TY  - JOUR
AU  - Hamilton,James D.
AU  - Owyang,Michael T.
TI  - The Propagation of Regional Recessions
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 16657
PY  - 2011
Y2  - January 2011
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w16657
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w16657.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
James D. Hamilton
Department of Economics, 0508
University of California, San Diego
9500 Gilman Drive
La Jolla, CA 92093-0508
Tel: 858/534-5986
Fax: 858/534-7040
E-Mail: jhamilton@ucsd.edu

Michael Owyang
Research Department
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
P.O. Box 442
St. Louis, MO 63166-0442
E-Mail: Michael.T.Owyang@stls.frb.org
AB  - This paper develops a framework for inferring common Markov-switching components in a panel data set with large cross-section and time-series dimensions.  We apply the framework to studying similarities and differences across U.S. states in the timing of business cycles.  We hypothesize that there exists a small number of cluster designations, with individual states in a given cluster sharing certain business cycle characteristics.  We find that although oil-producing and agricultural states can sometimes experience a separate recession from the rest of the United States, for the most part, differences across states appear to be a matter of timing, with some states entering recession or recovering before others.
ER  -