TY  - JOUR
AU  - Brander,James A.
TI  - Election Polls, Free Trade, and the Stock Market:  Evidence from the    Canadian General Election
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 3073
PY  - 1989
Y2  - August 1989
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w3073
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w3073.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
James A. Brander
University of British Columbia
Faculty of Commerce
2053 Main Mall
Vancouver, B.C. V6T 1Z2  CANADA
Tel: 604/822-8483
Fax: 604/822-8477
E-Mail: brander@sauder.ubc.ca
AB  - This paper examines the relationship between the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSE) and election polls during the 1988 Canadian General Election campaign. Two hypotheses are investigated: first, did polls influence the TSE, and secondly, if so, did the nature of the influence suggest that investors were reacting to expectations concerning the effect of the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement (FTA)? I find that the TSE was positively related to Conservative popularity as measured by polls, but that the differential movement of TSE subindices does not offer additional support to an FTA based interpretation of events.
ER  -