICU
Khandelwal N, White L, Randall CJ, Coe NB. Critical Care Medicine June 2019.

Patterns of Youth Cigarette Experimentation and Onset of Habitual Smoking
Friedman AS, Buckell J, Sindelar JL. American Journal of Preventive Medicine 56(6), June 2019, pp. 803-810.

Other Papers

Better Sustainability Assessment of Green Buildings with High-Frequency Data
Qiu Y, Kahn ME Nature Sustainability 1, November 2018, pp. 642–649.

Air Pollution Lowers Chinese Urbanites' Expressed Happiness on Social Media
Zheng S, Wang J, Sun C, Zhang X, Kahn ME, Nature Human Behaviour 3, January 2019, pp. 237–243.

The Low but Uncertain Measured Benefits of US Water Quality Policy
Keiser DA, Kling CL, Shapiro JS. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 116(12), March 2019, pp. 5262–5269.

Testing for Crowd Out in Social Nudges: Evidence from A Natural Field Experiment in The Market For Electricity
Brandon A, List J, Metcalfe R, Price M, Rundhammer F, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 116(12), March 2019, pp. 5293–5298.

The Social Cost of Lobbying over Climate Policy
Meng KC, Rode A. Nature Climate Change 9, May 2019, pp. 472–276.

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