TY  - JOUR
AU  - Katz,Lawrence F.
AU  - Meyer,Bruce D.
TI  - Unemployment Insurance, Recall Expectations, And Unemployment Outcomes
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 2594
PY  - 1991
Y2  - February 1991
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w2594
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w2594.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Lawrence F. Katz
Department of Economics
Harvard University
Cambridge, MA  02138
Tel: 617/495-5148
Fax: 617/613-1245
E-Mail: lkatz@harvard.edu

Bruce D. Meyer
Harris School of Public Policy
University of Chicago
1155 E. 60th Street
Chicago, IL 60637
Tel: 773/702-2712
Fax: 773/702-0926
E-Mail: bdmeyer@uchicago.edu
M2  - featured in NBER digest on 1988-12-01
AB  - This paper shows the importance of explicitly accounting for the possibility of recalls when analyzing the determinants of unemployment spell durations and the effects of unemployment insurance (UI) on unemployment outcomes in the United States. These issues are examined using a unique sample of UI recipients from Missouri and Pennsylvania covering unemployment spells in the 1979- 1981 period. We find that those expecting recall who are not recalled tend to have quite long unemployment spells. Furthermore, ex-ante temporary layoff spells (the spells of individuals' who initially expect to be recalled) may account for over 60 percent of the unemployment of UI recipients and appear to account for much more unemployment than ex-post temporary layoff spells (spells actually ending in recall). We estimate a competing risks model in which the finding of a new job and recall are treated as alternate routes of leaving unemployment. Our results using this approach show that the recall and new job exit probabilities have quite different time patterns and are often affected in opposite ways by explanatory variables. We also find that the probability of leaving unemployment (both through recalls and new job finding) increases greatly around the time that UI benefits lapse.
ER  -