TY - JOUR AU - Bernard,Andrew B. AU - Jensen,J. Bradford AU - Schott,Peter K. TI - Falling Trade Costs, Heterogeneous Firms, and Industry Dynamics JF - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series VL - No. 9639 PY - 2003 Y2 - April 2003 UR - http://www.nber.org/papers/w9639 L1 - http://www.nber.org/papers/w9639.pdf N1 - Author contact info: Andrew Bernard Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth 100 Tuck Hall Hanover, NH 03755 Tel: 603/646-0302 Fax: 603/646-0995 E-Mail: Andrew.B.Bernard@dartmouth.edu J. Bradford Jensen McDonough School of Business Georgetown University Washington, DC 20057 Tel: 202/687-3767 E-Mail: jbj24@georgetown.edu Peter Schott Yale School of Management 135 Prospect Street New Haven, CT 06520-8200 Tel: 203/436-4260 Fax: 203/432-6974 E-Mail: peter.schott@yale.edu AB - This paper examines the response of industries and firms to changes in trade costs. Several new firm-level models of international trade with heterogeneous firms predict that industry productivity will rise as trade costs fall due to the reallocation of activity across plants within an industry. Using disaggregated U.S. import data, we create a new measure of trade costs over time and industries. As the models predict, productivity growth is faster in industries with falling trade costs. We also find evidence supporting the major hypotheses of the heterogenous-firm models. Plants in industries with falling trade costs are more likely to die or become exporters. Existing exporters increase their shipments abroad. The results do not apply equally across all sectors but are strongest for industries most likely to be producing horizontally-differentiated tradeable goods. ER -