Department of Economics
Yale University
37 Hillouse Ave.
New Haven, CT 06520-8264
(203) 432-6292 or 432-3560

Born October 21, 1942


Harvard College, September 1959 - June 1963, Mathematics, magna cum laude
University of California-Berkeley, September 1963 - June 1964
Harvard University, February 1968, Ph.D., Economics


Econometric theory for dynamic models; macroeconomic theory and policy




  1. "Evaluating Short-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts: The Dutch Experience", Review of Economics and Statistics, May 1967.

  2. "Efficiency in the Construction Industry", Report of the President's Committee on Urban Housing, Technical Studies, Vol. II.

  3. "A Theoretical Basis for Double-Deflation of Value Added", Review of Economics and Statistics, November 1969.

  4. "Comment on Zeckhauser and Thompson's Study of Non-Normality in Regression", Review of Economics and Statistics, 1971.

  5. "Discrete Approximations to Continuous Time Distributed Lags in Econometrics", Econometrica, May 1971.

  6. "Distributed Lag Estimation When the Parameter-Space is Explicitly Infinite-Dimensional", Annals of Mathematical Statistics, October 1971.

  7. "Approximate Specification in Distributed Lag Models", invited paper for the 38th Session of the International Statistical Institute, August 1971. Published in Bulletin of the International Statistical Institute Proceedings volume.

  8. "Are There Exogenous Variables in Short-Run Production Relations?", Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, January 1971.

  9. "Money, Income and Causality", American Economic Review, September 1972. "The Role of Approximate Prior Restrictions in Distributed Lag Estimation", Journal of the American Statistical Association, March 1972.

  10. "Distributed Lags", survey paper in Frontiers of Quantitative Economics II, edited by Intrilligator and Kendrick (Amsterdam: North-Holland), 1974.

  11. "Seasonality in Regression", Journal of the American Statistical Association, September 1974.

  12. "Optimal Stable Policies for Unstable Instruments", Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, 1974.

  13. "Comments and Rejoinders on Matching Procedures for the Creation of Artificial Data Sets", Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, July 1972 and April 1974.

  14. "Output and Labor Input in Manufacturing", Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1974.

  15. "A Note on Exact Tests for Serial Correlations", Journal of the American Statistical Association, March 1975.

  16. "Remarks on Real Value Added", Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, 1977.

  17. "Business Cycle Modeling Without Much A Priori Economic Theory" (with Thomas J. Sargent), in New Methods in Business Cycle Research, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, 1977.

  18. "Exogeneity and Causal Orderings in Macroeconomic Models", in New Methods in Business Cycle Research, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, 1977.

  19. "Macroeconomics and Reality", Econometrica, January 1980, pp. 1-48.

  20. "Comparison of Interwar and Postwar Business Cycles: Monetarism Reconsidered", American Economic Review 70(2), May 1980, pp. 250-257.

  21. "An autoregressive index model for the U.S., 1948-1975," In Large-scale macro-econometric models: Theory and practice, ed. J. Kmenta and J. B. Ramsey. Contributions to Economic Analysis, vol. 141. Amsterdam: North-Holland, 1981.

  22. "What Kind of Science is Economics: A Review of Causality in Economics by John R. Hicks", Journal of Political Economy, 1981.

  23. "Scientific Standards in Econometric Modeling", in Current Developments in the Interface: Economics, Econometrics, Mathematics, edited by Hazelwinkel and Kan (Amsterdam: D. Reidel), 1982, pp. 317-340.

  24. "Policy Analysis With Econometric Models", Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1982, pp. 107-152.

  25. "Is There a Monetary Business Cycle?", American Economic Review, May 1983, pp. 228-234.

  26. "Nearly Efficient Estimation of Time Series Models With Predetermined, but not Exogenous, Investments" (with F. Hayashi), Econometrica, May 1983, pp. 783-798.

  27. "Forecasting and Conditional Projection Using Realistic Prior Distributions" (with T. Doan and R. Litterman), Econometric Reviews, 1984, No. 1.

  28. Review of Specification, Estimation and Analysis of Econometric Models, by Ray C. Fair, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, February 1986, pp. 121-126.

  29. "Are Forecasting Models Usable for Policy Analysis?", Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank Quarterly Review 10, Winter 1986, pp. 2-16.

  30. "A Rational Expectations Framework For Short Run Policy Analysis", pp. 293310 in New Approaches to Monetary Economics, W. Barnett and K. Singleton, eds., Cambridge University Press, 1987.

  31. "Multiple Time Series" and "Continuous and Discrete Time Models", in The New Palgrave, MacMillan, 1987.

  32. "ARMA Index Modeling as Estimation in Infinite Dimensional Parameter Space" (comment on a paper by Herman Bierens), Journal of Econometric Theory, 4. "Identifying Policy Effects", in Empirical Macroeconomics for Interdependent Economies, Ralph Bryant et al., eds., Brookings 1988, pp. 305-321.

  33. "Making Economics Credible", p. 49-60 in the volume of invited papers for the 1985 World Congress of the Econometric Society. MacMillan.

  34. "Comment on 'Vector Autoregressions and Reality', by David Runkle", Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, October 1987.

  35. "Bayesian Skepticism on Unit Root Econometrics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 12, June/Sept. 1988, p. 463-474.

  36. "Uncertainty Across Models," American Economic Review Proceedings Issue, May 1988, pp. 163-167.

  37. "Models and their Uses," American Journal of Agricultural Economics 71, May 1989, p. 489-494.

  38. "Projecting Policy Effects with Statistical Models," Revista de Analisis Economico, November 1988, pp. 3-20.

  39. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots" (with James Stock and Mark Watson), Econometrica 58, January 1990, p. 113-144.

  40. "Understanding Unit Rooters: A Helicopter Tour" (with H.D. Uhlig), Econometrica 59, November 1991, 1591-99.

  41. "Rational Expectations Modeling with Seasonally Adjusted Data", Journal of Econometrics, 55, 1993, 9-19.

  42. "Comment on 'To Criticize the Critics' by Peter C.B. Phillips", Journal of Applied Econometrics, 6, 1991, 423-434.

  43. "Interpreting the Macroeconomic Time Series Facts: The Effects of Monetary Policy," European Economic Review, 36, 1992, 975-1011.

  44. "Empirical Implications of Arbitrage-Free Asset Markets," (with S. Maheswaran) in Models, Methods and Applications of Econometrics, Peter C. B. Phillips, ed., Basil Blackwell 1993.

  45. Comment in Evaluating Policy Regimes, Ralph Bryant, Peter Hooper and Catherine Mann, editors, Brookings 1993, 430-443.

  46. "A 9 Variable Probabilistic Macroeconomic Forecasting Model," in Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting, James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson, editors, NBER Studies in Business Cycles Volume 28, 1993, 179-214.

  47. "Toward a Modern Macro Model Usable for Policy Analysis," (with Eric Leeper), NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 1994, 81-117.

  48. "A Simple Model for Study of the Determination of the Price Level and the Interaction of Monetary and Fiscal Policy," Economic Theory 4, 1994, 381-399.

  49. "Econometric Implications of the Government Budget Constraint", to appear in a festschrift in honor of Carl Christ, 1997.

  50. "Macroeconomics and Methodology", Journal of Economic Perspectives, 10, Winter 1996, 105-120.

  51. "What Does Monetary Policy Do?", (with Eric Leeper and Tao Zha), Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2:1996, 1-63.

  52. "Bayesian Methods for Dynamic Multivariate Models", (with Tao Zha), forthcoming, International Economic Review, 1997.


  1. "Asymptotic Distribution Theory for a Class of Nonlinear Estimation Methods", DiscussionPaper #76-69, Center for Economic Research, University of Minnesota, 1976.

  2. "Exogeneity Tests and Multivariate Time Series: Part I", Discussion Paper #75-74, Center for Economic Research, University of Minnesota, 1975. Part of this paper's substance appeared in a comment on a paper by David A. Pierce in Journal of the American Statistical Association, March 1977, p.23-24.

  3. "Least Squares Estimation of Autoregression With Some Unit Roots", Discussion Paper #78-95, Center for Economic Research, University of Minnesota, 1978.

  4. "International Evidence of Monetary Factors in Macroeconomic Fluctuations", Discussion Paper #80-137, Center for Economic Research, University of Minnesota, September 1980.

  5. "Martingale-Like Behavior of Prices and Interest Rates", Discussion Paper #205, Center for Economic Research, University of Minnesota, 1984.

  6. "Solving Nonlinear Stochastic Optimization and Equilibrium Problems Backwards," IEM Discussion Paper #15, May 1989.

  7. "BAYESMTH: A Program for Multivariate Bayesian Interpolation", Discussion Paper #234, Center for Economic Research, University of Minnesota, 1986.

  8. "VAR Macroeconometrics: An Update," March 1991.

  9. "Asymptotic Behavior of the Likelihood in an Autoregression with a Unit Root," October 1990.

  10. "Bayesian Inference for Multivariate Time Series with Trend," presented at the 1992 American Statistical Association meetings.

  11. "Error Bands for Impulse Responses," (with Tao Zha) processed July 1995.

  12. "Does Monetary Policy Cause Recessions?", (with Tao Zha) processed 1994.


The Dynamics of Productivity Change: A Theoretical and Empirical Study. Harvard University, 1968.