9 November 2018

Migrant Sanctions Deter Repeat Illegal Entry Attempts

Between 2008 and 2012, the U.S. Border Patrol rolled out a Consequence Delivery System that increased the fraction of apprehended border crossers subject to administrative or criminal sanctions from 15 percent to 85 percent. Samuel Bazzi, Sarah Burns, Gordon Hanson, Bryan Roberts, and John Whitley find that this program accounted for between 28 and 44 percent of the reduction in re-apprehension rates over this period.

8 November 2018

STEM Careers and Technological Change

Initially high economic returns to holders of applied STEM degrees decline by more than 50 percent in the first decade of working life, due to technological changes which introduce new job tasks and make old ones obsolete, David J. Deming and Kadeem L. Noray find. This may help explain the “STEM shortage.”

7 November 2018

Commodity Currencies and Monetary Policy

A study by Michael B. Devereux and Gregor W. Smith suggests that, in countries specializing in commodity exports, a commodity price increase leads to increases in the future values of the international differential in policy interest rates and to the tightening of expected future monetary policy relative to the U.S.

6 November 2018

Globalization and Government Popularity

Growth in high-skill-intensive exports increases approval of the government among skilled individuals, while growth in high-skill-intensive imports has the opposite effect, according to research by Cevat G. Aksoy, Sergei Guriev, and Daniel S. Treisman. Fluctuations in these trade flows has no effect among the unskilled.

5 November 2018

Skill of the Immigrants and Vote of the Natives:
Immigration and Nationalism in European Elections

Analyzing European parliamentary presidential elections between 2007 and 2016. Simone Moriconi, Giovanni Peri, and Riccardo Turati find that larger inflows of highly educated immigrants were associated with a change in the vote of citizens away from nationalism, while inflows of less-educated immigrants were associated with a shift towards nationalism.

2 November 2018

Why Does Credit Growth Crowd Out Real Growth?

Using a panel of 20 countries over 25 years, Stephen G. Cecchetti and Enisse Kharroubi establish the higher the growth rate of credit, the lower the growth rate of output per worker. As the amount of borrowing by entrepreneurs grows over time, they turn to safer, lower-return projects, reducing aggregate productivity growth.

1 November 2018

Making the Modern Metropolis: Evidence from London

Using the revolution in transport technology, especially railroads, spatially disaggregated data for London from 1801-1921, and a quantitative urban model, Stephan Heblich, Stephen J. Redding, and Daniel M. Sturm show that separation of workplaces and residences plays a central role in the concentration of economic activity in large metropolises.

31 October 2018

Leverage-Induced Fire Sales and Stock Market Crashes

Unregulated shadow-financed margin accounts, facilitated by fintech lending platforms, were a source of leverage-induced fire sales that contributed to the Chinese stock market crash of 2015, according to an analysis by Jiangze Bian, Zhiguo He, Kelly Shue, and Hao Zhou.

30 October 2018

Do Equal Employment Opportunity Statements Backfire?

The presence of an equal employment opportunity statement on a job posting dampens rather than encourages racial minorities’ willingness to apply for jobs, Andreas Leibbrandt and John A. List find, because racial minorities avoid environments in which they are perceived as regulatory, or symbolic, hires.

29 October 2018

The Effects of Competition on Creative Production

Intensifying competition induces agents to produce original, untested ideas rather than tweak earlier work, but heavy competition drives them to stop investing altogether, Daniel P. Gross finds.
NBER Videos

National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Ave., Cambridge, MA 02138; 617-868-3900; email:

Contact Us