TY  - JOUR
AU  - Rose,Andrew K.
TI  - Do We Really Know that the WTO Increases Trade?
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 9273
PY  - 2002
Y2  - October 2002
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w9273
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w9273.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Andrew K. Rose
Haas School of Business Administration
University of California, Berkeley
Berkeley, CA 94720-1900
Tel: 510/642-6609
Fax: 510/642-4700
E-Mail: arose@haas.berkeley.edu
AB  - This paper estimates the effect on international trade of multilateral trade agreements: the World Trade Organization (WTO), its predecessor the Generalized Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), and the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) extended from rich countries to developing countries. I use a standard  gravity' model of bilateral merchandise trade and a large panel data set covering over fifty years and 175 countries. An extensive search reveals little evidence that countries joining or belonging to the GATT/WTO have different trade patterns than outsiders. The GSP does seem to have a strong effect, and is associated with an approximate doubling of trade.
ER  -