The National Bureau of Economic Research
Project on Exchange Rate Crises in Emerging Markets
The Argentina Crisis
July 17, 2002
Sebastian Edwards and Jeffrey Frankel, Organizers
Royal Sonesta Hotel
Ballroom B
PROGRAM
TUESDAY, JULY 16
7:00 PM Dinner - Harvard Faculty Club, 20 Quincy Street, Cambridge
DOMINGO CAVALLO, former Economy Minister, Argentina
WEDNESDAY, JULY 17
8:15 AM Continental Breakfast
8:45 AM Official Welcome
PANELS
9:00 AM 1.THE HARD PEG
Chair: JEFF FRANKEL, Harvard University and NBER
GUILLERMO MONDINO, formerly Secretary of Finance, Argentina
MIGUEL SEBASTIAN, Grupo BBVA
ALLAN MELTZER, Carnegie Mellon
EDUARDO LEVY-YEYATI, Central Bank of Argentina
How important was the lack of lender of last resort for the bank run? Was it a mistake to think that because international banks dominated the system a run was "unthinkable"? Would it have made a difference if the local banks had been branches of foreign banks, rather than subsidiaries? Is narrow/offshore banking the only long-term option for the future? For the short-term, how does one "thaw out" frozen deposits?
10:45 PM Break
11:00 AM 2. BANKING
Chair: ANDRES VELASCO, New York University and NBER
PEDRO POU, former head of central bank of Argentina
KRISTIN FORBES, MIT and NBER
TED TRUMAN, Institute for International Economics
ALBERTO ADES, Goldman Sachs
Argentina appeared to be the world's biggest success story for currency boards in the last decade. Should we view the 1991 convertibility plan as having been a success, in hindsight? Does its failure in 2001 mean that hard pegs more generally, or the corners hypothesis, are now discredited worldwide?
Was dollarization ever a real option? If so, when was it too late? Is it still an option? Would a hard peg have worked if the link had not been to a currency, the dollar, that on trade grounds was not well-correlated with Argentina's needs?
12:30 PM Lunch - Skyline Suites
Lunch speaker: ANNE KRUEGER, First Deputy Managing Director, IMF;
Stanford University and NBER
1:45 PM 3. DEBT
Chair: SEBASTIAN EDWARDS, UC, Los Angeles and NBER
ROQUE FERNANDEZ, former Finance Minister, Argentina
RICARDO HAUSMANN, Harvard University
ARTURO PORZECANSKI, ABN AMRO
MICHAEL MUSSA, Institute for International Economics
Should Argentina's fiscal record in the 1990s be viewed as poor, compared to other countries? What was the role of reform of previously unfunded pension liabilities? What was the role of the provinces, and fiscal federalism?
Why did the measures taken to smooth out debt maturities, and to arrange
private contingent lines of credit, apparently help so little? Was the main problem simply an increase in the interest rate that international investors demanded on Argentine debt and, if so, is this an example of multiple equilibria?
3:15 PM Break
3:30 PM 4. DESPERATION REMEDIES
Chair MARTIN FELDSTEIN, Harvard University and NBER
RICARDO LOPEZ MURPHY, former Economics Minister, Argentina
RANDALL KROSZNER, U.S. Council of Economic Advisors
ANOOP SINGH, International Monetary Fund
MARIO BLEJER, former head of the Central Bank of Argentina
Did Cavallo's attempts to deal with the worsening situation make sense? Was it ever possible to have a relatively painless default? Would a pesification have been considered a default, even if done efficiently?
Were Cavallo's desperation measures the best that could be done, or irrelevant, or did they make a bad situation worse? Was it too late to save Argentina, i.e., to avoid devaluation and default, by 2000?
What was the IMF's responsibility in the crisis? Did the IMF make the mistake of throwing good money away in August 2001? Was it an accomplice to the government in making people believe -- including politicians -- that there was more money than what there really was?
5:00 PM Adjourn
6:00 PM - Clam Bake at the Harvard Faculty Club, 20 Quincy Street, Cambridge
7/18/02
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Project on Exchange Rate Crises in Emerging Markets
The Argentina Crisis
Sebastian Edwards and Jeffrey Frankel, Organizers
July 17, 2002
Royal Sonesta Hotel
Ballroom B
PARTICIPANT LIST
Alberto Ades Goldman, Sachs & Co.
Mark Aguiar University of Chicago
Montek Ahluwalia International Monetary Fund
Joshua Aizenman UC, Santa Cruz and NBER
Joshua Angrist MIT and NBER
Martin Anidjar JP Morgan & Co.
Caroline Atkinson Council on Foreign Relations
Philippe Bacchetta Study Center Gerzensee
David Backus New York University
Romina Bandura Harvard University
Kasper Bartholdy Credit Suisse First Boston
Marianne Baxter Boston University and NBER
Pierpaolo Benigno New York University
Stanley Black University of North Carolina
Hoyt Bleakley MIT
Mario Blejer former Governor, Central Bank of Argentina
Michael Bordo Rytgers University and NBER
Eduardo Borensztein International Monetary Fund
Lael Brainard Brookings Instituton and NBER
Ariel Burnstein Northwestern University
Ricardo Caballero MIT and NBER
Sonia Cavallo Harvard University
Domingo Cavallo former Economics Minister, Argentina
Stephen Cecchetti Ohio State University and NBER
Luis Cespedes International Monetary Fund
Marcos Chamon Harvard University
Roberto Chang Rutgers University
Menzie Chinn UC, Santa Cruz and NBER
John Coatsworth Harvard University
Giancarlo Corsetti University of Rome III
Brahima Coulibaly University of Michigan
Robert Cumby Georgetown University and NBER
Jorge Braga de Macedo OECD and NBER
Fernando de Santibanes Liberty Foundation
Luca Dedola Bank of Italy
Padma Desai Columbia University
Rafael di Tella Harvard University
Kathryn Dominguez University of Michigan and NBER
Michael Dooley UC, Santa Cruz and NBER
Tomas Dvorak Williams College
Sebastian Edwards UC, Los Angeles and NBER
Barry Eichengreen UC, Berkeley and NBER
Eduardo Engel Yale University and NBER
Charles Engel University of Wisconsin, Madison and NBER
Martin Evans Georgetown University
Martin Feldstein Harvard University and NBER
Roque Ferandez former Finance Minister, Argentina
Eduardo Fernandez-Arias Inter-American Development Bank
Robert Flood International Monetary Fund
Kristin Forbes MIT and NBER
Jeffrey Frankel Harvard University and NBER
Jeffrey Frieden Harvard University
Peter Garber Deutsche Bank and NBER
Fabio Ghironi Boston College
Francesco Giavazzi Universita'L.Bocconi and NBER
Linda Goldberg Federal Reserve Bank of New York and NBER
Pablo Goldberg Merril Lynch
Itay Goldstein Duke University
Gita Gopinath University of Chicago
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas Princeton University and NBER
Mariko Hatase Bank of Japan
Harald Hau INSEAD
Ricardo Hausmann Harvard University
George Hoguet State Street Global Advisors
Takatoshi Ito Hitotsubashi University and NBER
Byeongju Jeong CERGE-EI
Simon Johnson MIT and NBER
Anil Kashyap University of Chicago and NBER
Michael Klein Tufts University and NBER
Randall Kroszner U.S. Council of Economic Advisors
Anne Krueger Stanford University and NBER
Michael Kumhof Stanford University
Chris Kurz University of Michigan
Amartya Lahiri UC, Los Angeles
Philip Lane Trinity College Dublin
Anne LeBrun Harvard University
Seungho Lee The Bank of Korea
Paulo Leme Goldman, Sachs & Co.
Richard Levich New York University and NBER
Geng Li University of Michigan
Gregory Mankiw Harvard University and NBER
Nancy Marion Dartmouth College
Nelson Mark Ohio State University and NBER
John McHale Queen's University
Allan Meltzer Carnegie Mellon University
Roberto Mendoza Goldman Sachs International
Guillermo Mondino formerly Secretary of Finance, Argentina
Adair Morse Purdue University
Ricardo Lopez Murphy former Economics Minister, Argentina
Michael L. Mussa Institute for International Economics
David Papell University of Houston
Guillermo Perry The World Bank
Paolo A. Pesenti Federal Reserve Bank of New York and NBER
Richard Portes London Business School
Arturo Porzecanski ABN-Amro
Pedro Pou former head of central bank of Argentina
Alesandro Prati International Monetary Fund
Steve Radelet Center for Global Development
Assaf Razin Cornell University and NBER
Carmen Reinhart University of Maryland and NBER
Patrice Robitaille Federal Reserve Board
Dani Rodrik Harvard University and NBER
Kenneth Rogoff Harvard University and NBER
Andrew Rose UC, Berkeley and NBER
Barbara Rossi Duke University
Julio Rotemberg Harvard University and NBER
Nouriel Roubini New York University and NBER
Ayako Saiki Brandeis University
Yuri Sasaki Meiji Gakuin University
Massimo Sbracia Bank of Italy
Ernesto Schargrodsky Universidad Torcuato di Tella
Sergio Schmukler The World Bank
Hal Scott Harvard Law School
Miguel Sebastian BBVA
David Sekiguchi Deutsche Bank
Jeffrey Shafer Salomon Smith Barney
Anoop Singh International Monetary Fund
Alan Stockman University of Rochester and NBER
Rene Stulz Ohio State University and NBER
Federico Sturzenegger Universidad Torcuato Di Tella
Lars E.O. Svensson Princeton University and NBER
Mark Taylor University of Warwick
Alan Taylor UC, Davis and NBER
Linda Tesar University of Michigan and NBER
Edwin Truman Institute for International Economics
Rodrigo Valdes Central Bank of Chile
Andres Velasco Harvard University and NBER
Jaume Ventura MIT and NBER
Paolo Vitale London School of Economics
Beatice Weder Johannes-Gutenberg-Universität
Shang-Jin Wei Brookings Institution and NBER
John Williamson Instutitue for International Economics
Holger Wolf George Washington University and NBER
Isamu Yamamoto Bank of Japan
Eduardo Levy Yeyati Universidad Torcuato Di Tella
Joseph Zeira Harvard University
7/15/200