Born November 15, 1929
    U.S. citizen
    Professor of Economics and Finance, University of Pennsylvania


    Instructor in Economics, Carnegie Institute of Technology, 1956-62
    Assistant Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1957-62
    Associate Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1962-64
    Consulting Economist to the International Monetary Fund 1959
    Consultant, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 1966
    Visiting Professor of Economics, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics, Catholic University of Louvain, Belgium, 1970-71
    Visiting Professor of Economics, University of Bonn, West Germany, 1977-78
    Visiting Professor of Economics, Institute for International Studies in Economics, University of Stockholm, Sweden, 1977-78
    Consultant, Bank of Italy, 1982 - to date
    Consultant, Economic Research Institute, Economic Planning Agency, Government of Japan, 1983-85
    Member, Board of Directors, National Bureau of Economic Research, 1983-86
    Research Associate, National Bureau of Economic Research, 1986 - to date
    Chairman, Graduate Group in Economics, University of Pennsylvania, 1986-89
    Member, Advisory Panel, National Science Foundation,Committee on Advanced Scientific Computing, 1987-89


B.S. (Economics) Seattle University, 1951
M.A. (Economics) St. Louis University, 1953
M.S. (Economics) Carnegie Institute of Technology, 1956
Ph.D. (Mathematical Economics) Carnegie Institute of Technology, 1959


Fellow, The Econometric Society
Ford Foundation Faculty Research Fellow, 1966-67
John Simon Guggenheim Fellow, 1970-71
Alexander von Humboldt Award for Senior American Scientists, 1977-78
Japan Foundation Fellow, 1982-84


Chairman, Program Committee, Winter Meetings of the Econometric Society, 1967
Chairman, Subcommittee on Monetary Research, Social Science Research Council, 1967-87
Chairman, Conference on International Aspects of Stabilization Policies, International Seminar in Public Economics, 1973-74
Member, Board of Editors, American Economic Association, 1977-80
Associate Editor, Journal of American Statistical Association, 1966-69
Associate Editor, Journal of American Statistical Association, 1972-76
Associate Editor, Journal of Econometrics, 1972-76
Associate Editor, Encyclopedia of Economics: Fundamentals of Pure and Applied Economics, 1982



  1. Essays on Social Sciences Models, with H.A. Simon and F. M. Fisher(MIT Press, Cambridge,Mass.,1963)

  2. Studies in Stabilization Policies, with E. Cary Brown, Ann F. Friedlaender, et. al., The Brookings Institution: Washington DC, 1968

  3. International Aspects of Stabilization Policies , editor, published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, 1975

  4. Monetary Policy in Our Times , co-editor, Bank of Japan Conference Volume, MIT Press, 1984

  5. The Structure and Reform of the U.S. Tax System, MIT Press, 1985 (with Marshall Blume and Irwin Friend)

  6. Consumption and Saving Based on the Life Cycle Hypothesis (Analysis of the High Savings Rate of Japanese Households Based on the National Survey of Family Income and Expenditure), ECONOMIC ANALYSIS, No.101, January 1986, Economic Planning Government of Japan

  7. Saving and the Accumulation of Wealth: Essays on Italian Household and Government Saving Behavior; edited by Albert Ando, Luigi Guiso, & Ignazio Visco, Cambridge University Press, U.K., and New York, 1994

  8. Micro Simulation Analysis of Aggregate Savings Behavior in Japan, Vol. 9, no. 1, National Institute for Research Advancement, Tokyo, 1996
  1. "The Redistributional Effects of Inflation", Review of Economics and Statistics, February 1959 (with G.L.Bach)

  2. "Tests of the Life Cycle Hypothesis of Saving", Bulletin of the Oxford University Institute of Statistics, May 1957 (with F.Modigliani)

  3. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Fluctuations and Growth", Ph.D. thesis submitted to Carnegie Institute of Technology, 1959

  4. "Growth, Fluctuations and Stability", American Economic Review, May 1959 (with F. Modigliani)

  5. "Aggregation of Variables in Dynamic Systems", Econometrica, January 1969 (with H. A. Simon)

  6. "The 'Permanent Income and the 'Life Cycle' Hypothesis of Saving Behavior: Comparison and Tests", (with F. Modigliani) in Consumption and Saving, Vol.II, University of Pennsylvania,1961, edited by I.Friend and R.Jones.

  7. "Two Theorems in Ceteris Paribus in the Analysis of Dynamic Systems", The American Political Science Review, March 1962 (with F.M. Fisher)

  8. "Near-Decomposability, Partition and Aggregation and the Relevance of Stability Discussions", International Economic Review, February 1963 (with F.M.Fisher)

  9. "The Life Cycle Hypothesis of Saving: Aggregate Implication and Tests", American Economic Review, March 1963 (with F.Modigliani)

  10. "An Empirical Model of the U.S. Economic Growth: An Explanatory Study in Applied Capital Theory", Proceedings of the Conference on Income and Wealth, 1962. National Bureau of Economic Research, Vol.28, Models of Income Determination (Princeton University Press: Princeton, NJ, 1963)

  11. "Lags in Fiscal and Monetary Policy", with E.C.Brown, J. Karaken and R.M.Solow, in Stabilization Policies, papers prepared for the Commission on Money and Credit, (Prentice- -Hall: Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 1963)

  12. "Government Revenues and Expenditures", with E.C.Brown and E.Adams, in The Brookings Quarterly Econometric Model of the U.S., James Duesenberry, Garry Fromm, Lawrence R.Klein and Edward Kuh, editors, (Rand-McNally and North Holland Publishing Cos., 1965

  13. "Bayesian Analysis of the Independent Multinormal Process", Journal of American Statistical Association , March 1965 (with Gordon Kaufman)

  14. "The Relative Stability of Monetary Velocity and the Investment Multiplier", American Economic Review, September 1965 (with F.M.Modigliani)

  15. "Evaluation of an Ad Hoc Procedure for Estimation Parameters of Some Linear Models", Review of Economics and Statistics, 1966 (with G. Kaufman)

  16. "Bayesian Analysis of Reduced From Systems", with Gordon M.Kaufman, Alfred P.Sloan, School of Management, Working Paper No.98-64, August 1964

  17. "Extended Natural Conjugate Distribution for the Multinormal Process", with Gordon M.Kaufman, Alfred P.Sloan, School of Management, Working Paper No.80-64, October 1964

  18. "Econometric Analysis of Stabilization Policies", American Economic Review , May 1969 (with F.Modigliani)

  19. "On a Problem of Aggregation", International Economic Review, October 1971

  20. "On the Role of Expectation of Price Changes and Technological Change in an Investment Function", with Franco Modigliani, Robert Rasche, and Stephen Turnovsky, International Economic Review , June 1974

  21. "Some Aspects of Stabilization Policies, the Monetarist Controversy, and the MPS Model", International Economic Review , October 1974

  22. "Some Reflections on Describing Structure of Financial Sectors", The Brookings Model: Perspective and Recent Developments, ed. by L. R. Klein and G. Fromm, North-Holland Publishing Co.,Netherlands, 1975

  23. "Some Stabilization Problems of 1971-75 with an Application of Optimal Control Algorithms", in Frontiers of Quantitative Economics, ed. by M. Intrilligator, North-Holland Publishing Co., 1975

  24. "Impact of Fiscal Actions on Aggregate Income and the Monetarist Controversy: Theory and Evidence", in Proceedings of Brown University Conference on Monetarism, ed., by Jerome Stein, 1975 (with F. Modigliani)

  25. "On the Application of Optimal Control to Large Scale Econometric Models", Management Science, 1977 (with C. Palash and A. Norman)

  26. "Design of Financial Sectors in an Econometric Model of an Open Economy", CNRS-NSF Conference Proceedings, 1977

  27. "Contributions of Herbert A. Simon", Scandinavian Journal of Economics, January 1979

  28. "On Financial and External Sectors of a Macroeconometric Model and Problems of Their Estimation", Proceedings of the Conference, Bilateral Economic Modeling Conference, July 1978, London

  29. "On a Theoretical and Empirical Basis of Macroeconometric Models", in Proceedings of the Conference on Methodology of Large-Scale Econometric Models, edited by J. Kmenta, North- Holland Publishing Co., 1981

  30. "Role of Monetary and Financial Sectors in Functioning of Advanced National Economies", in Proceedings of the Rome Conference on Monetary and Financial Models, edited by Raymond Courbis, 1980

  31. "Equilibrium Business Cycle Models: An Appraisal", in Global Econometrics: Essays in Honor of Lawrence R. Klein, edited by F. G. Adams and Bert H. Hickman, MIT Press, 1983

  32. "Interaction between Fiscal and Monetary Policy and the Real Rate of Interest", AEA Papers and Proceedings, 1984 (with Robert Anderson and Jared Enzler)

  33. "Some Results on Analytic Optimal Control Solution of a Simple Rational Expectations Model", Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 1985, pp. 55-61 (with Arthur Kennickell)

  34. "How Much (or Little) Life Cycle is there in Micro Data? Cases of U.S. and Japan", Macroeconomics and Finance: Essays in Honor of Franco Modigliani, MIT Press , 1986 (with Arthur Kennickell)

  35. "Reflections on Some Recent Evidence on the Life Cycle Hypothesis of Savings", Essays in Financial Economics, edited by Marshall Sarnat and G.P. Szego, North- Holland, 1987

  36. "Report on the Efficiency of CYBER 205 for Solving Simultaneous Nonlinear Dynamic Systems of Equations", International Journal of Supercomputer Applications, 1987, Vol.1, No. 4 (with Paul Beaumont and Mattew Ando)

  37. "The Corporate Costs of Capital in Japan and U.S.: A Comparison", Government Policy Towards Industry in the United States and Japan, ed. by John Shoven, Cambridge University Press, 1988 (with Alan Auerbach)

  38. "The Cost of Capital in the United States and Japan: A Comparison", Journal of Japanese and International Economies, Vol.2, No.2, 1988 (with Alan Auerbach) Life Cycle and Bequest Savings", Journal of Japanese and International Economies, 1988, Vol.2 ,No.4 (with Fumio Hayashi and Richard Ferris)

  39. "Comment on 'Consumption, Income, and Interest Rates: The Euler Equation Approach Ten Years Later by John Campbell and Gregory Mankiw", Annual Conference Volume on Macroeconomics, National Bureau of Economic Research, 1989

  40. "Reappraisal of the Phillips Curve and Direct Effects of Money Supply on Inflation", Comparative Performance of U.S. Econometric Models, Oxford University Press, 1991 (with Flint Brayton and Arthur Kennickell)

  41. "The Cost of Capital in Japan: Recent Evidence and Further Results", Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 4, pp. 323-350, 1990 (with Alan Auerbach)

  42. "Younger Households Savings: Evidence from Japan and Italy", The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 2, 1991 (with Daniel Dorsainvil, Luigi Guiso and Daniele Terlizzese)

  43. "The corporate Cost of Capital in Japan", The New Palgrave Dictionary of Money and Finance, MacMillan Press Reference Books, London,1992

  44. "Dissaving by Elderly, Transfer Motives and Liquidity Constraints", with Luigi Guiso and Daniele Terlizzese, in Saving and the Accumulation of Wealth; Essays on Italian Household and Government Saving Behavior, ed. by Albert Ando, Luigi Guiso and Ignazio Visco, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, 1994

  45. "Young Household's Saving and the Life Cycle Oppurtunities", with Luigi Guiso and Daniele Terlizzese in Albert Ando, et. al., eds., Saving and the Accumulation of Wealth, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U. K., and N. Y., N. Y. 1994

  46. "Demography and Aggregate Saving", in Economic Development of ROC and Pacific Rim in 1990's and Beyond, ed. by L. R. Klein, World Scientific Publishing Co., Singapore, 1994

  47. "Prices , Wages, and Employment in the U.S. Economy: A Traditional Model and Tests of some Alternatives", in Natural Rate of Unemployment: Reflections on 25 years of the Hypothesis, edited by Rod Cross,Cambridge Univeersity Press, Cambridge,U. K., and N. Y., N. Y. 1995.

  48. Economic Impact of Aging Population and Design of Policies to deal with its consequences, a monograph prepared for National Institute for Research Advancement, Tokyo, Japan, under a grant from NIRA. To be published by NIRA, 1995.

  49. "Dynamics of Demographic Development and its Impact on Personal Saving: Case of Japan" with Andrea Moro, Juan Pablo Cordoba, and Gonzalo Garland, Ricerche Economiche, pp. 179-205, 1995

  50. "Demographic Dynamics, Labor Force Participation and Household Asset Accumulation: Case of Japan", with Andrea Moro NBER Working Paper #5261, Cambridge, MA 1995

  51. "Cost of Capital for the United States, Japan, and Canada: an attempt at measurement based on individual company records and aggregate national accounts data", with John Hancock, and Gary Sawchuk NBER Working Paper #5884, Cambridge, MA 1997