NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Elasticity of US Federal Income Tax Liabilities

Calculations from the NBER TAXSIM model.

Fixed 1995 Income Distribution

1960 1.501
1961 1.496
1962 1.484
1963 1.479
1964 1.507
1965 1.398
1966 1.391
1967 1.383
1968 1.374
1969 1.361
1970 1.367
1971 1.417
1972 1.436
1973 1.411
1974 1.409
1975 1.535
1976 1.524
1977 1.888
1978 1.923
1979 2.038
1980 2.011
1981 1.965
1982 1.969
1983 1.959
1984 1.916
1985 1.928
1986 1.935
1987 1.596
1988 1.551
1989 1.547
1990 1.547
1991 1.566
1992 1.576
1993 1.586
1994 1.627
1995 1.640
1996 1.639
1997 1.641
1998 1.638
1999 1.621
2000 1.607
2001 1.672
2002 1.679
2003 1.681
2004 1.663
2005 1.654
2006 1.655
2007 1.650
2008 1.667
2009 1.837
2010 1.835
2011 1.627
2012 1.620
2013 1.612

The elasticity shown is the percentage change in federal income tax liability (including EITC and minimum taxes, but not payroll taxes) for a one percent change in all income and deduction items.

Tax law for 2010+ includes 2011 extensions.

The calculation is based on 1995 income levels, in(de)flated to each year, without regard to the actual distribution of income each year.

For 1987 on, the increase in income is assumed to be real. For earlier years, it does not matter.

Daniel Feenberg
6 Mar 2011

 
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