NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Giorgio Valente

Department of Finance
Faculty of Business Administration
the Chinese University of Hong Kong
Shatin, N.T.
Hong Kong
Tel: (852) 2609 7443
Fax: (852) 2603 6586

E-Mail: valente@baf.msmail.cuhk.edu.hk

NBER Working Papers and Publications

November 2001The Out-of-Sample Success of Term Structure Models as Exchange Rate Predictors: A Step Beyond
with Richard Clarida, Lucio Sarno, Mark Taylor: w8601
A large literature suggests that standard exchange rate models cannot outperform a random walk forecast and that the forward rate is not an optimal predictor of the spot rate. However, there is evidence that the term structure of forward premia contains valuable information for forecasting future spot exchange rates and that exchange rate dynamics display nonlinearities. This paper proposes a term-structure forecasting model of exchange rates based on a regime-switching vector equilibrium correction model which is novel in this context. Our model significantly outperforms both a random walk and a linear term-structure vector equilibrium correction model for four major dollar rates across a range of horizons.

Published: Clarida, Richard H. & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P. & Valente, Giorgio, 2003. "The out-of-sample success of term structure models as exchange rate predictors: a step beyond," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 61-83, May. citation courtesy of

 
Publications
Activities
Meetings
NBER Videos
Themes
Data
People
About

National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Ave., Cambridge, MA 02138; 617-868-3900; email: info@nber.org

Contact Us