TY  - JOUR
AU  - Harris,Jeffrey E.
TI  - Delay in Reporting Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS)
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 2278
PY  - 1987
Y2  - June 1987
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w2278
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w2278.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Jeffrey E. Harris
Department of Economics
MIT, Room E52-252F
50 Memorial Drive
Cambridge, MA  02139
Tel: 617/253-2677
Fax: NA
E-Mail: jeffrey@mit.edu
AB  - As of March 31, 1987, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control had reported 33,350 cases of acquired immune deficiency syndrome. Yet by that date, physicians had actually diagnosed 42,670 cases. The difference arises from significant delays in the reporting of AIDS cases to public health authorities. An estimated 70% of cases are reported two or more months after diagnosis; about 23% are reported seven or more months later; and about 5% take more than three years to come in. Moreover, the probability distribution of delays has been shifting to the right, with the median delay increasing by 0.6 months since mid-1986. From the data on reported cases and the estimated probability distribution of reporting delays, I reconstruct the actual incidence of AIDS from January 1982 through March 1987. The doubling time of the epidemic fell from about 6 months in 1982 to 15-16 months in 1986.
ER  -