NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Andrew Stokes

Population Studies Center
McNeil Bldg, 3718 Locust Walk
University of Pennsylvania
Philadelphia, PA 19104

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NBER Working Papers and Publications

September 2012Projecting the Effect of Changes in Smoking and Obesity on Future Life Expectancy in the United States
with Samuel H. Preston, Neil K. Mehta, Bochen Cao: w18407
We project the effects of declining smoking and increasing obesity on mortality in the United States over the period 2010-2040. Data on cohort behavioral histories are integrated into these projections. Future distributions of body mass indices are projected using transition matrices applied to the initial distribution in 2010. In addition to projections of current obesity, we project distributions of obesity when cohorts were age 25. To these distributions we apply death rates by current and age-25 obesity status observed in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 1988-2006. Projections of the effects of smoking are based on observed relations between cohort smoking patterns and cohort death rates from lung cancer. We find that both changes in smoking and in obesity are expe...

Published: Demography201351:246 DOI: 10.1007/s13524-013-0246-9 Projecting the Effect of Changes in Smoking and Obesity on Future Life Expectancy in the United States Samuel H. Preston1 , Andrew Stokes1, Neil K. Mehta2 and Bochen Cao1

 
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