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"I would put requirements on the university that would ensure an increasing
number of Ph.D.s are produced .... I would be betting more like 100 to 1
that we are going to have dramatic shortages. Now we have to get down to
the details of what those shortages would be.
First of all, when one talks about a shortage of scientists and engineers,
all of these projections look to the future .... When they start to fall
into place, however, they will be very, very, large indeed.
Even if we are very active in intervening, we are going to experience a
major shortfall."
-Former NSF Director Richard Atkinson, testifying as President of the
American Association for the Advancement of Science
"...our colleges and universities must be assured of access to the best
available faculties, not only from this country, but from the entire world.
This is especially so as we enter the decade of the 1990's, a decade when
America's universities will face retirements in unprecedented numbers. I
would like to give one example from my own discipline of mathematics. By
1992, the number of Ph.D.'s produced, the projection for the number of
Ph.D.'s produced [sic], will be less than the number of retirements in
mathematics in America's colleges and universities, not to mention the
demand in the private sector for Ph.D. mathematicians. We will not even be
able to meet the shortfall in the colleges and universities."
-University
of Maryland President Bill Kirwan, testifying on behalf of the Association
of American Universities in testimony concerning the Immigration Act
of 1990.
"...I would like to suggest that given the present decline in, and
predicted shortages of, scientists and engineers of U.S. citizenship that
increasing the number of well-trained, qualified scientists and engineers,
regardless of country of origin, should become a national imperative. Our
immigration policies can best serve the interests of the Nation if they are
reframed to respond to the continuing and growing national demand for
individuals with scientific and technical expertise and training.
Simply stated, we face a severe and growing shortage of scientists and
engineers. The statistics are frequently quoted but they bear repetition
and remembering. The number of employed scientists and engineers doubled
between 1976 and 1986, while during the same period the number of Bachelor
degrees awarded in these fields increased by just 12 percent. By the year
2010, it is estimated that there will be 60, 000 more engineering jobs than
there will be engineers to fill them. We anticipate annual shortages of
7,500 natural science and engineering Ph.D.s in the next decade. In my
field of mathematics, the current rate at which U.S. citizens achieve
doctorates is sufficient to replace retirees only if all Ph.D. recipients
accept academic positions. Moreover, it is projected that by 1997 and
beyond the demand for mathematics faculty alone will outstrip the supply."
-Phillip Griffiths as Duke University Provost in testimony concerning the Immigration Act
of 1990.
"Recently, the debate over whether the United States is developing adequate
numbers of scientists and engineers to meet future national needs has taken
on a disturbing tone. To hear Congress, the media, policy gurus and even a
few scientists tell it, we will soon face a glut of scientists and
engineers in America.
Of course, the same concerns were raised in the early 1970s - remember the
mythical PhD taxi driver? But those projecting an oversupply were wrong
then, and they are wrong now."
-"Too Many Scientists? Don't Believe It" James J. Duderstadt, Chairman of
the National Science Board, June 2, 1992
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"The Draft [immigration] bill seems to be based upon a fundamental
misunderstanding of how labor markets work in a mixed economy.
The bill assumes that the U.S. is currently experiencing, or will
experiencing shortly, "structural" shortages of labor in key occupations
and/or regions. It cannot be overemphasized that no respectable labor
economist would accept this proposition.
Labor markets in mixed economies simply do not work that way: in the
absence of central direction of prices and wages by an American version of
the Soviet's now-discredited Gosplan, a rise in demand relative to supply
for labor in a region or occupation (a "tightening" of the labor market)
results in rising wages; they in turn evoke increased labor force
participation and entry into the tightening occupation..."
-Demographer and Sloan Foundation Officer, Michael S. Teitelbaum in testimony concerning the Immigration Act
of 1990.
"[T]here is absolutely no shortage of workers foreseeable in the United
States." -Cornell Labor Economist, Vernon Briggs, testifying in opposition
to the Immigration Act of 1990
"Now, my first concern is the premise upon which some of these provisions
rest; namely, that we have a labor shortage that cannot be corrected by
normal market forces. This is just not true. The United States has an
immense and talented labor force of 125 million persons, people with a vast
range and variety of skill and ability ... The idea of bringing in
individuals for a particular job is ludicrous. It results in people lying
and government agencies being asked to certify that shortages exist without
any real knowledge of it. We should not do it."
-Malcolm Lovell Jr., Director of the Institute for Labor and Management at George
Washington University in testimony concerning the Immigration Act
of 1990.
"...to measure labor shortages without any notion of wages is wrong"
-Richard S. Belous, Vice President, National Planning Association
in testimony concerning the Immigration Act
of 1990.
"As I percieve the testimony, I read in the press about this perceived
labor shortage in the United States, my reaction really is, really what is
all the fuss about, because I fail to see any demographic, and I emphasize
the word 'demographic', indication of any labor shortages in the forseeable
future."
-Demographer Leon F. Bouvier in testimony concerning the Immigration Act
of 1990.
"A tight labor market, when unemployment is low, may be awkward for some
employers, but it does wonders for workers, particularly disadvantaged
ones. In a tight labor market, as in World War II, women got good blue
collar jobs in factories; in tight labor markets the old and the young are
courted, racial prejudices forgotten, and employers make efforts to improve
wages and working conditions.
We should be extremely hesitant about using immigrant visas to loosen labor
markets. As we all learned in college economics, when a supply increases,
its value decreases."
-David North, Director of the Center for Labor and Migration Studies in testimony concerning the Immigration Act
of 1990.
"What can we expect to happen over the next ten years? There is a widely
held, but incorrect, belief that we will face labor shorages over the
1990s. ..... Despite the cries of labor shortages by many employers today
we have seen that the wages and working conditions in affected regions and
occupations have not changed appreciablbly. ...
I would be concerned about establishing whole new [immigration] mechanisms
for employers to claim labor shortages to deal with what they see as their
ability not to recruit workers at their current pay levels and working
conditions. They're new avenues to basically have a low-wage solution to
an economic problem rather than a high-wage solution, which I think in the
long run more beneficial to the country."
-Economist Lawrence Mishel in testimony concerning the Immigration Act
of 1990.
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