TY  - JOUR
AU  - Zarnowitz,Victor
AU  - Braun,Phillip
TI  - Major Macroeconomic Variables and Leading Indexes:  Some Estimates of Their Interrelations, 1886-1982
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 2812
PY  - 1991
Y2  - August 1991
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w2812
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w2812.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Victor Zarnowitz
Conference Board
845 3rd Avenue
New York, NY 10022-6679
Tel: 212/339-0432
Fax: 212/836-9757
E-Mail: no email available

Phillip Braun
University of Chicago
E-Mail: phillip.braun@ChicagoBooth.edu
AB  - We examine the interactions within sets of up to six variables representing output, alternative measures of money and fiscal operations, inflation, interest rate, and indexes of selected leading indicators. Quarterly series are used, each taken with four lags, for three periods: 1949-82. 1919-40, and 1886-1914. The series are in stationary form, as indicated by unit root tests. For the early years, the quality of the available data presents some serious problems. We find evidence of strong effects on output of the leading indexes and the short-term interest rate. The monetary effects are greatly reduced when these variables are included. Most variables depend more on their own lagged values than on any other factors, but this is not true of the rates of change in output and the composite leading indexes. Some interesting interperiod differences are noted and discussed.
ER  -