NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Guido Matias Cortes

Economics - School of Social Sciences
Arthur Lewis Building
Manchester, United Kingdom, M13 9PL

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NBER Working Papers and Publications

December 2016Disappearing Routine Jobs: Who, How, and Why?
with Nir Jaimovich, Henry E. Siu: w22918
We study the deterioration of employment in middle-wage, routine occupations in the United States in the last 35 years. The decline is primarily driven by changes in the propensity to work in routine jobs for individuals from a small set of demographic groups. These same groups account for a substantial fraction of both the increase in non-employment and employment in low-wage, non-routine manual occupations observed during the same time period. We analyze a general neoclassical model of the labor market featuring endogenous participation and occupation choice. We show that in response to an increase in automation technology, the model embodies an important tradeoff between reallocating employment across occupations and reallocation of workers towards non-employment. Quantitatively, we fin...

Published: Guido Matias Cortes & Nir Jaimovich & Henry E. Siu, 2017. "Disappearing Routine Jobs: Who, How, and Why?," Journal of Monetary Economics, .

July 2014The Micro and Macro of Disappearing Routine Jobs: A Flows Approach
with Nir Jaimovich, Christopher J. Nekarda, Henry E. Siu: w20307
The U.S. labor market has become increasingly polarized since the 1980s, with the share of employment in middle-wage occupations shrinking over time. This job polarization process has been associated with the disappearance of per capita employment in occupations focused on routine tasks. We use matched individual-level data from the CPS to study labor market flows into and out of routine occupations and determine how this disappearance has played out at the "micro" and "macro" levels. At the macro level, we determine which changes in transition rates account for the disappearance of routine employment since the 1980s. We find that changes in three transition rate categories are of primary importance: (i) that from unemployment to employment in routine occupations, (ii) that from labor forc...
 
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