PEAT Time-Line of Pivotal Documents and Influential Publications

The PEAT Time-Line of Pivotal Documents and Influential Publications
Year Document(s) Individual(s) Organization(s) Significance Critics/Opponents (if any) Influence and Effect
1945 Science: The Endless Frontier  Vanevar Bush    Foundational Doctrine of Post-war university based scientific research. Unknown Widely Accepted as basis for post-war basic research.
1957 The Demand and Supply  of Scientific  Personnel David Blank and George Stigler      In his autobiography, Stigler alleges that the report was censored by interested parties within the engineering establishment due to its potential political impact on federal funding and technical labor.  
1959 Dynamic Shortages and Price Rises: The Engineer-Scientist Case Kenneth Arrow  and William Capron        
1975 Letter To Rep. Joshua Eilberg John Osvald, President Association of American Universities Thanks Representative Eilberg as chairman of the Immigration Sub-committee of the House Judiciary Committee for his help getting colleges and universities exempted from the standard labor certification requirements. Action goes by all but unnoticed. Opposed by some representatives on the basis that the changes are being pushed through congress at the end of term without opportunity for debate, examination or ammendment. Exemption passes successfuly.
1983 A Nation At Risk: The Imperative for Educational Reform David P. Gardner, Chairman  National Commission on Excellence in Education      
1986 American Professors: A National Resource Imperiled Howard R. Bowen and Jack H. Shuster        
1986 The Pipeline For Scientific and Technical Personnel: Past Lessons Applied to Future Changes of Interest to Policy-Makers and Human Resource Specialists.  [No Author Attribution on Paper] National Science Foundation: Policy, Research, and Analysis Division  Indicates that NSF understood as early as 1986 that science and engineering 'shortages' are intrinsically economic in nature and not purely demographic phenomena. Suggests that rising wages can be depressed by disallowing the free market to function. Suggested mechanisms to depress U.S. science and engineering wages include using visas to pay foreign nationals to enter U.S. graduate programs and using government fellowships as 'lures' to enter graduate studies. The study is internal and was not apparently released to outsiders for fear of critical response. At a minimum, market intervention suggestions appears to anticipate the NSF sponsored legislative and funding developments which follow.
1987-1990 Future Scarcities of Scientists and Engineers: Problems and Solutions (Various Titles, pg. 990-1087 of Wolpe Hearing Proceedings)   National Science Foundation: Policy, Research, and Analysis Division Used by NSF director Erich Bloch to create a climate of concern over scientist and engineering 'shortages' begining in the 1990's. Rep. Howard Wolpe as well as Alan Fechter, Robert White, Michael Teitelbaum and other analysts. Effective in increasing NSF funding and in adding strong shortage alleviation provisions into the Immigration Act of 1990
1987 Workforce 2000: Work and Workers in the Twenty-First Century William Johnston and Arnold Packer Hudson Institute      
1989 Prospects for Faculty in the Arts and Sciences: A Study of Factors Affecting Demand and Supply, 1987 to 2012 Bowen, W.G., Sosa, J.        
1989 Testimony on the Immigration Act of 1990 William Kirwan, President University of Maryland at College Park, Representing the Association of American Universities Argued that based on shortage projections coupled to the singular nature of the Eilberg exemption of 1976, that U.S. universities should theirfore be entitled to a unique privilidge of unfettered access to foreign nationals (both to maintain excellence and avert crippling labor shortages). Analysts like Michael Teitelbaum, Lawrence Mishel, Malcolm Lovell, Vernon Briggs and others reject the notion of a looming labor shortage. Immigration Act of 1990 passes with strong shortage alleviation provisions as well as exemptions for 'outstanding professors'.
1990 Congressional Testimony on immigration and shortages of scientists and engineers in the 1990s. Phillip Griffiths, Provost Duke University Contributes to panic over shortages of scientists and engineers   1990 Immigration act passes with shortage alleviation exemptions for universities and scientific employers.
1990 Supply and Demand for Scientists and Engineers: A National Crisis in the Making [ Excerpts From Speech] Richard Atkinson, President  American Association for the Advancement of Science  Fuels panic over looming shortage of science and engineering Ph.D.s.    Contributes to the passage of legislation meant to aliviate this problem. 
1990 Statement to Senate hearing on the "Shortage of Engineers and Scientists" (pg. 690 of Wolpe Hearing Proceedings) Erich Bloch, Director National Science Foundation Fuels panic over looming shortage of science and engineering Ph.D.s. Analysts like Michael Teitelbaum, Lawrence Mishel, Malcolm Lovell, Vernon Briggs and others reject the notion of a looming labor shortage. Contributes to the passage of legislation meant to aliviate this problem. 
1990 Heading Off A PhD Shortage Robert Rosenzweig (President) and John Vaughn (Director of Federal Relations) Association of American Universities Adds to panic over looming shortage of science and engineering Ph.D.s.   Contributes to the passage of legislation meant to aliviate this problem.
1990 Science, Engineering, and the Sorcerer's Apprentice (pg. 445 of Wolpe Hearing Proceedings) Robert M. White, President National Academy of Engineering Openly questions the basis for panic over looming shortage of science and engineering Ph.D.s.   Contributes impetus culminating in Wolpe Hearing in 1992.
1990 Engineering Shortages and Shortfalls: Myths and Realities (pg. 464 of Wolpe Hearing Proceedings) Alan Fechter, Executive Director Office of Scientific and Engineering Personnel, National Resarch Council  Openly questions the basis for panic over looming shortage of science and engineering Ph.D.s.    Contributes impetus culminating in Wolpe Hearing in 1992. 
1991 Senate Bill 44. Daniel Moynihan, Senator United States Senate Responding to Richard Atkinson and Dorothy Zinberg, introduces a bill to alleviate scientist labor shortages by automatically granting a green card to any individual possessing a Ph.D., masters or bachelors degree in any field of natural science or engineering.  Unknown Bill fails.
1992 Projecting Science and Engineering Personnel Requirements for the 1990s: How Good are the Numbers? Howard Wolpe, Chairman Invsestigations and Oversight Committee, House Committee on Science, Space, Technology Extensive hearing which gave evidence of a pattern of deception by the National Science Foundation and others (see for example the statement of Joel Barries on pg. 404). Eric Bloch, Peter House, James Duderstadt Successfuly, if temporarily, ended the panic over shortages and led to questions about deliberate supersaturation of the science and engineering labor markets.
1995 Reshaping the Graduate Education of Scientists and Engineers Phillip Griffiths, Chairman COSEPUP, NAS   Daniel Greenberg, David Goodstein, Eric Weinstein as well as a later NAS/NRC report on "Trends in the Early Careers of Life Scientists"  
1995 The production and utilization of science and engineering doctorates in the United States William F. Massy and Charles A. Goldman Stanford and Rand Corp.   Charlotte Kuh  
1997 Help Wanted Harris Miller, Stuart Anderson ITAA   General Accounting Office, Norman Matloff, Robert Lerman  
1998 America's New Deficit: The Shortage of Information Technology Workers   Department of Commerce   General Accounting Office, Norman Matloff, Robert Lerman  
1998 Critique of: America's New Deficit: The Shortage of Information Technology Workers   General Accounting Office   Harris Miller Temporarily Frustrated passage of Bill seeking to expand the number of h1-b guestworker visas.
1998 Debunking the Myth of a Desperate Software Labor Shortage Norman Matloff, Professor Department of Computer Science, University of California at Davis Raised questions about the existence of the shortage of IT professionals. T.J. Rogers, Harris Miller, Stuart Anderson, Spencer Abraham Temporarily Frustrated passage of Bill seeking to expand the number of h1-b guestworker visas.