TY  - JOUR
AU  - Campbell,John Y.
AU  - Mankiw,N. Gregory
TI  - International Evidence on the Persistence of Economic Fluctuations
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 2498
PY  - 1989
Y2  - October 1989
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w2498
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w2498.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
John Y. Campbell
Morton L. and Carole S.
Olshan Professor of Economics
Department of Economics
Harvard University
Littauer Center 213
Cambridge, MA 02138
Tel: 617/496-6448
Fax: 617/495-7730
E-Mail: john_campbell@harvard.edu

N. Gregory Mankiw
Department of Economics
Littauer 223
Harvard University
Cambridge, MA  02138
Tel: 617/495-4301
Fax: 617/495-7730
E-Mail: ngmankiw@fas.harvard.edu
M2  - featured in NBER digest on 1988-06-01
AB  - This paper presents new evidence on the persistence of fluctuations in real GNP. Two measures of persistence are estimated non-parametrically using post-war quarterly data from Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom. and the United States. These estimates are compared with Monte Carlo results from various AR(2) processes. For six out of seven countries, the results indicate that a 1 percent shock to output should change the long-run univariate forecast of output by well over I percent. Low-order ARM models for output growth are also estimated, and yield similar conclusions. Finally, the persistence in relative outputs of different countries is examined.
ER  -