NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
College of Business
University of Arkansas
NBER Working Papers and Publications
|February 2006||Do Hot Hands Exist Among Hedge Fund Managers? An Empirical Evaluation|
with Ravi Jagannathan, Dmitry Novikov: w12015
We examine whether hot hands exist among hedge fund managers. In measuring performance persistence, we use hedge fund style benchmarks. This allows us to identify managers with valuable skills, and also to control for option-like features inherent in returns from hedge fund strategies. We take into account the possibility that reported asset values may be based on stale prices. We develop a statistical model that relates a hedge fund's performance to its decision to liquidate or close in order to infer the performance of a hedge fund that left the database. While we find significant performance persistence among superior funds we find little evidence of persistence among inferior funds.
“Do Hot Hands Exist Among Hedge Fund Managers? An Empirical Evaluation.” forthcoming in Journal of Finance 2009 citation courtesy of