NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH, INC.

Economic Fluctuations and Growth Research Meeting

Ricardo Caballero and Peter Klenow, Organizers

February 6, 2004

Westin St. Francis Hotel

335 Powell Street

San Francisco, California

PROGRAM

FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 6:

8:30 AM Continental Breakfast

9:00 AM VALERIE RAMEY, UC, San Diego and NBER

DANIEL VINE, Federal Reserve Board

Tracking the Source of the Decline in GDP Volatility:

An Analysis of the Automobile Industry

Discussant: MARK WATSON, Princeton University and NBER

10:00 AM Coffee Break

10:30 AM PAUL BEAUDRY, University of British Columbia and NBER

FRANCK PORTIER, University of Toulouse

Stock Prices, News and Economic Fluctuations

Discussant: ROBERT HALL, Stanford University and NBER

11:30 AM FERNANDO BRONER, University of Maryland

Discrete Devaluations and Multiple Equilibria in a First Generation Model

of Currency Crises

Discussant: VARADARAJAN CHARI, University of Minnesota and NBER

12:30 PM Lunch

1:30 PM MARK AGUIAR, University of Chicago

ERIK HURST, University of Chicago and NBER

Consumption vs. Expenditure

Discussant: MARK BILS, University of Rochester and NBER

2:30 PM Coffee Break

3:00 PM RICARDO LAGOS, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

RANDALL WRIGHT, University of Pennsylvania and NBER

A Unified Framework for Monetary Theory and Policy Analysis

Discussant: NARAYANA KOCHERLAKOTA, Stanford University and NBER

4:00 PM BENJAMIN JONES, Northwestern University

BENJAMIN OLKEN, Harvard University

Do Leaders Matter? National Leadership and Growth since World War II

Discussant: CHARLES JONES, UC, Berkeley and NBER

5:00 PM Adjourn

6:30 PM Group Dinner

1/14/04