NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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Mehmet Fatih Ulu

Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey
Fener Kalamis cad.
Atlihan Sok. No:30/A
Fenerbahce Kadikoy Istanbul
Turkey

E-Mail: fatih.ulu@tcmb.gov.tr
Institutional Affiliation: Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

NBER Working Papers and Publications

February 2017International Spillovers and Local Credit Cycles
with Julian di Giovanni, Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Yusuf Soner Baskaya: w23149
This paper studies the transmission of the Global Financial Cycle (GFC) to domestic credit market conditions in a large emerging market, Turkey, over the years 2003-13. Matching administrative data covering the universe of corporate loan transactions to bank balance sheets, we document four facts: (1) an easing in global financial conditions leads to lower borrowing costs and an increase in local lending; (2) domestic banks that are more exposed to international capital markets transmit the GFC locally; (3) the fall in borrowing costs is driven by a failure in uncovered interest rate parity (UIP), where the UIP risk premium comoves with the GFC over time; (4) data on posted collateral for new loan issuances show that collateral constraints do not relax during the boom phase of the GFC.
October 2016Capital Flows and the International Credit Channel
with Yusuf Soner Baskaya, Julian di Giovanni, Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, José-Luis Peydro
in NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2016, Richard Clarida, Lucrezia Reichlin, and Michael Devereux, organizers
 
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