BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH AND BIBLIOGRAPHY

 

VICTOR ZARNOWITZ

 

            November 3, 1919 (Poland), U.S. resident since 1952, U.S. citizen since 1957.

            Married, two sons.

 

Degrees: A.M., 1949, Ph.D. (Econ.), summa cum laude, 1951, University of Heidelberg (Germany)

 

Honors:            1992, Fellow, National Association of Business Economists.

                        1991, Honorary Member, CIRET.

                        1976, Fellow, American Statistical Association.

                        1963-64, Ford Foundation Faculty Research Fellowship.

                        1953-54, Harvard University, Social Science Research Council.

                        Postdoctoral Research Training Fellowship

 

Positions:          2000 to present -- Consultant, The Conference Board, New York

1994 to 1999 -- Director of Research, Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER), New York*.

                        1990 to present -- Professor Emeritus of Economics and Finance, Business.

                        1965 - 89 -- Professor of Economics and Finance;

                        1959 - 64 -- Associate Professor of Finance, Graduate School of Business University of Chicago.

                        1977 to present -- Research Associate; 1963 - 76 member, Senior Research Staff and Director, Study of Economic Forecasting;

                        1952 - 62 -- Member Research Staff, National Bureau of Economic Research, New York.

                        1956 - 59 -- Lecturer and Visiting Assistant Professor, Columbia University, New York.

                        1949 - 51 -- Tutor and Instructor, University of Heidelberg and Graduate School of Business, Mannheim, Germany.

 

Professional Societies:

 

                        American Economic Association; American Statistical Association; 

Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET); National Association of Business Economists.

 

Other Activities:           

                        Editor or co-editor: Economic Prospects (1971-73); Economic Outlook USA

            (1974-90); Economic Forecasts: A Worldwide Survey (1974-91); Journal of Business (1981-84); International Journal of Forecasting (1985-  ).

Consultant: Bureau of Economic Analysis (1972 - 93); Bureau of the Census;

U.S. Department of Energy; U.S. Postal Service; Institute for Defense Analysis; Congressional Budget Office; Conference Board.

                        Visiting and lecturing at the Universities of Mannheim, Munich, Zurich,               

                         Columbia, Harvard, and Stanford.       

 

References:    Who's Who in America; American Men of Science; Dictionary of International Biography; Contemporary Authors; The Blue Book (St. James Press, London); Men of Achievement, Who's Who in Economics (1,000 most frequently cited economists), Mark Blaug, University of London, editor.

 

Publications:

A. Books and Articles:

 

                        “Theory and History Behind Business Cycles: Are the 1990s the Onset of a Golden Age?”

                        Journal of Economic Perspectives, Spring 1999, vol. 13, no. 2.

 

                        "Has the Business Cycle Been Abolished?"       

                        Paper Presented at the Congressional Budget Office, Washington, D.C., June

1997.    Published in Business Economics, October 1998, vol.23, no.4, Pp. 39-45.

 

“Forecasting the U.S. Unemployment Rate” (with Alan L. Montgomery and George C. Tiao).

Journal of the American Statistical Association, June 1998, vol. 93, no. 442, Pp. 478-493.

 

“Cyclical Indicators and National Accounts”,

Expert Group Meeting of the United Nations Statistics Division, New York, October 1998.

 

                        "Business Cycles Observed and Assessed: Why and How They Matter",          

Paper presented at a Scientific Symposium Munich, January 1997.

 

Also published in German as “Beobachtung und Beurteilung von Konjunkturzyklen: Gründe

für ihre Bedeutung” in Ifo Studien, February 1997, Pp. 157-184.

 

"Business Cycles" in Business Cycles and Depressions: An Encyclopedia, ed. by D. Glasner.  New York & London: Gerland Publishing, Inc. 1997. Pp. 62-72.

 

                        “New Tools for Analyzing the Mexican Economy: Indexes of Coincident and              

Leading Indicators” (with Keith R. Phillips and Linda Vargas).  Economic Review Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.  Second Quarter 1996. Pp. 2-15.

 

“Some New Lessons from International Cyclical Indicators” in Business Cycle Indicators, ed. by K.H. Oppenländer.  Aldershot, England: Avebury, 1997, Pp. 175-204.

 

                        Also published in German as "Globale Konjunktur-und Wachstumzyklen"

                        in Konjunkturindikatoren: Fakten, Analysen, Verwendung, ed. by K.H.            

Oppenländer with A. G. Köhler.   München-Wien: R.Oldenbourg Verlag, 1996,                    

Pp. 254-281.

 

                        Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasts, University of      

Chicago Press for NBER, 1992.

 

"What is a Business Cycle?" The Business Cycle: Theories and Evidence, ed.

by M.T. Belongia and M.R.  Garfinkel, Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers.

1992.

 

“Twenty-two Years of the NBER-ASA Quarterly Economic Outlook Surveys:

Aspects and Comparisons of Forecasting Performance” (with P. Braun).  In

Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting ed. by J.K. Stock and M.W.

Watson.  University of Chicago Press, 1993, Pp. 11-84 (NBER Working Paper

no, 3965 May 1991.)

 

                        “Has Macro-Forecasting Failed?,” The Cato Journal, viol. 11, no. 3, Winter

1992 (NBER Working Paper no. 3863, October 1991).

 

“Die Regelmässigkeit von Konjunkturzyklen,” Ifo-Studien, 1991/1.

                       

“Forecasting Recessions Under the Gramm-Rudman-Hollings Law” (with G.H.

Moore), Leading Economic Indicators:  New Approaches and Forecasting

Records, ed. K. Lahiri and G.H. Moore, Cambridge University Press, 1991,

Pp. 257-274.

 

                        “A Guide to What is Know About Business Cycles,” Business Economics,

vol. 25, no 3, July 1990, Pp. 5-13.

 

“Major Macroeconomic Variables and Leading Indexes: Some Estimates of

Their Interrelations”, October 1987. (with P. Brown), Analyzing Modern

                          Business Cycles, ed. by P.A. Klein, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., 1990, Pp. 177-205.

                             

                         “Comment” on J. H. Stock and M. W.  Watson, “New Indexes of Coincident

                         and Leading Economic Indicators” (with P. Braun) NBER Macoeconomics   

                          Annual 1989, the MIT Press, Pp. 397-408.

 

                          "Indicators," The New Palgrave: A Dictionary of Economic Theory and

                          Doctrine”,  Stockton Press, October 1987.  (Revised for publication in the          

                           Dictionary of Money and Finance, 1993).

 

                          "Consensus and Uncertainty in Economic Prediction" (with Louis A.  

                          Lambros), Journal of Political Economy, vol. 95, no 3, June 1987, Pp.

                           591-62.

 

                          “Major Changes in Cyclical Behavior” (with G. H. Moore), The

                           American Business Cycle Today: Continuity and Changes, ed. by R. J. 

                            Gordon, University of Chicago Press for NBER, 1986, Pp. 519-572.

 

 

                             “The Development and Role of the National Bureau's Business Cycle    

                             Chronologies”: (with G. H. Moore), The American Business Cycle Today: -      

                              Continuity and Change, ed. by R. J. Gordon, University of Chicago Press for   

                               NBER, 1986, Pp. 735-779.

 

                              "The Record and Improvability of Economic Forecasts," Economic             

                                Forecasts:  A Worldwide Survey, vol. III, no 12, December 1986.

 

                              “Recent Work on Business Cycles in Historical Perspective: Review of

                              Theories and Evidence ”, Journal of Economic Literature, vol. 23, no. 2,

                              June 1985, Pp. 523-580

 

                              “Rational Expectations and Macroeconomic Forecasts, “Journal of

Business and Economic Statistics, vol. 3, no. 4, October 1985, Pp. 293-312.

 

                              “The New Worldwide Economic Survey,” The Economic Outlook for

                              1985, Ann Arbor: Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics, The

                              University of Michigan, 1985, Pp. 102-126.

 

                              “The Accuracy of Individual and Group Forecasts from Business

                              Outlook Survey “ Journal of Forecasting, vol. 3, no. 1, Jan. - March

                              1984, Pp. 11-26.

 

                              “Business Cycle Analysis and Exceptional Survey Data,”  Leading

                              Indicators and Business Cycle Surveys, ed. by K. H. Oppenländer and

                              G. Poser, Aldershot: Gower, 1984, Pp. 93-133.

 

                              “An Analysis of Predictions from Business Outlook Surveys,”

                              International Research on Business  Cycle Surveys, ed. by H. Laumer

                              and M Ziegler, Aldershot:  Gower, 1982, Pp. 283-355.

 

                              “On Functions, Quality, and Timeliness of Economic Information,”

                              Journal of Business, vol. 55, no. 1, January 1982, Pp. 87-119.

 

                              “Sequential Signals of Recession and Recovery” (with G. H. Moore),

                              Journal of Business, vol. 55, no 1, January 1982, Pp. 55-85.

 

                              “Business Cycles and Growth: Some Reflections and Measures,”

                              Wirtschaftstheorie und Wirtschaftspolitik: Gedenkschrift fur Erich

                              Preiser, ed. by W. J. Mückl and A. E. Ott, Passau: Passavia

                              Universitats - Verlag, 1981, Pp. 475-508.

 

                              Orders, Production, and Investment:  A Cyclical and Structural Analysis,

                              National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).  Distributed by Columbia    

                              University Press, New York and London, 1973. Pp.  xxxi, 759.

 

                              The Business Cycle Today, V. Zarnowitz, editor, Columbia University Press 

                              for NBER, New York, 1972.  "The Business Cycle Today: An   

                              Introduction," ibid., Pp. 1-38. "Forecasting Economic Conditions:  The

                              Record and the Prospect," ibid., Pp. 183-239.

 

                              An Appraisal of Short-Term Economic Forecasts, Columbia University

                              Press for NBER, New York, 1967.

 

“Accuracy of Economic Forecasts,”  Encyclopedia of Economics, D. Greenwald, ed., McGraw-Hill Book Co., 1982, Pp. 3-10.

 

                              “Sugli indicatori dei cicli di crescita statunitensi, ”Rassegna della

letteratura sui cicli economici, Istituto Nazionale per lo Studio della Congiuntura, Roma, 1979, Pp. 31-66.

 

                              “Prediction and Forecasting, Economic” in International

                              Encyclopedia of Statistics, W. H. Kruskal and J. M. Tanur, eds.,

                              The Fress Press 1979 (an updated version of the article for the 1968

                              International Encyclopedia of the Social Sciences).

 

                              “An Analysis of Annual and Multiperiod Quarterly Forecasts of

                              Aggregate Income, Output, and the Price level,” Journal of

                              Business, vol. 52, no. 1, January 1979, Pp. 1-33.

 

                              “The Recession and Recovery of 1973-76” (with G. H. Moore),

                              Explorations in Economic Research, vol. 4, no. 4, Fall 1977, Pp.

                              471-557.

 

                              Handbook of Cyclical Indicators, U.S. Department of Commerce,

                              Bureau of Economic Analysis, Washington, D.C. , 1977 (co-

                              author).

 

                              “How Good Are the Leading Indicators?” (with B.N. Vaccara),

                              1977 Proceedings of the Business and Economic Statistics

                              Section, American Statistics Association, Washington, D.C.,

                              1978, Pp. 41-51.

 

                              “On the Accuracy and Properties of Recent Macroeconomic

                              Forecasts,” The American Economic Review, Papers and

                                Proceedings, February 1978, Pp. 313-319.

 

“Forecasting in Economics: State-of-the-Art, Problems, and Prospects, "in The Study of the Future: An Agenda for Research, ed. Wayne L. Boucher, National Science Foundation, Washington, D.C., 1977.

 

Signals and Confirmations of Economic Change, Selected Paper No. 46, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago, 1976.

 

“Wesley C. Mitchell,” Encyclopedia of World Biography, New York: McGraw-Hill Book  company, 1975.

 

“New Composite Indexes of Coincident and Lagging Indicators" (with Charlotte Boschan), Business  ConditionsDigest (BCD) November 1975, Pp. 5-24

     

“Cyclical Indicators: An Evaluation  and New Leading Indexes” (with Charlotte Boschan), BCD, May 1975, Pp. 5-22.

 

“How Accurate Have the Forecasts Been?” in Methods and Techniques of Business Forecasting, edited by William F. Butler, Robert A. Kavesh, and Robert B. Platt, Englewood Cliffs, N. J.: Prentice-Hall, Inc., 1974, Pp. 565-596.

 

Orders, Production, and Investment: A Cyclical and Structural Analysis, National Bureau of economic Research (NBER).  Distributed by Columbia University Press, New York and London, 1973.  Pp. xxi, 759.

 

“Simulations and Forecasting with Macroeconomic Models—An Overview”, Proceedings of  the IEEE Conference on Decisions and Control (including 12th Symposium on Adaptive Proceedings), San Diego, 1973.

 

“The Business Cycle Today, V. Zarnowitz, editor, Columbia University Press for NBER, New York, 1972.” The Business Cycle Today: And Introduction," ibid., Pp. 1-38.

 

“Econometric Model Simulations and the Cyhclical Characteristics of the U.S. Economy”, idid., Pp.241-259.

 

Promise and Performance in Economic Forecasting, Selected Paper No. 41, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago, 1972.

 

“Die Einflusse der Methode und der Zeitspanne von Voraussetzungen auf ihre Treffsicherheit”, Ifo-Studien, Munich, 1972, Pp. 479-501.

 

“Business Cycle Analysis of Econometric Model Simulations (with Georffrey H. Moore and Charlotte Boschan), in Econometric Models of Cyclical Behavior, Bert G. Hickman, editor, in Studies in Income and Wealth, No. 36, NBER, 1972, vol. 1, Pp. 311-533.

 

“Konjunkturnanalyse und-prognose: Uber Beitrage des National Bureau of Economic Research”, Wirtschaftswissenchaftliches Studium, October 1972, Pp. 463-476.

 

“Macroeconomic Forecasting: Promise, Performance, and Prospects”, Proceedings of the Business and Economic Statistics Section, American Statistical Association, 132nd Annual Meeting, 1972, Pp. 117-122.

 

“Criteria for Evaluation of Economic Models” (with Phoebus J. Dhrymes et al.) Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, vol. 1, no. 3, July 1972, Pp. 291-324.

 

“New Plans and Results of Research in Economic Forecasting”, 51st Annual Report of the NBER, 1971, Pp. 53-70, no 278 in the Reprint Series of Center for Mathematical Studies in Business and economics, University of Chicago.

 

The ASA-NBER Quarterly Survey of the Economic Outlook: An Early Appraisal”: Proceedings of the Business and Economic Statistics Section, American Statistical Association, 129th Annual Meeting, 1969, Pp. 241-249.

 

“The New ASA-NBER Survey of Forecasts by Economic Statisticians”, The American Statistician, February 1969, Pp. 12-16.  Represented as a Supplement to the National Bureau Report, No. 4.

 

“The Evaluation of Economic Forecasts (with Jacob Mincer), in Economic Forecasts and Expectations: Analysis of Forecasting Behavior and Performance.  Columbia University Press for NBER, 1969, Pp. 3-46.

 

“An Evaluation of Price Level Forecasts,” Proceedings of the Business and Economics Statistics Section, American Statistical association, 128th Annual Meeting, 1968, pp 284-289.

 

“Prediction and Forecasting, Economic,” International Encyclopedia of the Social Sciences, 1968, vol 12, Pp. 425-439.

 

“Wesley C. Mitchell,” ibid., vol. 10, Pp. 373-378.

 

An Appraisal of Short-Term Economic Forecasts, Columbia University Press for NBER, New York, 1967.

 

“Eine Auswertung von kurzfristigen Wirtschaftsvoraussagen un den USA,” Ifo-Studien, Munich, 1967, Pp. 1-41.

 

“How Accurate Are the Forecasts?” Challenge, January-February 1966, Pp. 20-23,44.

 

“On the Accuracy and Properties of Short-Term Economic Forecasts.” 45th Annual Report of the NBER, 1965, Pp. 15-25.

 

Forecasting Business Conditions: A Critical View, Selected Paper No. 15, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago, 1965.

 

“Naïve Models in Business Forecasting.” Modern Techniques for Effective Forecasting, American Statistical Association, Chicago, 1965, Pp. 159-166.

 

“On the Dating of Business Cycles,” Journal of Business, April, 1963, Pp. 179-199.

 

Unfilled Orders, Price Changes, and Business Fluctuations, Occasional Paper 84, NBER, 1962.  Reprinted from The Review of Economics and Statistics, November 1962, Pp. 367-394.

 

“Index Numbers and the Seasonality of Quantities and Prices,” Staff Paper No. 5, The Price Statistics of The Federal Government, NBER, 1961, Pp. 233-304.

 

“The Timing of Manufactures’ Orders During Business Cycles,” in Business Cycle Indicators (G.H. Moore, editor), NBER, 1961, Pp. 420-480.

 

“Cyclical Changes in Business Failures and Corporate Profits” (with L. J. Lerner), ibid., Pp. 350-385.

 

“Cyclical Aspects of Incorporations and the Formation of New Business Enterprise,” Business Cycle Indicators (G .H. Moore, editor), NBER, 1961, Pp. 386-419.

 

“Cause and Consequences of changes in General Equilibirium Systems,” Review of Economic Studies, June 1956, Pp. 109-125.

 

Die Theorie de Einkommenverteilung, Entwicklung und heutiger Stand, J. C. B. Mohr, Paul Siebeck, Tubigen, 1951.

 

 

B.     Short Articles, Comments and Abstracts

 

“USA”-monthly column of comments on business conditions and forecast (various titles), Economic Forecasts: A Worldwide Survey, vol. I, nos. 1-6 (July-Dec., 1984); vol. II, nos. 1-12 (Jan-Dec, 1986), North-Holland.

 

“Econometric Models Are Shapely, but Rather Dense,” (with B. N. Vaccara), Konjunkturindikatoren. Ifo-instutut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Munich, December 1979.

 

“Deliberations on How and When the Recession Began,” Crandall’s Business Index, 56th Year, no. 33 June 1980.

 

“The Short and Longer Prospects for the Economy Today,” Crandall’s Business Index, October 26, 1979.

 

“Some Reflections on the Economy in Spring 1979, ibid., May 25, 1979.

 

“The Timeliness of Economic Data Forecasting,” 1975 Proceedings of The Business and Economic Statistics Section, American Statistical Association, Pp. 147-150.

 

“Economics ’77 column, Chicago Tribune, January 17, 1977;

“Economics ’76 ibid., August 39, 1976.

 

“The Timing and the Severity of the Recession of the 1980” (with Geoffrey Moore), NBER Reporter, Spring 1981.

 

“On the Predictive Value of Economic Information and Models: Lessons from the Record of U.S. Macroforecasts,” ibid., Spring 1979.

 

“The Surprise of 1983-84 and Scenarios for 1985-86”, Economic Outlook USA, First Quarter 1985, vol. 12, no. 1.

 

“How Healthy and Durable Is the Current Expansion?” ibid., Spring 1984, vol. 11, no. 2.

 

“Some Lessons from Research in Macroeconomic Forecasting”, ibid., Autumn 1983, vol. 10 no. 4.

 

“The Economy and the Forecasts after a Bad Year”, ibid., Winter 1983, vol. 10, no. 1.

 

“Crosscurrents of Recession and Recovery”, ibid., Autumn 1982, vol. 9, no. 4.

 

“The Adversities of 1981 and Uncertainties of 1982: A Survey of Forecasts,” ibid., Winter 1982, vol. 9, no. 1.

 

“Where Are We Now and Where Are We Heading? ibid., Autumn 1981, vol. 8, no. 4.

 

“The Economy in 1980 and 1981: Retrospect and Prospect,” ibid., Winter 1981, vol. 8, no. 1.

 

“A Joyless Recovery?, ibid., Autumn 1980, vol. 7, no. 4.

 

“Forecasts for 1979 and 1980: An Assessment and A Survey,” ibid., Winter 1980, vol. 7, no. 1.

 

“The Inflation-Recession Dilemma: Predictions and Puzzles,” ibid., Autumn 1979, vol. 6, no. 4.

 

“The Economy Under Stress and Business Investment,” ibid., Spring 1979, vol. 6, no. 2.

 

“Exploring the Unknown: A Survey of Forecasts for 1978-79,” ibid., Winter 1978-79, vol. 6, no. 1.

 

“New Worries About Old Problems,” ibid., Autumn 1978, vol. 5, no. 4.

 

“The Outlook at Midyear,” ibid., Summer 1978, vol., 5, no. 3.

 

“How Well Do Economists Forecast Growth, Recession, and Inflation?” ibid., Spring 1978, vol. 5,

no. 2.

 

“A Survey of Forecasts for 1976-77, ibid., Summer 1976, vol. 3, no. 2.

 

“Current Forecasts and Probabilities for 1976-77, ibid., Summer 1976, vol. 3,  no. 3.

 

“Prospects for Current Expansion and Business Investment,” ibid., Spring 1976, vol. 3, no. 2.

 

“The Economy in 1976: Forecasts from the ASA-NBER Survey,” ibid., Winter 1976, vol. 3, no. 1.

 

“Business Investment in Recession and Recovery,” ibid., Autumn 1975, vol. 2, no. 4.

 

“Signals and Forecasts of Cyclical Change,” ibid., Summer 1975, vol. 2, no. 2.

 

“The ASA-NBER Forecasters’ Panel Looks at 1975,” ibid.,  Winter 1975, vol. 2, no. 1.

 

“Inflation, Recession, and Business Investment,” ibid., Autumn 1974, vol. 1, no. 4.

 

“Real Capital Formation-Sluggish,” ibid., Summer 1974, vol. 1, no. 3.

 

“Business Capital Spending: A Case for Guarded Optimism,: ibid., Spring 1974, vol. 1, no. 2.

 

“Plant and Equipment Spending Surprisingly Strong,” ibid., Winter 1974, vol. 1, no. 1.

 

“Econometric Model Stimulation and the Cyclical Characteristics of the U.S. Economy”, Abstract of a paper presented at the Second World Congress of the Econometric Society, Econometrica, July 1971, Pp.103-104.

 

“Comment” on Sachs and Hart, “Anticipation and Investment Behavior”, in Determinants of Investment Behavior, Columbia University Press for NBER, New York, 1967, Pp. 5896-599.

 

“Cloos on Reference Dates and Leading Indicators:  A Comment”, Journal of Business, October 1963, Pp.461-463.

 

“Discussion” in session on “Inventory Forecasting—Coming Improvements in the 1960’s” Proceedings of the Business and Economic Statistics Section, American Statistical Association, 120th Annual Meeting, 1960, Pp. 109-110.

 

“Backlog Accumulation and Price Change”, Abstract of a paper presented at the 1959 Annual Meeting of the Econometric Society, Econometrica, July 1960, Pp. 710-712.

 

C. Book Reviews

 

The Business Cycle and Public Policy, 1929-80.  A Compendium of Papers Submitted to the Joint Economic Committee, Congress of the United States.  Joint Committee Print, 96th Cong., 2d Sess., Nov. 28, 180.  Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1980.  In Journal of Economic Literature, December 1981, Pp. 1604-1606.*

 

Is the Business Cycle Obsolete?  Edited by Martin Bronfenbrenner.  Based on a Conference of the Social Science Research Council New York:  Wiley-Interscience, 1969.  In Journal of the American Statistical Association, June 1972, Pp. 405-496.

 

Federal Budget Protections, Gerald Colm and Peter Wagner, Washington, D.C.  The Brookings Institution, 1966.  In Journal of the American Statistical Association, December 1967, Pp. 1500-1502.

 

Federal Fiscal Policy in the Postwar Recessions, Wilfred Lewis, Jr., Washington, D.C.”:  The Brookings Institution, 1962.  In Journal of Political Economy, December 1963, Pp. 618-620.

 

Measuring Business Changes:  A Handbook of Significant Business Indicators, Richard M. Snyder, New York:  John Wiley and Sons, Inc., 1955.  In Econometrica, July 1959, Pp. 501-503.

 

D. National Bureau of Economic Research Annual Reports, Reports on “Cyclical Behavior of Manufacturers’ Orders”, 1957-59; “Credit Ratings of Business Concerns”, 1959; “Orders and Production in Manufacturing Industries”, 1960, 1962-63; “Study of Short-Term Economic Forecasting”, 1964-75; “Investment Commitments and Realizations”, 1967; “Cyclical Behavior of Orders, Production, and Investment”, 1968; “Business Cycle Analysis of Econometric Model Simulations”, 1969-70; “Business Cycles—Introduction”, “Evaluation of Cyclical Indicators”, 1973-76; “Evaluating Forecasting Performance of Econometric Models”, 175-76; “The Recession and Recovery of 1973-76; “Cyclical Indicators”, and “Short-Term Economic Forecasting”, 1977; (1957, Pp.62-64; 1958, Pp. 35-38; 1959, Pp. 53-54, 59-62; 1960, Pp.40-41; 1962, p.70; 1963, Pp.66-68; 1964, Pp.89-95; 1965, Pp. 59-60; 1966, Pp.80, 82, 85; 1970, Pp. 84-85; 1971, Pp. 114-115; 1972, Pp. 26-28, 33-34; 1973, Pp. 53-54; 1974, Pp. 31-33; 1975, Pp. 26-29, 38-39; 1976, Pp. 25-29; 1977, Pp. 34-40).

 

D. Editor’s Contributions—Unsigned

 

Economic Prospects—A Quarterly Report

 

Winter 1971/72 (vol. I, no. 1)       “Forecasts of Economic Activity”, p.5.

Spring 1972 (vol. I, no. 3)             “Business Capital Outlays and

                                                         Economic Activity”, Pp. 6-7.

Fall 1972 (vol. I, no. 4)                 “Capital Outlays—Growth Resumes

                                                         After Short Setback”, Pp. 5-6.

Winter 1972-73 (vol. II, no. 1)      “Business Investment—Is the Long-

                                                         Expected Upsurge at Hand?” Pp. 5-6.

Summer 1973 (vol. II, no. 3)          “Business Investment Spending—Is

                                                          The Peak in Sight?” Pp. 5-6.

Fall 1973 (vol. II, no.4)                   “The Best and the Worst of Business

                                                          Investment Prospects”, Pp. 5-6.

 

E.     Conference and Working Papers

 

"Das Alte und das Neue am amerikanischen Wirtschaftsaufschwung der neunziger Jahr."  RWI - Mitteilungen 2000, Jg. 51(1), 45-90.

 

“The Old and The New in U.S. Economic Expansion of The 1990s”, National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 7721, May 2000; updated version to be published in Proceedings of the 48th Annual Conference on the Economic and Social Outlook, RSQE, The University of Michigan, November 2000.

 

"The Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators: How to Make It More Timely" (with R. McGuckin and A. Ozyildirim). 

Paper presented at the 25th CIRET Conference, Paris, October 2000.

 

"The Coincident and Leading Indexes for Poland After Two Years of Observation" (with Maria Drozdowicz-Biec).

Paper presented at the 25th CIRET Conference, Paris, October 2000.

 

"Time Series Decomposition and Measurement of Business Cycles, Trends and Growth Cycles".

Paper presented for the Meeting of The Conference Board Advisory Committee, March 2000 (revised and updated October 2000).

 

“Forecasting Recessions Under the Gramm-Rudman Law, “International Symposium on Forecasting”, Paris, June 1986.

 

“The Record and Improbability of Economic Forecasting”, American Economic Association Annual Meeting, Dec. 1985.

 

“Measurement of Uncertainty by Business Survey—Discussion”, 17th CIRET Conference, Vienna, September 1985.

 

“On the Selection, Appraisal, and Record of Cyclical Indicators”, in preparation, 1986.

 

“Comments on Forecasting with Time-Series Models, Econmetric Models, and Cyclical Indicators”, Western Economic Association Annual Meeting, Las Vegas, June 1984.

 

“Expectations and Forecasts from Business Outlook Surveys”, Working Paper No. 845, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass., February 1982.

 

Economic and Business Forecasting:  Analytical Foundations, Methods, and Performance.  Several chapters in draft form, January 1980.

 

“U.S. Growth Cycle Indicators:  The Reference Chronology and the Leads and Lags”, September 1979.

 

“Information, Measurement, and Prediction in Economics”. Working Paper No. 318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass., February 1979.

 

“Forecasting with the Index of Leading Indicators” (with B.N. Vaccara), Working paper No. 244, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass., May 1978.

 

“Recent Work on Cyclical Indicators of Business Fluctuations in the United States”, Report Prepared for the Meeting on International Economic Indicators, Economic and Statistics Department, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Paris, September 1977.

 

“Some Lessons from a Review of Indicators of Business Fluctuations in the United States” (Paper Presented at the 12th CIRET Conference, Stockholm, June 1975).

 

“A Review of Cyclical Indicators for the United States:  Preliminary Results”, Working Paper No. 6, National Bureau of Economic Research, New York, 1973.

 

“The Record of Turning-Point Forecasts of GNP and Other Major Aggregates” (Presented to the Conference on Forecasting and Recognizing Turns in the Business Cycles, National Association of Business Economists and NBER, Long Island University, March 1968.

 

“The Quality and Significance of Price Level Forecasts”, National Bureau of Economic Research, 1968.

 

“Earning Forecasts and Stock Prices:  A Study in Quarterly Time Series” (with Lawrence Fisher; presented to the Seminar on the Analysis of Security Prices, University of Chicago, May 1968.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


*Foundation for International Business and Economic Research, Inc. New York is the exclusive licensee of research products developed by the Center for International Business Cycle Research (CIBCR), Columbia University, New York.

* Reprinted in Economic Impact, a quarterly Journal of U.S. International Communication Agency, published in English and Spanish for distribution abroad.