TY  - JOUR
AU  - Berry,Steven T.
AU  - Roberts,Michael J.
AU  - Schlenker,Wolfram
TI  - Corn Production Shocks in 2012 and Beyond: Implications for Food Price Volatility
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 18659
PY  - 2012
Y2  - December 2012
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w18659
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w18659.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Steven T. Berry
Yale University Department of Economics
Box 208264
37 Hillhouse Avenue
New Haven, CT 06520-8264
Tel: 203/432-3556
Fax: 203/432-6323
E-Mail: steven.berry@yale.edu

Michael J. Roberts
Department of Economics 
University of Hawaii at Manoa
Saunders Hall 542 
2424 Maile Way
Honolulu, HI 96822
E-Mail: mjrobert@hawaii.edu

Wolfram Schlenker
Agricultural and Resource Economics
University of California at Berkeley
329 Giannini Hall
Berkeley, CA 94720
Tel: 510/643-9676
Fax: 510/643-8911
E-Mail: schlenker@berkeley.edu
M3  - presented at "The Economics of Food Price Volatility Conference", August 15-16, 2012
AB  - Corn prices increased sharply in the summer of 2012 due to expected production shortfalls in the United States, which produces roughly 40% of the world’s corn. A heat wave in July adversely affected corn production. We extend earlier statistical models of county-level corn yields in the Eastern United States by allowing the effect of various weather measures to vary in a flexible manner over the growing season: Extreme heat is especially harmful around a third into the growing season. This is the time when the 2012 heat wave hit the Corn Belt. Our model predicts 2012 corn yields will be 23% below trend. While extreme heat was significantly above normal, climate change scenarios suggest that the 2012 outcomes will soon be the new normal.
ER  -