February, 2002
CURRICULUM VITAE
Michael D. Hurd
Present Positions:
Senior Economist and
Director, RAND Center for the Study of Aging
RAND
1700 Main Street
Santa Monica, CA 90407
Telephone (310) 393-0411 *6945
FAX (310) 451-6923
E-mail: mhurd@rand.org
Research Associate
National Bureau of Economic Research
1050 Massachusetts Avenue,
Cambridge, MA 02138
Past Positions:
Assistant Professor,
Stanford University, 1971‑1978
Associate Professor, SUNY at
Stony Brook, 1978‑1987
Visiting Associate Professor
of Economics, Stanford University, 1981‑1982 Visiting Professor, School of Business Administration,
University of California, Berkeley,
1984‑1985
Visiting Associate Professor
of Economics, Stanford University, 1985
Professor, SUNY at Stony
Brook, 1987‑ 2000
Chairman, Department of
Economics, SUNY at Stony Brook, 1991-1992.
Visiting Senior Scientist,
Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan, 1997
Education and Degrees:
University of Utah, 1959‑1964:
B.S., Electrical Engineering.
University of California,
Berkeley, 1967‑1971:
M.S., Statistics
Ph.D., Economics
Scholarships, Fellowships, and Honors:
National Science Foundation
Graduate Traineeship
Ford Foundation Career
Fellowship
Department of Labor Manpower
Dissertation Grant
Mellon Fellowship, 1974
NBER Faculty Research
Fellowship, 1977‑1978
Hoover Institution National
Fellow, 1981‑1982
Member, National Academy of
Social Insurance, 1989‑
Chair, Economics of Aging
Formal Interest Group, Gerontological Society, 1995-1996
1998 Fulvio Guerrini Lecture, University of Turin
Government, Public and Professional Service:
Consultant to NIA on
reinterviewing the Retirement History Survey.
Consultant to SSA on
reinterviewing the New Beneficiary Survey.
Consultant to NIA on Health
and Retirement Survey.
Member of The Technical
Panel of Experts to the Quadrennial Social Security Advisory Council, 1990.
Committee on Economic Status
for the Health and Retirement Study, 1990-1991.
Steering Committee for the
Health and Retirement Study, 1990-
Member of the Panel of
Experts to the Quadrennial Social Security Advisory Council, 1991.
Steering Committee for
Transfers and Income of the Impaired, a module for the
PSID, 1992-93
Organizer of session on Economic Well-Being of the Elderly in Developed Countries, 1992 Annual Meetings of the Population Association of America.
Advisory Committee for the
World Bank Old-Age Security Study, 1992-1993.
Workshop on Forecasting
Disability, National Academy of Sciences, October, 1993.
Lectures on demographic
changes, mortality risk and pensions:
Netherlands Graduate
School of Economics, Workshop on Pensions and Public Finance in an Aging Society, 1993.
Co-PI,
Asset and Health Dynamics among the Oldest-Old, 1992-1999
Co-PI,
Health and Retirement Study, 1995-present
Senior
Investigator, Health and Retirement Study, 1995-1999
Panel
on Retirement Income Modeling, Committee on National Statistics,
National Research Council, 1995-96
Workshop
on Priorities for Data on the Aging Population, Committee on National
Statistics, National
Research Council, 1996.
Social Security
Advisory Board: forum on “A Long-Range Research and Program Evaluation Agenda
for the Social Security Administration, 1997.
Temporary Member, Social
Sciences and Population Study Section, NIH, 1997
Member, Behavior and Sociology of
Aging Review Subcommittee NIH (NIA-S), 1998-
Member of the Scientific Committee of The Center for
Research on Pensions and
Welfare Policies, University
of Turin, Italy, 1999-
Consultant to the English
Longitudinal Study of Aging, 2000-
Consultant
to the Survey on Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe, 2000-
Major Research Grants:
"A
Compensation Measure of the Cost of Unemployment to the Unemployed," 1974‑1975,
from ASPER/Labor.
"Transfers within
Social Security," with John Shoven, July, 1982‑Sept, 1983, from
ASPE/HHS.
"The Saving
Behavior of the Elderly," July, 1984‑ July, 1986, from ASPE/HHS.
"Elderly
People Living Alone: Aging and the
Prospects of Poverty," with David Wise, July, 1986‑June, 1987, from
the Commonwealth Fund.
"The Joint
Retirement Decision of Husbands and Wives," Oct, 1986‑Oct, 1987,
from Social Security Administration (SSA).
"Studies in
the Consumption and Wealth of the Elderly," Oct, 1987‑Dec., 1990,
from National Institute on Aging (NIA).
"Forecasting
the Consumption and Wealth of the Elderly," Oct, 1988‑Dec., 1990,
from SSA.
"Income and
Savings of the Elderly," May, 1989‑Dec., 1990, from AARP Andrus
Foundation.
"Changing
Social Security Survivorship Benefits," with David Wise, May, 1989‑Nov.,
1990, from the Commonwealth Fund.
"Asset and
Health Dynamics among the Oldest-Old," June, 1992-December, 1992(Co-PI)
from
NIA.
"Asset and
Health Dynamics among the Oldest-Old," January, 1993-December, 1994
(Co-PI)
from NIA.
"Wealth and
Differential Mortality," senior investigator. D. McFadden, PI, Jan.,
1994-Dec., 1998 from NIA
"Asset and
Health Dynamics among the Oldest-Old," January, 1995-December, 1999
(Co-PI)
from NIA.
"Health and
Retirement Study," January, 1995-December, 1999 (Co-PI) from NIA
"Subjective
Beliefs and Saving Behavior," Jan, 1995-Dec., 1996, from NIA
"Using
Subjective Information to Explain Savings Decisions," October,
1995-August, 1996,
from NIA
"Using
Subjective Information to Explain Savings Decisions," August, 1996-April,
2002, from
NIA
“The Value of Medicare,” October,
1997-September, 1999, from NIA
“Real
Wealth Change between 1982 and 1991 among the Newly Retired, Feb,
1998-February, 2002, from Social Security Administration
“Exploratory Psychological
Explanations for Savings,” March 1998-February 2000, from AARP Andrus
Foundation.
“Economic and Demographic Determinants of
Bequests,” July, 1998-June, 2003, from
NIA
“Health and Economic Status in Older
Populations,” October, 1998-September, 2003 from NIA
“RAND Center for the Study of Aging,”
July, 1994-June, 1999 from NIA
“RAND Center for the
Study of Aging,” August, 1999-July, 2004 from NIA
“Health and
Retirement Study,” January, 2000-December, 2005 (Co-PI) from NIA
“Evaluation of
the Effects of Changing Social Security Early Entitlement and Normal Retirement
Age,” May, 2000-March, 2002 (Co-PI) from SSA
“Health Status
& Medical Treatment of Future Elderly- Implications for Medicare Program
Expenditures,” June, 1999-June, 2002 (Co-PI) from CMS
“Expected
Bequests & Their Distribution,” August, 2001-July, 2006 (Co-PI) from NIA
“Mortality Risk
and Early Retirement,” October, 1999-October, 2002, from SSA
“Wage Growth and
Saving for Retirement,” February, 2002-May, 2003, from SSA
“Internet Interviewing and the HRS,” April,
2002-March, 2007 (Co-PI) from NIA
Publications
Book
The Economic
Effects of Aging in the United States and Japan, co-edited with Naohiro
Yashiro, 1997, University of Chicago
Press.
Papers
"Changes in Wage Rates Between 1957 and
1967," Review of Economics and
Statistics, 53 (May 1971), pp. 189‑199.
"Small Sample Estimation of a Structural
Equation with Autocorrelated Errors," Journal
of the American Statistical Association, 67 (September, 1972), pp. 567‑573.
"The Hickman‑Coen Annual Growth Model:
Structural Characteristics and Policy Responses," (with Bert Hickman and
Robert M. Coen), International Economic
Review, 20 (February, 1975), pp. 20‑37.
"The Effect of Social Security on Early
Retirement," (with Michael Boskin), Journal
of Public Economics, 10, (December,1978),pp. 361‑377.
"Estimation in Truncated Samples When There Is
Heteroscedasticity," Journal of
Econometrics, 11 (December, 1979), pp. 247‑258.
"A Compensation Measure of the Cost of
Unemployment to the Unemployed," Quarterly
Journal of Economics, 95 (September, 1980), pp. 225‑243.
"A Utility‑Based Analysis of the Wage
Subsidy Program" (with John Pencavel), Journal
of Public Economics, 15 (April, 1981), pp. 185‑201.
"Real Income and Wealth of the Elderly"
(with John Shoven), American Economic
Review, 62 (May 1982), pp. 314‑318.
"The Economic Status of the Elderly,"
(with John Shoven), in Financial Aspects
of the United States Pension System, Z. Bodie and J. Shoven (editors), The
University of Chicago Press, 1983, pp. 359‑398.
"The Effect of Social Security on Retirement in
the Early 1970's," (with Michael Boskin), Quarterly Journal of Economics, 99 (November, 1984), pp. 767‑790.
"The Distributional Impact of Social
Security," (with John Shoven), in Pensions,
Labor and Individual Choice, D. Wise (editor), The University of Chicago
Press, 1985, pp. 193‑221.
"Inflation Vulnerability, Income and Assets of
the Elderly, 1969‑ 1979," (with John Shoven), in Horizontal Equity, Uncertainty and Economic
Well‑Being, T. Smeeding and M. David (editors), The University of
Chicago Press, 1985, pp. 125‑177.
"Indexing Social Security Benefits: A Separate
Price Index for the Elderly?" (with Michael Boskin), Public Finance Quarterly, 13 (October, 1985), pp. 436‑449.
"Savings of the Elderly and Desired
Bequests," American Economic Review,
77 (June, 1987), pp. 298‑312.
"Forecasting the Consumption and Wealth of the
Elderly," in Social Security and
Private Pensions: Providing for
Retirement in the 21st Century, S. Wachter (editor), D.C. Health, and Co.,
1988, pp. 47‑69.
"The Wealth and Poverty of Widows: Assets Before and After the Husband's
Death," (with David Wise), in The
Economics of Aging, D. Wise (editor), The University of Chicago Press,
1989, pp. 177‑199.
"The Poverty of Widows: Future Prospects," in The Economics of Aging, D. Wise
(editor), The University of Chicago Press, 1989, pp. 201‑222.
"The Annuity Value of Social Security," in
The Political Economy of Social Security,
B. A. Gustafsson and N. Anders Klevmarken (Editors), Amsterdam: Elsevier
Science Publishers B.V., 1989, pp. 67‑82.
"The Joint Retirement Decision of Husbands and
Wives," Social Security Bulletin,
January, 1989, pp. 29-32.
"The Economic Status of the Elderly," Science, 244, (May 12, 1989), pp. 659‑644.
"The Importance of Gifts and Inheritances among
the Affluent," (with B. Gabriella Mundaca), in The Measurement of Saving,
Investment, and Wealth, R. Lipsey and H. Tice (editors), The
University of Chicago Press, 1989, pp. 737‑758.
"Mortality Risk and Bequests," Econometrica, 57 (July, 1989), pp. 779‑813.
"Research on the Elderly: Economic Status,
Retirement, and Consumption & Saving," Journal of Economic Literature,
28 (June, 1990), pp. 565‑637.
"The Joint Retirement Decision of Husbands and
Wives," in Issues in the Economics
of Aging, D. Wise (editor), The University of Chicago Press, 1990, pp. 231‑254.
"Employee Benefits and Retirement Income
Adequacy: Data, Research and Policy
Issues," (with Emily Andrews) in Z. Bodie and A. Munnell (editors) Pensions and the Economy,
Philadelphia: The University of
Pennsylvania Press, 1992, pp. 1-30.
"Wealth Depletion and Life‑Cycle
Consumption by the Elderly," in Topics in the Economics of Aging, Ed:
David Wise, Chicago: The University of
Chicago Press, 1992, pp. 135-160.
"The Economics of Aging," in Gerontechnology, Editors: H. Bousma and
J. Graafmans, Amsterdam: IOS Press, 1992, pp. 15-30.
"Simplified Estimation of a Nonlinear
Simultaneous Equations Model with Censoring;† A Monte Carlo Study," (with
H.K. Lee), The Journal of Statistical
Computation and Simulation, 43 (1992), pp. 55-75.
"The Effect of Changes in Social Security on
Bequests," Journal of Economics,
Supplement 7, Bernhard Felderer, ed., 1993, pp. 157-176.
"Measuring the Bequest Motive: The Effect of Children on Saving by the
Elderly in the U.S." Savings and
Bequests, Toshiaki Tachibanaki (editor), Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1994, pp.
111-136.
"The Economic Status of the Elderly in the
United States," in Aging in the
United States and in Japan, Economic
Trends, Eds.: Yukio Noguchi and
David A. Wise, Chicago: University of
Chicago Press, 1994, pp. 63-83.
"Evaluation of the Subjective Probabilities of
Survival in the HRS," with Kathleen McGarry, Journal of Human Resources, 30, 1995, S268-S292.
"Household Saving Rates in Korea: Evidence on Life-Cycle Consumption
Behavior," with H. K. Lee, The
Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 9, 1995, pp. 174-199.
"The Effect of Labor Market Rigidities on the
Labor Force Behavior of Older Workers," in D. Wise, ed., Advances in the Economics of Aging, Chicago:
University of Chicago Press, 1996, pp. 11-58.
"Changing Social Security Survivorship Benefits
and the Poverty of Widows," with David Wise, in Hurd and Yashiro, eds., The Economic Effects of Aging in the United
States and Japan, University of Chicago Press, 1997, pp. 319-332.
"The Effects of Demographic Trends on Consumption,
Saving and Government Expenditures in the U.S.," in Hurd and Yashiro,
eds., The Economic Effects of Aging in
the United States and Japan, University of Chicago Press, 1997, pp. 39-57.
"Tests of the Permanent Income-Life Cycle
Hypothesis based on Household-level Panel Data from Korea," with H.K. Lee,
The Journal of the Japanese and
International Economies, 1997, 11 (March), pp. 105-122.
"The Economics of Individual Aging," The Handbook of Population and Family
Economics, Mark R. Rosenzweig and Oded Stark (editors), North Holland
Press, 1997, pp. 891-966.
“Medical Insurance and the Use of Health Care
Services by the Elderly,” with Kathleen McGarry, Journal of Health Economics,
16, 1997, pp. 129-154.
“Asset and Health Dynamics Among the Oldest-Old: An Overview of the Survey,” with Beth Soldo,
Willard Rodgers, and Robert Wallace, Journal of Gerontology, 1997, vol. 52B, (May) pp 1-20.
“Adequacy and Equity Issues: Another View,” in Social Security in the 21st Century, Eric R. Kingson and James H. Schulz (editors), 1997, New
York: Oxford University Press, pp.
219-224.
"Subjective Survival Curves and Life Cycle
Behavior," with Daniel McFadden, and Li Gan, in Inquiries in the Economics of Aging, David Wise, ed., 1998,
Chicago: University of Chicago Press,
pp. 259-305.
“Household Wealth of the Elderly under Alternative
Imputation Procedures," with Hilary Hoynes and Harish Chand, in Inquiries in the Economics of Aging,
David Wise, ed., 1998, Chicago:
University of Chicago Press, pp. 229-257.
“Consumption and Saving Balances of the
Elderly: Experimental Evidence on
Survey Response Bias,” with Dan McFadden, Harish Chand, Li Gan, Angela Merrill
and Michael Roberts, in D. Wise, ed., Frontiers in the Economics of Aging,
1998, Chicago: University of Chicago Press,
pp 353-387.
"Labor Market Transitions in the HRS: Effects of the Subjective Probability of
Retirement and of Pension Eligibility," in Wealth, Work and Health: Innovations in Measurement in the Social
Sciences, James P. Smith and Robert Willis, editors, 1999, University of
Michigan Press, pp 267-290.
“The Association of Influenza Vaccine Receipt with
Health and Economic Expectations among Elders:
The AHEAD Study,” with Robert B. Wallace and Sara Nichols, in Wealth, Work and Health: Innovations in Measurement in the Social
Sciences, James P. Smith and Robert Willis, editors, 1999, University of
Michigan Press, pp. 326-334.
“Anchoring and Acquiescence Bias in Measuring Assets in Household Surveys,” Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 19 (1-3), 1999, pp 111-136.
“L’invecchiamento
della popolazione. Conseguenze per
l’individuo, la famiglia, la società,”
(“An Aging Population: Consequences for the Individual, the Family and
Society”), Biblioteca della liberta,
151, 1999, pp1-14.
“Predictors of Mortality among the Elderly,” with
Daniel McFadden and Angela Merrill, in Themes
in the Economics of Aging, David Wise, editor, 2001, Chicago: University of
Chicago Press, pp 171-197.
“Anticipated and Actual Bequests,” with James P.
Smith, in Themes in the Economics of
Aging, David Wise, editor, 2001, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, pp
357-389.
“Portfolio Holdings of the Elderly,” in Household Portfolios, Luigi Guiso,
Michael Haliassos, and Tullio Jappelli, editors, 2001, Cambridge, MA: MIT
Press, pp 431-472.
"The Predictive Validity of Subjective
Probabilities of Survival,” with Kathleen McGarry, forthcoming in The Economic Journal, October, 2002.
“Enhancing the Quality of Data on Income: Recent Innovations from the HRS,” with F.
Thomas Juster and James P. Smith, forthcoming, Journal of Human Resources.
“Healthy, Wealthy and Wise? Tests for Direct Causal Paths,” with Peter
Adams, Daniel McFadden, Angela Merrill and Tiago Ribeiro, forthcoming, Journal
of Econometrics.
“Forecasting the Nursing Home Population,” with
Darius Lakdawalla, Dana P. Goldman, Jay Bhattacharya, Geoffrey F. Joyce, and
Constantijn W.A. Panis, forthcoming, Medical Care.
Notes and Comments
"Comment on The Dissaving of the Elderly: Tests of the Pure Life Cycle Hypothesis of Consumption,'" (by
B. D. Bernheim) in Issues in Pension
Economics, J. Shoven (editor), The University of Chicago Press, 1987, pp.
275‑279.
"Comment on
Pensions and Turnover,'" (by E. Lazear and R. Moore) in Pensions in the U.S. Economy, Z. Bodie,
J. Shoven and D. Wise (editors), The University of Chicago Press, 1988, pp. 188‑190.
"Comment on
The Dynamics of Housing Demand by the Elderly: User Cost Effects,'" (by C. Ai, J. Feinstein, D. McFadden,
and H. Pollakowski) in Issues in the
Economics of Aging, D. Wise (editor), The University of Chicago Press,
1990, pp. 82‑87.
"Comment on The Impact of the Demographic
Transition on Government Spending,'" (by John Shoven, Michael Topper and
David Wise) in Studies in the Economics
of Aging, D. Wise (editor), The University of Chicago Press, 1994.
"Comment on Projecting the Future Size and
Health Status of the U.S. Elderly Population' (by Kenneth Manton, Burt Singer
and Eric Stallard), and on
Uncertainties and New Evidence about the Prospects for Longer Life
Expectancy,'" (by James Vaupel) in Studies
in the Economics of Aging, D. Wise (editor), The University of Chicago
Press, 1994.
“Comment on
Longevity-Insured Retirement Distributions from Pension Plans: Market and
Regulatory Issues,” (by Jeffrey R. Brown and Mark J. Warshawsky), presented at
the conference on Public Policies and Private Pensions, The Brookings
Institution, Washington DC, September, 2000
Book Reviews
An
Introduction to Applied Macroeconomics by Edwin Kuh and Richard Schmalensee, in Journal of Econometrics, 1 (1973), pp.
403‑406.
The Wharton
Quarterly Econometric Forecasting Model Mark III by Michael McCarthy, in Journal of the American Statistical Association,
68 (December, 1973), pp. 1025‑1027.
Econometric
Studies of Macro and Monetary Relations, Alan Powell and Ross Williams (editors), in Journal of the American Statistical
Association, 69 (September 1974), pp. 833‑834.
Economics of
Population Aging by James Schulz, Allan Borowski and William Crown, in The Journal of Economic Literature, XXX
(3) September, 1992, pp. 1529-1531.
Selected Unpublished Papers
"The Marginal Value of Social Security,"
NBER Working Paper 2411, October, 1987.
"Some Doubts about the Empirical Relevance of
the Strategic Bequest Motive," with Du Wang, presented at the NBER Summer
Institute, July, 1991.
"Forecasting the Consumption, Income and Wealth
of the Elderly," final report to the Social Security Administration, February,
1992.
"Population Aging and the Saving Rate: The Effect of Mortality Risk on Saving by
the Elderly," presented at the European Science Foundation Conference on
the Economics of Aging, San Felieu de Guixols, Spain, October, 1992.
"The Relationship Between Job Characteristics
and Retirement," with Kathleen McGarry, presented at the HRS Early Results
Workshop, Ann Arbor, September, 1993, and NBER Working Paper 4558.
"The Adequacy of Retirement Resources and the
Role of Pensions," presented at the Conference on New Perspectives on
Public Policy Towards Pensions, Washington, D.C., October, 1993.
"Using
Subjective Survival Probabilities in Life-Cycle Models," presented at the
Conference on Savings and Retirement, Venice, Italy, January, 1995.
"Wealth,
Subjective Survival Probabilities, and Social Security Wealth," with
Hilary Hoynes and Harish Chand, presented at the NBER Conference on the
Economics of Aging, The Boulders, May, 1995.
"Social Security: The Public Pension System of the U.S.," presented at the EISS Conference on Social
Security, Dublin, September, 1995
"Mortality Risk and Consumption by
Couples," presented at the
IFS-Bank of Portugal Conference on The Microeconomics of Saving and Consumption
Growth, Lisbon, November, 1995, revised, January, 1997, and NBER Working paper
7048, March, 1999
"Public and Private Pensions and their Effect
on Retirement," presented at the International Symposium on
"Scenarios to a Vital Aged Society," Tokyo, December, 1996
“The Relationship Between Personality Measures and
Family Status and Economic Outcomes,” with Karen Swallen , presented at the
TMR/Center conference on savings, Tilburg, The Netherlands, July, 1997, and at
the Genontological Society meetings, Cincinnati, November, 1997
“Healthy, Wealthy and Wise? Socioeconomic Status, Morbidity and Mortality among the Elderly,” with Daniel McFadden and Angela Merrill, presented at the TMR Conference on Saving, Tilburg, The Netherlands, July, 1998, and at the NBER Summer Institute, 1998
“An
Analysis of the Choice to Cash-Out, Maintain, or Annuitize Pension Rights At
Job Change or Retirement,” with Lee Lillard and Constantijn Panis, presented at
the NBER Summer Institute, 1998, RAND DRU-1979-DOL, October 1998.
“The Effects of Bracketing and Anchoring on Measurement in the Health and Retirement Study,” with Willard Rodgers, presented at the PSID “Conference on Data Quality in Longitudinal Surveys,” October, 1998, University of Michigan.
“Health, Wealth, and the Role of Institutions,” with
Arie Kapteyn, presented at the 8th TMR Conference on Saving, Paris, October,
2000 and at the PSID Conference on Cross‑National Comparative Research
Using Panel Surveys, Ann Arbor, October, 2000; revised March, 2001
“Saving
for Retirement: Self-Assessed Savings
Adequacy and Savings Plans,” with Julie M. Zissimopoulos, presented at the 8th
TMR Conference on Saving, Paris, October, 2000
“Comparing Disability Growth among the Young and
Old,” with Darius Lakdawalla, Jay Bhattacharya, Dana P. Goldman, Geoffrey F.
Joyce, and Constantijn W.A. Panis, RAND mimeo, March, 2001
“The Effects of
Subjective Survival on Retirement and Social Security Claiming,” with James P.
Smith and Julie M. Zissimopoulos, presented at the Retirement Research
Conference, May, 2001
“Recovering True
Distributions from Bracketed Responses,” with Arie Kapteyn and Julie M.
Zissimopoulos, presented at the TMR Conference on Saving and Pensions, Evian,
France,
August, 2001
“The Effects of Large Capital Gains on Work and
Consumption: Evidence from four waves
of the HRS,” with Monika Reti, RAND typescript, October, 2001.
“Are Bequests Accidental or Desired?” presented at
the conference on The Role and Impact of Gifts and Estates, Woodstock, VT,
October, 2001.
“Expected Bequests and their Distribution,” with James
P. Smith, RAND typescript, February, 2002