Guido Matias Cortes

Department of Economics
York University
4700 Keele Street
Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3

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NBER Working Papers and Publications

February 2018The "End of Men" and Rise of Women in the High-Skilled Labor Market
with Nir Jaimovich, Henry E. Siu: w24274
We document a new finding regarding changes in labor market outcomes for men and women in the US. Since 1980, conditional on being a college-educated man, the probability of working in a cognitive/high-wage occupation has fallen. This contrasts starkly with the experience for college-educated women: their probability of working in these occupations rose, despite a much larger increase in the supply of educated women relative to men. We consider these facts in light of a general neoclassical model of the labor market. One key channel capable of rationalizing these findings is a greater increase in the demand for female-oriented skills in cognitive/high-wage occupations relative to other occupations. Using occupation-level data, we find evidence that this relative increase in the demand for ...
December 2016Disappearing Routine Jobs: Who, How, and Why?
with Nir Jaimovich, Henry E. Siu: w22918
We study the deterioration of employment in middle-wage, routine occupations in the United States in the last 35 years. The decline is primarily driven by changes in the propensity to work in routine jobs for individuals from a small set of demographic groups. These same groups account for a substantial fraction of both the increase in non-employment and employment in low-wage, non-routine manual occupations observed during the same time period. We analyze a general neoclassical model of the labor market featuring endogenous participation and occupation choice. We show that in response to an increase in automation technology, the model embodies an important tradeoff between reallocating employment across occupations and reallocation of workers towards non-employment. Quantitatively, we fin...

Published: Guido Matias Cortes & Nir Jaimovich & Henry E. Siu, 2017. "Disappearing Routine Jobs: Who, How, and Why?," Journal of Monetary Economics, . citation courtesy of

July 2014The Micro and Macro of Disappearing Routine Jobs: A Flows Approach
with Nir Jaimovich, Christopher J. Nekarda, Henry E. Siu: w20307
The U.S. labor market has become increasingly polarized since the 1980s, with the share of employment in middle-wage occupations shrinking over time. This job polarization process has been associated with the disappearance of per capita employment in occupations focused on routine tasks. We use matched individual-level data from the CPS to study labor market flows into and out of routine occupations and determine how this disappearance has played out at the "micro" and "macro" levels. At the macro level, we determine which changes in transition rates account for the disappearance of routine employment since the 1980s. We find that changes in three transition rate categories are of primary importance: (i) that from unemployment to employment in routine occupations, (ii) that from labor forc...
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