NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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Sang Hoon Kong

Dept. of Economics
Columbia University
420 West 118th Street MC 3308
New York, NY 10027
United States

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Institutional Affiliation: Columbia University

NBER Working Papers and Publications

May 2020The Effect of the U.S.-China Trade War on U.S. Investment
with Mary Amiti, David Weinstein: w27114
We develop a new method of quantifying the impact of policy announcements on investment rates that makes use of stock market data. By estimating the effect of U.S.-China tariff announcements on aggregate returns and the differential returns of firms exposed to China, we identify their effect on treated and untreated firms. We show theoretically and empirically that estimates of policy-induced stock-market declines imply lower returns to capital, which lowers investment rates. We estimate that the tariff actions through 2018 and 2019 will lower the investment growth rate of listed U.S. companies by 1.9 percentage points by the end of 2020.
 
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