TY  - JOUR
AU  - Morck,Randall
AU  - Yeung,Bernard
TI  - Economics, History, and Causation
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 16678
PY  - 2011
Y2  - January 2011
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w16678
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w16678.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Randall Morck
Faculty of Business
University of Alberta
Edmonton, AB  T6G 2R6
CANADA
Tel: 780/492-5683
Fax: 780/492-3325
E-Mail: randall.morck@ualberta.ca

Bernard Yeung
National University of Singapore
Mochtar Riady Building
15 Kent Ridge Drive
BIZ 1, Level 6, #6-19
Singapore 119245
Tel: +65 6516 3075 
Fax: +65 6779 1365 
E-Mail: bizdean@nus.edu.sg
AB  - Economics and history both strive to understand causation: economics using instrumental variables econometrics and history by weighing the plausibility of alternative narratives. Instrumental variables can lose value with repeated use because of an econometric tragedy of the commons bias: each successful use of an instrument potentially creates an additional latent variable bias problem for all other uses of that instrument – past and future. Economists should therefore consider historians’ approach to inferring causality from detailed context, the plausibility of alternative narratives, external consistency, and recognition that free will makes human decisions intrinsically exogenous.
ER  -