TY  - JOUR
AU  - Bloom,David E.
AU  - Canning,David
AU  - Fink,Günther
TI  - Implications of Population Aging for Economic Growth
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 16705
PY  - 2011
Y2  - January 2011
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w16705
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w16705.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
David E. Bloom
Harvard School of Public Health
Department of Global Health and Population
665 Huntington Ave.
Boston, MA 02115
Tel: 617/432-0866
Fax: 617/432-6733
E-Mail: dbloom@hsph.harvard.edu

David Canning
Harvard School of Public Health
Department of Global Health and Population
665 Huntington Ave.
Boston, MA 02115
Tel: 617/432-6336
Fax: 617/566-0365
E-Mail: dcanning@hsph.harvard.edu

Günther Fink
Harvard School of Public Health
Department of Global Health and Population
665 Huntington Ave.
Boston, MA 02115
E-Mail: gfink@hsph.harvard.edu
M2  - featured in NBER digest on 2011-07-01
AB  - The share of the population aged 60 and over is projected to increase in nearly every country in the world during 2005-2050. Population ageing will tend to lower both labor-force participation and savings rates, thereby raising concerns about a future slowing of economic growth. Our calculations suggest that OECD countries are likely to see modest – but not catastrophic – declines in the rate of economic growth. However, behavioral responses (including greater female labor force participation) and policy reforms (including an increase in the legal age of retirement) can mitigate the economic consequences of an older population. In most non-OECD countries, declining fertility rates will cause labor-force-to-population ratios to rise as the shrinking share of young people will more than offset the skewing of adults toward the older ages. These factors suggest that population ageing will not significantly impede the pace of economic growth in developing countries.
ER  -