TY  - JOUR
AU  - Schmitt-Grohé,Stephanie
AU  - Uribe,Martín
TI  - The Making Of A Great Contraction With  A Liquidity Trap and A Jobless Recovery
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 18544
PY  - 2012
Y2  - November 2012
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w18544
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w18544.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe
Department of Economics
Columbia University
New York, NY 10027
Tel: 212/854-8059
Fax: 212/854-4010
E-Mail: stephanie.schmittgrohe@columbia.edu

Martin Uribe
Department of Economics
Columbia University
International Affairs Building
New York, NY 10027
Tel: 212 851 4008
Fax: 212 854 8059
E-Mail: martin.uribe@columbia.edu
AB  - The great contraction of 2008 pushed the U.S. economy into a protracted liquidity trap (i.e., a long period with zero nominal interest rates and inflationary expectations below target). In addition, the recovery was jobless (i.e., output growth recovered but unemployment lingered). This paper presents a model that captures these three facts. The key elements of the model are downward nominal wage rigidity, a Taylor-type interest-rate feedback rule, the zero bound on nominal rates, and a confidence shock. Lack-of-confidence shocks play a central role in generating jobless recoveries, for fundamental shocks, such as disturbances to the natural rate, are shown to generate recessions featuring recoveries with job growth. The paper considers a monetary policy that can lift the economy out of the slump. Specifically, it shows that raising the nominal interest rate to its intended target for an extended period of time, rather than exacerbating the recession as conventional wisdom would have it, can boost inflationary expectations and thereby foster employment.
ER  -